Writing options for a living

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Can anyone else comment to the validity of MU's statement?

ITM probability = Delta = moneyness under a flat vol-surface assumption.
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Can anyone else comment to the validity of MU's statement?

There is a different formula to calculate moneyness from delta. The main difference lies in the interest rates, and for stock options, the dividends. But the difference is usually relatively small. Unless of course interest rates are through the roof, and the stock pays an extraordinary large divi.

For all intents and purposes, the delta is a good proxy for moneyness.
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Can anyone else comment to the validity of MU's statement?

I don't know what you are after but MU is of course correct.
Risk neutral probability of an option ending ITM is something quite different from a delta of the option. For instance for a European call the (risk neutral) probability is integral from d2 to +infinity, i.e. N(d2) due to a symetry of the normal distribution. The delta is however N(d1) - which is clearly something different.
And even the above is valid only under specific B-S assumptions...
 
Quote from Ateht:

Your post confirms my thoughts on you. Your a moron and a monkey because I'm not Porkie or Porgie and he is not me.
I'll whip your monkey ass if you keep getting things wrong about me. So my advice to you is you best get to your best behaviour if you dont want your ass whip'd in public.
What ... is ... your ... obsession ... with ... monkeys? You .. don't .. like .. them .. or something - what r.. u ..doing here..? Why do .. you .. want to whip ...monkey ass? Shouldn't --- you --- be --- in an S&M club for that? - this is the options forum...! Hey, I think I'm beginning to ... enjoy...writing.. like this. -- it's liberating. Something useful has .. come .. from cyof's posts after all (deep down he's a sweetie and probably just wants a big hug and cuddle).
d.. b ...
 
Ahhhhh, it's Bulldozer or CYOF up to their old tricks.

They've been banned from TW2 more times than I've had hot dinners.

If you have a week or so spare, then this is the relevant thread . . .

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=23221

Executive summary : Socrates/Bulldozer/CYOF started a "we're posting real trades" thread where all trades were written puts.

Everyone else comes in with "yes but what about the margin?" comments which were never replied to.

Trades go well for three or four weeks and guess what?

Market tanks out big time.

Margin shoots to a (ballpark) £500,000 - £750,000.

The end-game was that Socrates stated he'd closed all short positions out the day before the crash.

However, a quick look on the bloomberg screens and next days options listings from the exchange prooved otherwise.

Bottom line, I believe the trades were opened, it is a fact they were not closed the day before the crash, I've no idea if Socrates was able to put up the margin.

A little Spider tells me that Bull/CYOF/Socrates also run www.citybulls.com where you'll be charged £400 to be told the difference between american & european style options.
 
Quote from Ateht:

Daddysmonkey,

You might be the first monkey to get your ass whip'd in public. so be veeeeery veary careful!! your on your last warning!!. Look whats happened to all the monkeys at the derivates options section at T2W!! They have been put in their rightful place [monkey cages]!! Now they cant come out to post for fear of getting their ass whippe'd in public and in FULL view by ET members!!
Only 5 posts per month they are allowed from 70,000 members in the Options sections. Click here> http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forumdisplay.php?f=87

Dont forget your on your last warning!! So try to be smart and not be a silly daddysmonkey thats my FREE advice!! take it or leave it? the choice is yours to make!? hopefully you'll make the correct choice. :)
Thanks for that warning - you are obviously genuinely interested in helping us all. Please accept my apologies - I don't know what came over me, sometimes we say things we didn't mean in a public forum. Please give me some more advice and I promise I'll be a good little boy so you won't have to warn me again :(. If I do misbehave again (and I'll really try not to) you have my mommy's permission to give me a good ol' spankin'.
Yours truly
db (aka 'silly db')
 
Quote from A Dashing Blade:

Ahhhhh, it's Bulldozer or CYOF up to their old tricks.

They've been banned from TW2 more times than I've had hot dinners.

If you have a week or so spare, then this is the relevant thread . . .

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=23221

Executive summary : Socrates/Bulldozer/CYOF started a "we're posting real trades" thread where all trades were written puts.

Everyone else comes in with "yes but what about the margin?" comments which were never replied to.

Trades go well for three or four weeks and guess what?

Market tanks out big time.

Margin shoots to a (ballpark) £500,000 - £750,000.

The end-game was that Socrates stated he'd closed all short positions out the day before the crash.

However, a quick look on the bloomberg screens and next days options listings from the exchange prooved otherwise.

Bottom line, I believe the trades were opened, it is a fact they were not closed the day before the crash, I've no idea if Socrates was able to put up the margin.

Bull/CYOF/Socrates also run www.citybulls.com where you'll be charged £400 to be told the difference between american & european style options.
That's interesting. So their motives for coming to ET is to drum up new business to recover some of their trading losses?
db
 
Quote from daddy'sboy:

That's interesting. So their motives for coming to ET is to drum up new business to recover some of their trading losses?
db

I gave up a long time ago trying to work out these characters motivations!

(Suspect this thread is about to kick off bigtime!)
 
Quote from Ateht:

Hello Spider Dashing blade.

Please remember your on a short term leave from T2W. You will be put in the ZOO for another month with the rest of your monkey friends if you continue to act like a monkey on here. :D

Just telling it as I see it Struthio!
 
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