WTF ? Cant believe market is going up like this !!!

[Happy Hopping]

Quote from Visaria:

I sold my position in silver this morning at 2800. After I did that, i thought to myself, "WTF am i doing?" I recalled the passage from Reminiscences that i posted above. I re bought my position in silver at 2820.

edit: currently trading at 2850

see, that was my mistake Dec. 2009: I know I should never chase the price, but gold keep going up for 40+ days or so. So I jump on the bandwagon. I got in at 1221, on that same day, it drops, then it keep dropping to 1050 before it finally bounces. I stuck at that position for 6 mth. before I can sell it and take profit.

So w/ the market the way it is hyping up, there is no way I would chase the stock. In fact, I shouldn't have listen to that idiot sam stovall at S&P. Back in april, he said jump in when there is a 7% drop. So I go in after a certain stock dropped 15%. In the end, turn out it dropped 40%, to this date, I still can't break even. Still stuck at that long position.

So for me to buy anything right now, I would have to be not just Charlie Sheen crazy, but totally insane

 

[Happy Hopping]

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:And those dividends are likely to keep growing over the long-term. In 1, 2, 5, 10 years, earnings will most likely be higher, and you will have collected dividends or retained earnings along the way.

If you are bearish on stocks, what alternatives should investors consider? Bonds at <3% yields when Bernanke is printing money? Cash at 0%? [/B]

there is absolutely nothing to back the fairy tales that any dividends "are likely to keep growing". They can easily cut dividend especially it's a retail sector stock, due to lack of consumer demand.

The alternatives that is good when S&P has topped out is a short position or buy some put. When we move back to the 1050 range, you can bottom fish.

Just 2 days ago, Ireland, Greece, and Protugal's CDS is at record high, Greece's CDS is 908 basis pt., that means it needs $908,000 to secure $10M of greece debt. So just like Apr. 2010, we can tank due to round 2 of the European crisis.

 

[macroman]

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

It's a thread about trading the market, on a trading site, not a political forecasting site or a long-term investing site. So IMO the timeframe is going to be anything from a few weeks to months, maybe a couple of years at most.

I think it's silly to say we were better off in 1990, when 1/3 of the world was in slavery and another 1/3 was flat broke, when the world wide web was unknown and almost no one was on the internet, when music cost enough that a decent collection would set you back 10,000, when cars and planes were much more dangerous to travel in, when medical science was far inferior to today, when the cold war or collapse of the USSR still loomed and people were committing genocide in SE Europe, where lots of people still seriously thought that communism was a viable political system. Or on the smaller scale, when a laptop cost a fortune, mobile phones were the size of bricks, televisions were CRT lumps that cost an arm and a leg, data storage costs were prohibitive, and e-commerce was a subject for futurists and sci-fi writers. Now we have large swathes of the developing world achieving better standards of living, some parts of E Europe and Asia are close to 1st world living standards, and places like Brazil, Russia, India and China are seeing a rising out of poverty that plagued them for centuries. I guess for you, nostalgia ain't what it used to be!

you joking, right ? if not, this is something to think about: you earn 500 a month and are poor but have all necessities for free. You earn 1000 a month and not poor but everything expensive and on every corner you have to pay. You traded in carefree life, friends,etc for more money and beeing in a pit where only thing that natters is money. Kind of contunous poker game. If you still dont believe me maybe stop reading media. It may come to you after a while.

Well, current stimuluses in my opinion are trying to persuade people debt free life has no value )) If they dont make it, gone is us style capitalist sysytem.

 

[Visaria]

Quote from Happy Hopping:

see, that was my mistake Dec. 2009: I know I should never chase the price, but gold keep going up for 40+ days or so. So I jump on the bandwagon. I got in at 1221, on that same day, it drops, then it keep dropping to 1050 before it finally bounces. I stuck at that position for 6 mth. before I can sell it and take profit.

If you're going to chase the price as you put it, you need to place stop orders at points which will reasonably confirm a possible trend change (in the time period you're trading in). You can always move them up to b/e and beyond if the trade is working.

I was stopped out yesterday.

I went back in again, at lower prices. I've moved my stop to beyond b/e.

Trade with the trend. But manage your trade.

(that's a reminder to myself as well).

 

[Happy Hopping]

what's b/e?

anyhoo, it's gold, there is no stop order, it's only over the phone

 

[Happy Hopping]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gr...ereign-jitters-remain-2010-11-08?siteid=nwhpm

The cost of insuring Irish government bonds against default rose sharply, with the spread on five-year credit default swaps widening to 596 basis points, according to data provider CMA, from around 578 on Friday. That means it would now cost $596,000 a year to insure $10 million of Irish debt against default for five years.

