Would we be having 50%-60% correction soon?

HeSaidSheSaid

HeSaidSheSaid

the answer is no!
bond market is considered where the smart money is (probably, it's larger than the equity markets, it has been the play ground of the FED, so a lot more people pay attention to the behaviors in the bond market for the sign of trouble. Currently, the actions on the bond markets are not showing the signs that we'd be having a recession soon. actually, people have been selling bonds. In bonds, we trust! :)
As of last Friday, stock markets were way too bullish (the number showed too many longs on the same side). I think we're having a technical correction.
 
Nope that can never happen...50% correction? No way no how. Not even a 5% correction is possible ever ever again. We may get a 1.7% sell off but that's about it.....markets only go up remember that.
 
but dont we usually only see a spike in demand for bonds when the market is or has dropped heavily? just like what happened during the pandemic, bond demand only just picked up when the markets were crashing.
 
Amatrue - your general observation is right, though of late, I don't see the diversion between gold, bonds, utilities and stock markets, so the risk is on. besides, we have an insider connection, from the trusted news source TMZ, our dear S2007S has been the advisor to Fed chairman Powell. I don't think he would give advices to the FED chairman that would crash President Biden's economic agenda, then Mr. Biden would have to resort to Mr. Trump's play book. ("Mr. Powell! let me remind you who made you the FED chairman?" :)
 
In day trading, we don't bother about all these.
We don't bother about what is going to happen tomorrow, the day after ...

We also don't bother about the bond market because it has been relatively
stable and it hardly moves.

We like the FED because they are going to move the market.
up or down, we don't bother.

Our charts, we trust!
 
Yes based on the fact someone cashed out yesterday, more will follow leaving retail holding the bad whilst it drops.

Day trader so don't care, just for fun, as long as it's moving in a semi orderly fashion I'm good.
 
If bonds sells-off, yields will rise, making equities look more expensive given their expected returns vs. risk (risk premium), which can trigger equities sell-off by risk parity & others, unless of course the Fed shows up and buys bonds to push the yield back down again & voila, you get your equities dip & recovery.
 
SunTrader said:
Bond market is off kilter due to Fed unrelenting QE.
More...
Pretty much everything is off-kilter due to Fed unrelenting QE.

How can anything be expected to move rationally with this massive irrational inflow of revenue?

It's like someone on life support; under rational circumstances, they should be dead. The vent, feeding tube, medical team, etc. is keeping them alive.
 
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