Would you switch?

[traderich]

Remember the old 'Let's make a deal show'?

Here is the scenario:

- You have 3 doors to choose from. You pick one door.
- One is a winner, the other 2 are losers.

You choose a door and one of the other 2 doors is revealed to show its a loser.

Question: Now that you have seen one of the other 2 doors has been revealed to show it was a loser, would you now switch your original choose of a door to the other remaining unopened door and WHY?

 

[Scataphagos]

Quote from traderich:

Remember the old 'Let's make a deal show'?

Here is the scenario:

- You have 3 doors to choose from. You pick one door.
- One is a winner, the other 2 are losers.

You choose a door and one of the other 2 doors is revealed to show its a loser.

Question: Now that you have seen one of the other 2 doors has been revealed to show it was a loser, would you now switch your original choose of a door to the other remaining unopened door and WHY?

No rational basis for either holding what you have or switching. Odds of ending up with the winner are 50:50, regardless.

 

[ivanbaj]

Did the person who open the door had prior knowledge of where the winer was?

 

[Scataphagos]

Quote from ivanbaj:

Did the person who open the door had prior knowledge of where the winer was?

Would have to have known... would spoil the deal if the person accidentally revealed the winner.

 

[candletrader]

Quote from Scataphagos:

No rational basis for either holding what you have or switching. Odds of ending up with the winner are 50:50, regardless.

It's not 50:50.

Think in terms of conditional probability and you will switch every time!!

 

[euclid]

One door vs the best of two doors. Not a hard choice.

 

[ivanbaj]

Quote from Scataphagos:

Would have to have known... would spoil the deal if the person accidentally revealed the winner.

Then switch

1choice was 1 out of 3
Your 2choice is only 1out of 2

 

[Scataphagos]

Quote from ivanbaj:

Then switch

1choice was 1 out of 3
Your 2choice is only 1out of 2

No rational basis to switch. The odds are 50:50 whether you hold or switch.

 

[Scataphagos]

Quote from candletrader:

It's not 50:50.

Think in terms of conditional probability and you will switch every time!!

Explain this apparent BS, please.

 

[ivanbaj]

Quote from Scataphagos:

No rational basis to switch. The odds are 50:50 whether you hold or switch.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem