Would you stick to your trade even when a loss seems imminent?

[bone]

Whenever I take a trade entry, I teach clients to set the profit target and the stop-loss level using a trading range/volatility rules based system at that point in time.

About 50% of the losses are taken when the indicator package flips back over - so in other words, the premise for the trade is no longer valid and we're out even though the original stop-loss level is still intact.

 

[systematictrader]

I am not trading signals I am trading my equity, different signals and thereby different bet size adjustments is a thing (to me). Personally I am opposed to the idea of having a fixed bet size, it makes no sense to me since markets are not rational.

interesting topic, but how do you decide your varying bet size? doesn't that take you out of the category of systematic trading to discretionary ??

 

[systematictrader]

That's funny. If something looks good you have worse trades then when something looks bad? So you have to trade things that are not obvious and that don't feel good?

I have exactly the opposite experience.

The clearer the signal the higher the probability it will be a winner. The only thing I cannot, is estimate the size of the move when I get in. I have to follow continuously the move to get out at a good place. But in general I manage to do that.

It took me years to get from the basic system to the fine tuned one. Even had to throw out algorithms or logic that I used, to replace it with better things. Each adaptation (after using it a long time) was a heavy task as my brain (for the discretionary part) was more or less programmed to stuff that I suddenly had to delete. I each time had do re-educate my brain to do something else.

this is exactly on point, picing direction is relatively easiER, but magnitude of the move difficult, have you tied trading whatever you trade with options? to eliminate the whole pressure of having to find the exit and or finding the "good place"

do you find on average finding the "good place" anyways ends you up same spot as if you took the exit on the system itself, since naturally times you will get out at a good place others the move will keep going

 

[systematictrader]

But markets have patterns, they react in ways that can be mathematically deciphered more or less and with enough probability to make money with a system that has a positive expectancy.

There is some kind of "rationality" in it.
When I watched a chart the first time in my life, it looked like all I saw was noise. There was no logic in it.
First time using MA's I started to see that part of the chart was less noisy. I saw at least some times a trend. Over the years, and after finding more and more "indicators", the noisy part of the chart was shrinking. Now I control my trades well, and the parts that are still noisy are most of the time somwhere in the trade that I can just let it run till it gets clear again. All this without being stopped out all the time.

its safe to assume ur a swing trader and ur either long or short all the time,. implied by the fact when its noisey you just ride it out versus going flat

 

[systematictrader]

%%
Almost NEVER close your stop early; that goes against a well tested battle plan Amatrue
OF course if it the least profitable ETF in your account /kick it out even with a profit.
ONE exception to that; if you are in FAZ or FAS+ then the FED makes a major move/GET out asap.LOL/true
''Feels like an additional loss could be prevented.'' Feelings are so often wrong/what about feelings when you dont have a plan + then after you chicken out/the trade turns+ turns profitable?????

lolo.o why are you picking on FAS and FAZ,, cant the move still go your way on fed announcement, they also got liquid options, cant restructure position to limit loss and or capture a big move if correct? weekly OTM verticals for example?

 

[systematictrader]

Whenever I take a trade entry, I teach clients to set the profit target and the stop-loss level using a trading range/volatility rules based system at that point in time.

About 50% of the losses are taken when the indicator package flips back over - so in other words, the premise for the trade is no longer valid and we're out even though the original stop-loss level is still intact.

at that point in time., meaning at the beginning of the trade i assume, when indicator flip and stop is no longer relevant since whole signal/trade is no longer is, then what? wait on a another buy signal in opposed direction? or switch opposite side? curious to know and whether you filter out some signals, think TSLA short for example,

 

[bone]

My Indicator Package is one of four conditions in my system that have to be satisfied in order to take a buy or sell entry. At the time of trade entry, both the profit target and the stop-loss level are set. Those levels are determined modeling historical trading ranges.

During the life of the trade (we are swing trading and holding positions overnight) if the Indicator Package flips - we are out of the trade and we cancel our working stop-loss and profit target GTC limit orders.

We wouldn't reverse with a new position unless all four of our system conditions were met - and the Indicator Package is but one of the four conditions.

About half of our losses are taken on the failed Indicator Package.

at that point in time., meaning at the beginning of the trade i assume, when indicator flip and stop is no longer relevant since whole signal/trade is no longer is, then what? wait on a another buy signal in opposed direction? or switch opposite side? curious to know and whether you filter out some signals, think TSLA short for example,

 

[systematictrader]

Those levels are determined modeling historical trading ranges.
And i assume this is different from one market to another, forex, commodities, stocks, or you all exclusive in one of the three above

About half of our losses are taken on the failed Indicator Package.

Couldnt the trade also have profited but not yet to the profit point and the failed indicator package was the cause of the exit, other words

couldn't it be "About half (or diff amount) of our profits are taken on the failed Indicator Package.

 

[Heydrrich]

interesting topic, but how do you decide your varying bet size? doesn't that take you out of the category of systematic trading to discretionary ??

To me personally, trades have implied value as well, meaning: if this low or this high breaks (or fails) the trend in a higher scale is confirmed (if the structure on the lower scale is compatible), so the normal size makes no sense because you want to acquire a big positions as soon as possible to bank on the bigger gyration that is unfolding. Yes, discretionary.

 

[maxinger]

What happened when the loss is imminent?

Most of us are guilty of closing the position right away.
After closing the position, the price might move in our favor!!

We are guilty of having this subconscious fear, resulting in such a problem.