Would you Short This Bear Flag?

F

Flashboy

Just curious as to what you guys think of this formation.

5 min. chart of Emini.. bear flag forming..

30 min. chart very oversold.. the price is currently at 980.00 and there is fairly strong support at 975.00..

Would you place a sell stop below this channel at the 977.50 area???
 

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Its actually a bear flag on higher time frame as well. Also failed at the 78.6 retrace of last swing move (i.e 1004 area). Aside from the fact that this market is razor thin and the fact that the bond market has been crashing for more than a month, its disturbing the natural ebb and flow of price action and making trade location pretty difficult...That being said, IF and its a big IF, I were short from higher prices, I sure as hell wouldnt cover here and would be willing to stay positioned for what really might be the first serious leg of the downswing...But, again, thats hindsight analysis and I dont want to imply anything from it...
 
i will sell when the market is weak,when it touch 20 ma on your chart,i believe you use 20 ma,you should sell it yesterday at 999.75,the first time it touch the 20 ma,today you should sell at 981.50,but more risk.
 
You risk would be at least twice your reward unless support breaks. What reason do you have to believe that that is a high-probability occurrence?
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

You risk would be at least twice your reward unless support breaks. What reason do you have to believe that that is a high-probability occurrence?
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Dbp,

I don't think its a high probability occurence.. and am not planning on trading it... was just curious what others think..

I like to get other oppinions on things.. others see things I don't see..

I would trade that type of trade on the following conditions:

The 30 min. trend was just turning down or not so oversold..

the support was more than 4 - 5 points away..


can I ask you,,

what mrkts do you trade.. you speak of only trading high prob. trades.. how many trades do you make a day. .that is if you're daytrading
 
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