World’s top chip equipment suppliers halt business with China

[d08]

I had just read they are working on a train for 2025 that will go 373 mph. We have Amtrak Acela that goes 150 mph for 50 miles. Working on getting that up to 165 mph. Anything involving the manipulation of atoms and not bits, we have already totally lost.

Not a great example. Most European countries, Japan, Korea are decades ahead of US trains as well.

It makes no sense to believe China can't make chips when so much chip manufacturing is in Taiwan.
Our AI breakthroughs are all pretty much open source so they don't need to hack anything, just install Git.

Many AI breakthroughs happen in China nowadays. Just looking at the most popular tools and you see many are created or developed by Chinese.
Chip manufacturing is different though. China has been trying hard, they've spend fortunes on it, hired people from TSMC etc. I think most people underestimate the complexity and difficulty required.

 

[earth_imperator]

The operative word here is thus far, perhaps in our life time we don’t see them catching up. But what about next generation? They got space station and supersonic tech already. If they catch up with chip tech, game over.

I expect it happen much sooner than later, I predict it'll happen even within the next 5 years, but not later than 2030, IMO.
They are already at 7nm, the Westerners are at 3 or 2nm.

I think, China will find a way to beat them all and reduce it even further into the 900'ish pm (pico meter) area...
Then China will become the leader in microchips. TSMC and ASML will be the biggest loosers then, incl Taiwan as a whole...

If above prediction holds, then it makes sense to short TSM Stock, or buy LEAPS Puts of TSM, or shortsell LEAPS Calls of these Western chip companies, incl. ASML etc.

 

[mervyn]

What do you think? TSMC and ASML are sitting on their hands? They're already working on next gen. Russia has been trying to catch up to them for decades and is still very far, they only successfully got to 65nm if I recall correctly.

there is a physics law beyond what we can pack into a chip, everyone is researching the next gen tech, simply can’t dismiss anyone from anywhere.

 

[terr]

What do you think? TSMC and ASML are sitting on their hands? They're already working on next gen. Russia has been trying to catch up to them for decades and is still very far, they only successfully got to 65nm if I recall correctly.

90. They can deliver 90nm and that in only small quantities.

 

[terr]

For what it's worth:

From:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580889341265469440

Lots of people don’t know what happened yesterday. To put it simply, Biden has forced all Americans working in China to pick between quitting their jobs and losing American citizenship [a big exaggeration here. That's not possible - terr].

Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralyzing Chinese manufacturing overnight.

With the new Biden sanctions, all American suppliers of IP blocks, components, and services departed overnight —— thus cutting off all service [to China].

Long story short, every advanced node semiconductor company is currently facing comprehensive supply cut-off, resignations from all American staff, and immediate operations paralysis.

Everyone from Lam Research at Yangtze Memory left today, and on the 12th the AMAT folks will leave as well

Not just Yangtze, but also HLMC, ICRD’s Jiading fab, Hefei’s CXMT DRAM fab All leaving Even Geehy in Hangzhou is pausing operations]

All Chinese advanced computing chip design companies are covered by these sanctions, and TSMC will no longer do any tape-out for them from now on;

The starting point for this round of sanctions is to go all the way up the food chain and ensure the elimination of all American products and technologies from the entire ecosystem;

Any company or individual who violates these sanctions face arrest by the US Department of Justice..

 

[earth_imperator]

It's the USA that chose this direction.
All to prevent China to get hi-tech.
Poor soul USA.
The Chinese will quickly adapt to the new situation...

 

[earth_imperator]

there is a physics law beyond what we can pack into a chip, everyone is researching the next gen tech, simply can’t dismiss anyone from anywhere.

Yes, at around 300 pm.

 

[earth_imperator]

These Western companies cannot return to the Chinese market, I think.

Anybody know whether AMD too is involved in this?

 

[d08]

The Chinese will quickly adapt to the new situation...

Quickly adapt to what exactly? They need 10 years at minimum to catch up. They've been trying for decades already. If you think it's something easily doable, why haven't more countries launched their semi industries.

 

[mervyn]

For what it's worth:

From:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580889341265469440

Lots of people don’t know what happened yesterday. To put it simply, Biden has forced all Americans working in China to pick between quitting their jobs and losing American citizenship [a big exaggeration here. That's not possible - terr].

Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralyzing Chinese manufacturing overnight.

With the new Biden sanctions, all American suppliers of IP blocks, components, and services departed overnight —— thus cutting off all service [to China].

Long story short, every advanced node semiconductor company is currently facing comprehensive supply cut-off, resignations from all American staff, and immediate operations paralysis.

Everyone from Lam Research at Yangtze Memory left today, and on the 12th the AMAT folks will leave as well

Not just Yangtze, but also HLMC, ICRD’s Jiading fab, Hefei’s CXMT DRAM fab All leaving Even Geehy in Hangzhou is pausing operations]

All Chinese advanced computing chip design companies are covered by these sanctions, and TSMC will no longer do any tape-out for them from now on;

The starting point for this round of sanctions is to go all the way up the food chain and ensure the elimination of all American products and technologies from the entire ecosystem;

Any company or individual who violates these sanctions face arrest by the US Department of Justice..

Let the chips fall where they may.

I can only assume those US persons in China are mostly in management positions, not scientists or line workers. That’s why the chip stocks are down. I own lot of chips stocks, AMD and NVDA in particular. Oh well, selling covered calls.