Okay, I think you may be missing the point. Even if you calc Fair Value yourself, you will still see programs hitting above and below your figure. This is because the big brokerage houses all have different cost of money. This figures into WHERE they choose to activate program trading during the day. Also important to check out the info as to what stocks are subject to programs. That changes each day as well.
Again I suggest you check out programtrading. Hank is a good guy and his services although expensive are worth it in my opinion, IF you want to learn to catch program trades.
Good luck
Steve