Would you pick up NMX for 115 for long-term trade?

B

BlueStreek

NMX has been falling with the price of oil, I am thinking of picking some up at 115.00 for a longer-term play. But in valuation terms, I am not sure it should be trading above the nyse (NYX) stock.

Another concern I have is that this may fall to between 95-111 range, and I could get it cheaper, just based on the ta, and the fact that this issue hasn`t been trading very long, and was helped a lot by the exchange stocks hype of the past cme/bot/ice.

Also, oil is at a key inflection point, (55) if it breaks 55 it could fall quickly to the 48-51 range. Thus I think NMX falls as well.

Pro`s:
The stronger winter months are ahead, the summer driving season right after that, and it has bounced off the 55 level several times, plus this would be buying NMX at its lowest trading range.

Any thoughts on this stock right here?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=nmx
 
i bought nmx at 136 right after ipo and 116 for a long term investment. Chicago Mercantile Exchange stock started at similiar levels and rose up to $500 something dollars. I think its good for nice return in next few years.
 
Im not going to tell you where to place your cash.

However, all the analysts have given this a thumbs down. The analysts felt the stock got ahead of itself.

I would not take a position in an ipo until after the first conference call and until a few analysts have reviewed it.

4-Jan-07 M. Lynch Initiated Sell
3-Jan-07 JP Morgan Initiated Underweight
27-Dec-06 Banc of America Sec Initiated Neutral
27-Dec-06 Citigroup Initiated Hold
27-Nov-06 Prudential Initiated Underweight
 
well hangingman how low do you think this can go as it is hard to value this entire category given the recent trading histories of the bot for example, i had ice for about week in the 44 range, gave up on it too early, missed all that run.


Should it be valued at around ice before or after its runnup? Do you think it drops below 95?
 
Easiest and cheapest way to speculate on this is to buy deep out of the money calls with a year of time value. You only risk a small amount and when it becomes in the money, you can have a bucket full of money. The Jan 08 150 calls are 6.50 right now. You get yourself 10 contracts, you're risking 6500 to make over 35000.
 
valuation 101:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=NMX

forward PE 2007: 51.32 (116/2.26)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...4FA3-B3BE-7D6654C1E892}&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=ICE

forward PE 2007: 40.41
sales growth rate: 34.1 % PEG 2.47

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061227/nymex_holdings_ahead_of_the_bell.html?.v=1

couldn't find projected growth rates on nymex, but i assume its similar to ice.

all these exchanges seem overpriced to me... i want to see forward pe's half as much..

NYX: 2007 fpe 44.51 (growth ?) PEG 2.6
CME: 2007 fpe 33.33 (growth 24%). PEG 2.16

humm.. ICE is cheapest / most growth per $$... but they are all SOOOO overpriced.
 
thanks for that reality check scriab---i think also these exchanges are possible mergers---so they are not ever going to trade based on the pure fpe`s and growth rates......but yeah it is probably still overpriced at 115.

Might buy it at 115 and flip it at 118 for a quick trade though--i`ll watch it closely tomorrow--and see how it reacts--could be some panic selling tomorrow taking it to the 113 level.
 
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