WOW - PA now tied!!!

The one problem with the polls, as I understand them, is that they rely upon "likely" voters, and to determine who is a likely voter they use past voting trends and whatnot. That means that they are probably massively discounting the African American and youth votes that Obama has energized and probably will vote en mass for the first time in history.
 
Quote from Brandonf:

The one problem with the polls, as I understand them, is that they rely upon "likely" voters, and to determine who is a likely voter they use past voting trends and whatnot. That means that they are probably massively discounting the African American and youth votes that Obama has energized and probably will vote en mass for the first time in history.
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Exactly.
 
Quote from brocklanders:

Intrade has Pennsylvania at 68 for dems. I don't think McCain has much of a chance there.
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he has an excellent chance. Countering whatever the current numbers, is the phemonena that voters often tell pollsters they are more likely to vote for blacks than they actually do in the election.

It is called the Bradley effect:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

Even if 1% difference in the election, it may be a major surprise in some states. West Virginia was a shining example when Hilary strongly outpolled Obama...
 
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