Writing options for a living

Quote from IV_Trader:

If you sold 1 put for ten individual stocks , how do you know who was those ten people that bought them or why they did it? Maybe five of them were MM , but another five bought them as insurance(read:I don't mind to pay premium , I want to sleep good at night) to hedge their portfolio? In this case , you become an insurance company/agent that always make money in the long term. So in this case , is my initial entry have a +exp?
More...
well one of the themes of this thread is that the markets are efficient. you can never know who is on the other side of your trade and certainly can't specify an order to "FILL ONLY IF THE OTHER SIDE OF THIS TRADE DOESN'T KNOW WHAT THEY'RE DOING." at best you have to assume that the market is correct and that over the long run you are trading the negative expectancy game.
 
Dummy-variable is one of Maverick's other screennames. It's funny how the guy created screennames to respond to himself and pat his own back.
 
Quote from Deringer:

Dummy-variable is one of Maverick's other screennames. It's funny how the guy created screennames to respond to himself and pats his own back.
More...

Too funny. I'll take that as a compliment. I have never written as well as Mike. This guy has me beat hands down. What, you think I created another alias that suddenly has incredible writing skills? LOL. :D

Keep up the good detective work Deringer. :cool:
 
I've been following this thread since the beginning. I've noticed that Dummy Variable is only around in this thread. He's not in any other threads, and it's so coincidental that he only shows up here to support you when you are in some heat. The timing is always so perfect. When you make a claim that you are too busy for this thread, Dummy Variable always suddenly shows up to answer for you and he's also here to give you (yourself) constant praise. lol

There were instances in this thread that you responded in like 3am in the morning, and not even 2 minutes later, Dummy-variable suddenly appeared to repeat exactly the same thing, all done in a very similar voice and style except he doesn't capitalize anything. Just pure coincidence though, right.

And in the last couple pages, you said you wanted no more of this thread, but then suddenly, out of nowhere, Dummy Variable appears again to only resupport what you wanted to say. How convenient. That's just a very noticeable and observable pattern.

Just a funny observation.


:cool:
 
Quote from Deringer:

I've been following this thread since the beginning. I've noticed that Dummy Variable is only around in this thread. He's not in any other threads, and it's so coincidental that he only shows up here to support you when you are in some heat. The timing is always so perfect. When you make a claim that you are too busy for this thread, Dummy Variable always suddenly shows up to answer for you and he's also here to give you (yourself) constant praise. lol

There were instances in this thread that you responded in like 3am in the morning, and not even 2 minutes later, Dummy-variable suddenly appeared to repeat exactly the same thing, all done in a very similar voice and style except he doesn't capitalize anything. Just pure coincidence though, right.

And in the last couple pages, you said you wanted no more of this thread, but then suddenly, out of nowhere, Dummy Variable appears again to only resupport what you wanted to say. How convenient. That's just a very noticeable and observable pattern.

Just a funny observation.


:cool:
More...

Deringer,

I guess this goes to show you that you can't be a conspiracy guy on ET. I assure you Mike is very real. Go over to the Optionetics board, he has a few thousand posts he has written over the years under the same screen name. Very good writer.

I also have my own options message board and he writes a lot on there as well. I assure, it's not me talking to myself.

I also run an educational group if you live in the Chicago area. Mike actually attends these meetings in the flesh. We are definitely separate people who happen to both be night owls. LOL. You can meet both of us at these meetings if you like.

I just think it's funny that Mike and I see things so much alike that we appear to be the same person. It's actually hysterical how these conspiracy theories come about on ET.
 
Quote from Deringer:

I've been following this thread since the beginning. I've noticed that Dummy Variable is only around in this thread. He's not in any other threads, and it's so coincidental that he only shows up here to support you when you are in some heat. The timing is always so perfect. When you make a claim that you are too busy for this thread, Dummy Variable always suddenly shows up to answer for you and he's also here to give you (yourself) constant praise. lol

There were instances in this thread that you responded in like 3am in the morning, and not even 2 minutes later, Dummy-variable suddenly appeared to repeat exactly the same thing, all done in a very similar voice and style except he doesn't capitalize anything. Just pure coincidence though, right.

And in the last couple pages, you said you wanted no more of this thread, but then suddenly, out of nowhere, Dummy Variable appears again to only resupport what you wanted to say. How convenient. That's just a very noticeable and observable pattern.

Just a funny observation.


:cool:
More...

i also have an observation...

from Maverick's post:

Great post Mike. I wasn't going to add anything further to this thread, but you pretty much summed it up what I failed to communicate. You are a better writer then I. Maybe from now on, I'll have you write my posts. LOL.

And another one of Maverick's post:

I'm not going to continue in this merry go around. Apparently riskarb was smarter then me and jumped ship early. I waited too long with all the other stragglers.
More...

From dummy-variable's post:

but the skilled trader - through deep experience - learns to select those ripples in an option's history that either result in reduced losses or better than average gains.
.......
if this observation leads you to quickly withdraw most of your at-risk bet, then you have skewed the odds in your favor.
More...

as you can see, Maverick has used the word "then" when he meant "than". i've seen his other posts in the past that shows the same thing. dummy-variable used the word "than" and "then" correctly.

in my opinion, i don't think Maverick is the same person as dummy-variable.

peace :cool:
 
The attached abstract may have some ideas.

---------------------------------------------------------
http://www.fengshui-123.com


model1.gif
 

Attachments

Quote from dummy-variable:

okay, if we're all on the same page, every option trade is therefore a negative expectancy event. so how does anyone facing these odds make any money? because as John (Mav) implies, options are not discrete events. they are not coin flips or other binary either/or situations.

a skilled trader has the ability to "alter the odds" so to speak by bringing individual options into combinations that, while on their own offer only negative expectancy, in combination they provide positive expectancy. it is in essence the TRADER'S skill that creates positive expectancy.

...........

but the skilled trader - through deep experience - learns to select those ripples in an option's history that either result in reduced losses or better than average gains. there are so many permutations and ways for these momentary +expectancy events to occur that there is presently (to my knowledge) no computer that could model and execute on it besides the human brain.

the bottom line though is that options, while at any moment are offered as zero or negative expectancy events, when you are in a position, the continuous changes to value mark opportunities to overcome the original negative expectancy. it's as if you have heads on a coin flip but somewhere just before it lands you can see that it is very likely to land tails. if this observation leads you to quickly withdraw most of your at-risk bet, then you have skewed the odds in your favor.
More...

dummy-variable,

If the skill trader can alter the odds" so to speak..., and to select those ripples..., then why he can't do it when he first entering the first leg to get the +expectancy?

By the way, bid/ask and commission added up with all other factors not necessary resulted in negative expectancy, they are just parts of the factors that have negative effect.

If options are not discrete events. they are not coin flips or other binary either/or situations, then it is meaningless to say that it has negative expectancy at the snapshot(ie. you entering the trade).

-------------------------------------------------------
http://www.fengshui-123.com
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top