WTF is going on with the market???
- Thread starter heavenskrow
- Start date
What do you mean with that? Markets are all fully correlated in one way or another. Events in Ukraine do affect US equity futures in one way or another, and so does the devaluation of the Chinese Renminbi. Of course there is meaning in every event whether domestic or international. The US economy is as affected by global demand and global events as is the Chinese, Japanese, German and every other market.
Sure it says something but very little in the context of the big picture. Of course they will have to raise rates at some time. When you see ridiculous business models in the US valued at 30 billion dollars that does not tell you anything in regards to money in circulation?
My point was in regards to every last business TV channel, every Fed watcher, every Wall Street firm, every mutual fund firm, and every hedge fund talking about each little change in the probabilities of a September rate hike and it is ridiculous given that it may move markets for a few days but then larger players very quickly force short time divergences back to where prices should trade at. The Fed will raise rates or why do you think USDJPY trades at 125 levels? A full 24% higher than just a year ago. You might try to argue it has to do with Japan QE program but when you look at most rates that trade against the USD you will quickly notice it is mostly a USD driven market. Rate hikes have already been fully priced into the market a long time ago. If you do not trust me look at AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Aussie and Kiwi rates are way higher than current USD rates and it killed most carry traders.
My point was in regards to every last business TV channel, every Fed watcher, every Wall Street firm, every mutual fund firm, and every hedge fund talking about each little change in the probabilities of a September rate hike and it is ridiculous given that it may move markets for a few days but then larger players very quickly force short time divergences back to where prices should trade at. The Fed will raise rates or why do you think USDJPY trades at 125 levels? A full 24% higher than just a year ago. You might try to argue it has to do with Japan QE program but when you look at most rates that trade against the USD you will quickly notice it is mostly a USD driven market. Rate hikes have already been fully priced into the market a long time ago. If you do not trust me look at AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Aussie and Kiwi rates are way higher than current USD rates and it killed most carry traders.
No disagreement with any of that. If you read closer I said technical meaning. As in - why x/y/z support didn't hold or other micro-technical facets based on major currency news. Meaning: news throws a wrench in the gears as usual.
sure, if you believe technicals drive market valuations. Imho nothing could be further from the truth. But I do not want to open a can of worms.
Heavenskrow ...hella of a great thread. Look at the market today??? Even the best traders have trouble with days like this. One thing to remember is that when the market it following established support and resistance levels and looking very logical, this is when contrarian traders come in and take the other side of crowed trades. If most retail traders think Greece or China or whatever will cause a big market fall, you might see big buys come in just when things seem gloomiest and also just when TV commentary preaches extreme doom ahead for markets.