The Greek CDS spread narrowed to around 861 basis points from 866, while the Portuguese spread widened to nearly 464 basis points from around 445, according to CMA.

if 1 out of these 3 foils, can the remaining of that 850B line of cr. by EU/IMF be enough? How much is left of that 850B after Greece spent the 1st round?

Does any1 knows how much did greece spend from round 1?

And would Angela bail out of the euro as per JP Morgan's prediction?

and how much would the US market fails?

 

[MKTrader]

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

And those dividends are likely to keep growing over the long-term. In 1, 2, 5, 10 years, earnings will most likely be higher, and you will have collected dividends or retained earnings along the way.

If you are bearish on stocks, what alternatives should investors consider? Bonds at <3% yields when Bernanke is printing money? Cash at 0%?

I won't even bother with the rest. The idea of dividends and earnings growing perpetually is a baseless assertion from fantasy land.

As for you last questions, precious metals and other commodities have outperformed stocks by a large margin over the last 10 years. If any trend is likely to continue, that's it.

 

[Happy Hopping]

Let me add to the above: if gold goes up, its performance has nothing to do w/ stocks. Gold is a safe haven for 3 main reasons:

1) inflation
2) drop in US dollars
3) terrorist act or war

Gold market and the stock market is mutually exclusive. This thread is aim at wondering why all the over-bought level at the S&P

=========================================

On my original question (scroll up): If Euro becomes unstable again, as is the case as of yesterday (it's dropping), since it's the world 2nd reserve currency, what would investors do? Would they go back to buy the US dollars?

Angela has said back in Apr. that if her European trade partners don't clean up their act, she would have to take strong measures. If she bails out, as she have to answer to her own people, France could also bail out, then Euro is over, what would that do to the US dollars? Would people buy the dollar or just go back to gold?

 

[piezoe]

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

It's a thread about trading the market, on a trading site, not a political forecasting site or a long-term investing site. So IMO the timeframe is going to be anything from a few weeks to months, maybe a couple of years at most.

I think it's silly to say we were better off in 1990, when 1/3 of the world was in slavery and another 1/3 was flat broke, when the world wide web was unknown and almost no one was on the internet, when music cost enough that a decent collection would set you back 10,000, when cars and planes were much more dangerous to travel in, when medical science was far inferior to today, when the cold war or collapse of the USSR still loomed and people were committing genocide in SE Europe, where lots of people still seriously thought that communism was a viable political system. Or on the smaller scale, when a laptop cost a fortune, mobile phones were the size of bricks, televisions were CRT lumps that cost an arm and a leg, data storage costs were prohibitive, and e-commerce was a subject for futurists and sci-fi writers. Now we have large swathes of the developing world achieving better standards of living, some parts of E Europe and Asia are close to 1st world living standards, and places like Brazil, Russia, India and China are seeing a rising out of poverty that plagued them for centuries. I guess for you, nostalgia ain't what it used to be!

You may have missed an important point made by Nitro.
Namely that "...things have improved markedly, but only if you can afford them."

What is fact is that while the the middle class is growing in much of the world, in the U.S. it is shrinking. The wealthy, especially, should be concerned and bothered by this.

 

[Happy Hopping]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/latest-qe-threatens-the-world-2010-11-09?link=kiosk

But this policy will do nothing to correct the real cause of this crisis, which is the utter lack of global competitiveness of the U.S. economy. Instead, as time goes by, what’s left of the U.S. manufacturing sector will be shipped abroad to countries where factory workers are glad to earn $5 per day. QE 3 will not cure, but rather prolong and exacerbate all the dangerous economic imbalances around the world.

Come mid-2011, when the Fed’s new money has all been spent, there will be no new driver of growth to replace it — only stock prices and levels of consumption that have been pushed to artificially and unsustainably high levels.

If the Fed then stops creating money and buying assets, the stock market will crash, consumption will contract, and the recession will resume with even greater intensity. So, the Fed won’t stop. It will have to create more money and repeat the process again and again, with the size of each round of QE larger than the one before.

There can be no doubt that the dollar will lose value every time the U.S. central bank creates money. However, the consequences will extend well beyond the worth of the dollar.

Consumer price inflation (excluding food and energy) will remain very low due to global excess industrial capacity and a limitless pool of $5-per-day labor. The price of stocks and bonds will be determined by both the supply (in terms of initial public offerings and debt issuance) and demand (which the Fed will orchestrate so that bond yields stay low and stock prices rise enough to provide at least some growth).