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Wtf...consensus for March Payrolls
- Thread starter Ivanovich
- Start date
Brian Wesbury shouted a possible 300,000 job gain for March. Who knows, I think there could easily be a positive number for March due to temporary hiring for the 2010 consensus, could easily see 50k-100k job creation, 300k who knows, if this does happen it will be temporary in my opinion as the hundreds of thousands of people hired to do the 2010 consensus get let go mid year.
March 9 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy could add 300,000 jobs this month as businesses rebound from blizzards last month that prevented hiring in parts of the country, said Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Portfolios in Wheaton, Illinois.
âWe could easily see that,â Wesbury said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. âI donât expect to see consistent gains of that size, but clearly March could be that number.â
In February, the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent and payrolls fell a less-than-forecast 36,000, the Labor Department reported March 5. Snowstorms prevented an estimated 1 million people from getting to work during the week that the Labor Department survey of households.
Payrolls, which have fallen by an average of about 309,000 a month since the recession started in December 2007, havenât increased by more than 300,000 in a single month since March 2006.
âWe will continue to see increases in economic activity,â Wesbury said. âThe economy is getting better because it has an underlying force of productivity, enterprise, technology.â
(In the U.S., hear Bloomberg Radio on satellite radio: Sirius Channel 130 and XM Channel 129. In New York City, tune to WBBR 1130 on the AM dial.)
To contact the reporters on this story: Vincent Del Giudice in Washington vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net; Thomas R. Keene in New York tkeene@bloomberg.net.
March 9 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy could add 300,000 jobs this month as businesses rebound from blizzards last month that prevented hiring in parts of the country, said Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Portfolios in Wheaton, Illinois.
âWe could easily see that,â Wesbury said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. âI donât expect to see consistent gains of that size, but clearly March could be that number.â
In February, the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent and payrolls fell a less-than-forecast 36,000, the Labor Department reported March 5. Snowstorms prevented an estimated 1 million people from getting to work during the week that the Labor Department survey of households.
Payrolls, which have fallen by an average of about 309,000 a month since the recession started in December 2007, havenât increased by more than 300,000 in a single month since March 2006.
âWe will continue to see increases in economic activity,â Wesbury said. âThe economy is getting better because it has an underlying force of productivity, enterprise, technology.â
(In the U.S., hear Bloomberg Radio on satellite radio: Sirius Channel 130 and XM Channel 129. In New York City, tune to WBBR 1130 on the AM dial.)
To contact the reporters on this story: Vincent Del Giudice in Washington vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net; Thomas R. Keene in New York tkeene@bloomberg.net.
Chandler and others say markets are already looking past much of the data of the next two weeks and are focusing heavily on the April 2 jobs report. "The consensus is 200,000. Some houses are looking for 300,000. The point is a bullish number is being priced in," Chandler said.
The March jobs report will be released on Good Friday, when the stock market is closed. Economists are factoring in as much as 125,000 of the projected gain in non farms payrolls from government census hirings. That contribution will turn into a negative factor in June.
Chandler said the stock market has built in the stronger job report at a time when it faces a few warning signs, including a recent pickup in interest rates and the low price of the VIX, the CBOE volatility index. A low VIX is seen by some as a contrarian indicator for the stock market. The VIX was at 16.87 , off 0.10, a level it was at in May, 2008.
The March jobs report will be released on Good Friday, when the stock market is closed. Economists are factoring in as much as 125,000 of the projected gain in non farms payrolls from government census hirings. That contribution will turn into a negative factor in June.
Chandler said the stock market has built in the stronger job report at a time when it faces a few warning signs, including a recent pickup in interest rates and the low price of the VIX, the CBOE volatility index. A low VIX is seen by some as a contrarian indicator for the stock market. The VIX was at 16.87 , off 0.10, a level it was at in May, 2008.