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Worse than the Great Depression
- Thread starter ProfitTakgFool
- Start date
Quote from domestic:
ok , now you went overboard. everyone is overreacting. you guys are surrounded by too much info that is repeating the doom over and over feeding your fear. i am no bull; although i do have a bias for the economy to survive. sounds so trendy to cry like babies the sky is falling.
what about the s&l crisis? i saw southern ct home values drop 40% in the first 3 years of the start of my career (89-92)..then they stayed flat for 8 years after that. we all survived, then boomed.
this time around the us will print money,borrow, invest and bail out companies. then things will turn around and we will recoup and forget.
pabst, don't you remember the condo auctions from the late 80's and 90's? so here we go again. bill clinton and barney frank wanted to put everyone in a home that created this bubble; different reason that created the disaster; but it is the same bubble as the last. no worse. why does everyone think whatever is happening in realtime any different than previous busts? i believe the public will put their money in real estate disproportionately soon because they don't trust the market, driving the recovery and the market will follow on momentum. let there be a shakeout of the weak and some pain; then off we go again..been there before. don't all be such pussies. this started in 07 and will finish to recovery in 2010; same 3 years as the last one.
Very good post.
I agree with virtually everything you wrote. Yes there are historical precedents to this. I'm concerned though about both the greater leverage of present plus the higher jumping off point in real prices. Homes in Stamford back then were breaking from 450k to 300k. Today they're coming of a 1.450 high. God forbid if we actually fill in those prices going back to the late 90's "breakout" levels. Like you I keep historical fractals in my head and I'm probably being too alarmist but I'll tell you: This Nikkei break is an eye opener. Never in a hundred years did I think they'd come all the way down and make a new multi-decade low again. It has me spooked that this indeed could be the "big one."
Quote from domestic:
ok , now you went overboard. everyone is overreacting. you guys are surrounded by too much info that is repeating the doom over and over feeding your fear. i am no bull; although i do have a bias for the economy to survive. sounds so trendy to cry like babies the sky is falling.
what about the s&l crisis? i saw southern ct home values drop 40% in the first 3 years of the start of my career (89-92)..then they stayed flat for 8 years after that. we all survived, then boomed.
this time around the us will print money,borrow, invest and bail out companies. then things will turn around and we will recoup and forget.
pabst, don't you remember the condo auctions from the late 80's and 90's? so here we go again. bill clinton and barney frank wanted to put everyone in a home that created this bubble; different reason that created the disaster; but it is the same bubble as the last. no worse. why does everyone think whatever is happening in realtime any different than previous busts? i believe the public will put their money in real estate disproportionately soon because they don't trust the market, driving the recovery and the market will follow on momentum. let there be a shakeout of the weak and some pain; then off we go again..been there before. don't all be such pussies. this started in 07 and will finish to recovery in 2010; same 3 years as the last one.
Quote from arealpissedgoy:
why?
Your brain hurts too much when you don't have Rush giving you the "facts"?
Deficit spending and pretty much EVERY other republican policy has proven to be a disastrous failure,
Anyone sane does not need an imbecile like rush limbaugh to come to the above conclusion.
But then again, I've stopped under-estimating the sheer stupidity the average illiterate right wing imbecile is capable of.
you are a poster child for idiots everywhere...
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
I agree with virtually everything you wrote. Yes there are historical precedents to this. I'm concerned though about both the greater leverage of present plus the higher jumping off point in real prices. Homes in Stamford back then were breaking from 450k to 300k. Today they're coming of a 1.450 high. God forbid if we actually fill in those prices going back to the late 90's "breakout" levels. Like you I keep historical fractals in my head and I'm probably being too alarmist but I'll tell you: This Nikkei break is an eye opener. Never in a hundred years did I think they'd come all the way down and make a new multi-decade low again. It has me spooked that this indeed could be the "big one."
as i subscribe to a paper called "the commercial record"; i am surprised to see home prices holding and homeowners still getting big mortgages. regarding stamford, prices are down from 703k to 620k year over year and sold homes in 07 @ 562 ytd compared to 338 ytd for 2008. it is possible for another shoe to drop like a big leg down in the job market breaking the resiliency of home prices and screwing the market for a longer time than i would want. maybe it will suck for 4 years instead of 3!
you know my view's are very similar to yours on most stuff; regardless of the bashers.
Quote from domestic:
bill clinton and barney frank wanted to put everyone in a home that created this bub
Ok, I can understand tossing Clinton's name in there, but how does Barney Frank manage to be the *one* Congressman you mention when Republicans controlled both the Senate the House from 1995 to 2007, with the last six years of that tenure coinciding with a Republican president?
Are you telling me one gay NE liberal had the power to run roughshod over President "Mission Accomplished", VP Haliburton, Karl "Killer" Rove, and a Congress of near-evangelical self-professed "conservatives"?
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
This Nikkei break is an eye opener.
I'll put it real frank: what is happening in Japan scares the shit out of me. My historical analogue so far has been '66-'82, with us currently around '74, but I'm having to rethink the premise. This could, honestly, be The One.
As alarmist as it may sound, by historical measures we are overdue for a right proper global financial panic...
That Nikkei low was ominous. Didn't Martin Armstrong predicted that if it couldn't get pass 21k it would make a new low? He is also predicting an apocaliptic high on 4/09, as in the last high we will see before a deeper low into 2011. Do members here believe he is just a fraud?Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
I agree with virtually everything you wrote. Yes there are historical precedents to this. I'm concerned though about both the greater leverage of present plus the higher jumping off point in real prices. Homes in Stamford back then were breaking from 450k to 300k. Today they're coming of a 1.450 high. God forbid if we actually fill in those prices going back to the late 90's "breakout" levels. Like you I keep historical fractals in my head and I'm probably being too alarmist but I'll tell you: This Nikkei break is an eye opener. Never in a hundred years did I think they'd come all the way down and make a new multi-decade low again. It has me spooked that this indeed could be the "big one."
Quote from arealpissedgoy:
what is even more retarded are the fucking right wing illiterate retards screaming about socialism on a 3.7% marginal tax increase on the wealthiest 5%.
You dam well know NONE, not ONE of these retards make more than 30K a year.
The US is finally paying the piper for "Reaganomics" and allowing the retarded "bottom of the gene pool" types to hijack national policy.
The middle class is now choking on republican trickle down and their massive corporate welfare ( fraud) programs .
Take your fucking political rant to the appropriate thread and shut the fuck up in here, bitch boys. The election is over.
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
This Nikkei break is an eye opener. [/B]
As someone not acquainted with the Nikkei index enough to understand what you are focused on... what is extraordinary about this break?
Is it that the Nikkei index has dropped like our Dow Jones index?
Or that if Japan sneezes, the rest of Asia gets a cold?
Something like that?
Thanks for any comment from anyone.