Would you take 180-1 that FOMC will cut rates by 0.50?

D

Daal

Or 50-1 that they will raise by 0.5?
Because those are the odds at befair. Its pretty unlikely but I think these odds are ridiculous
 
I'll give 100000-1 if FOMC cuts rates by 0.50. It's a complete imposiblity.

I'll give 1000-1 for a raise by 0.5
 
Then you can easly became rich by betting on the favorite result. Why dont you do it. Till one day a surprise comes and ....
 
Quote from btud:

I'll give 100000-1 if FOMC cuts rates by 0.50. It's a complete imposiblity.

I'll give 1000-1 for a raise by 0.5
More...
Both of these odds would go to 1 in the case of an external shock event.

nitro
 
Quote from Daal:

Then you can easly became rich by betting on the favorite result. Why dont you do it. Till one day a surprise comes and ....
More...

I guess in such cases with very small edge, the spreads and/or commissions will eat all your profits.
 
Its also 49-1 they will cut -0.25
1.1-1 for +0.25
0.75-1 for no change
You tell me there is no significant edge here?Come on, its a bunch of gamblers betting on the favorite outcome because its satisfying psychologically to do so(and then justify it with all sorts of news). I mean I bet if I look over history its probably something like 30-1 that the action they took on was not expected. But I would like to hear opinions from other people
 
Did you get those odds-numbers from tradesports.com or hedgestreet.com? If you believe there's "free money" to be made by spreading those "odds" versus the Fed Funds futures & options, you should put on as large of a position as possible. Let us know how that goes.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top