Working on Consistent Profitability

[McBet]

Quote from NoDoji:

I am 100% intensely focused with this thing, memorizing S/R levels in 4 time frames - 2 of those time frames being very dynamic - with no room for distractions or hesitation.
..

If you can't dedicate your full attention and passion to trading, put it on hold until you can. It takes that 10,000 hours of practice combined with passion and a gift for pattern recognition that translate into the ability to make a living at this.

As a beginner I thought that entrenched traders would say so just to erect barriers to entry. Actually it was the vendors who lied, because the belief that trading is easy attracts new customers and lets those already hooked generate more commissions an pay the spread with more confidence...

Financial markets are like an international musical competition, so unless you are in a position to invest the long hours of practice, you won't rise to the level sufficient to sustain yourself from the prizes and performance fees alone.

Your aim is to play the markets like this Bach fugue, plus the stress of a live performance, when a single mistake can finish your carrier - can you find the time for the long hours of practice? What looks easy to the audience, never is - swan's feet are paddling like crazy underneath the surface...

http://www.youtube.com/embed/ATbMw6X3T40

 

[Matcha]

Quote from NoDoji:

You have no business day trading CL while holding down another job. I am 100% intensely focused with this thing, memorizing S/R levels in 4 time frames - 2 of those time frames being very dynamic - with no room for distractions or hesitation.
.....
....., and I realize now that the Holy Grail is one's ability to be passionate about trading and fully focused on it day in and day out.

It's a lonely path and everyone has to find their own way. Everything you need to know technically and risk management-wise is available in books or on line. The ability to translate knowledge into action is 99% perspiration. There is no easy path; no one can do it for you.
......
If you can't dedicate your full attention and passion to trading, put it on hold until you can. It takes that 10,000 hours of practice combined with passion and a gift for pattern recognition that translate into the ability to make a living at this.

Everytime I see Nodoji posted such comment about trading, I just can't agree more. Passion and commitment is No.1 qualification for anyone to succeed in any pofession. Otherwise you will just be someone who collects pay check everyday to count down retirement.(nothing wrong with it too). Since trading has no pay to begin with and company with all the hard working and emotional ups and downs, one might need more passion and persistance for it.

IMHO, CL is a very fast moving, wildest market to trade. For beginner, unless you have an exceptional strong mind/discipline and tested your stategy in SIM with rediculously great result, risking real money is very dangerous. But again, just my humble opinion. You might need 3x more attention to trade than trade ES. The trade you took, I bet if you had traded same setup in ES, you would have no problem to hold and take profit at next resistance level-the range high. Or you will hold untill for a potential BO. The bar you got out of is an inside bar right after your entry. a normal stall. No signs to get out! Before you get in the trade, you have already known you are trading a tight trading range, if you are in, you got to give it room to wiggle unlike you are in some pullback trade... Easy for me to say, if I were to trade CL, I might get out as you did too since the risk is large...

So the point I want to actually make is. Probably you could try trade one hour per day and stay super focused? Or have you thought of trade 50 or 100 shares of SPY/QQQQ in real money, then you just trade the strategy without wrorrying about moving stops? Or trade SPY/QQQQ on a larger time frame then, only take a few trades, set your stop and target then do other job?

Just a few thoughts... I will have to deal with my own trading issues too.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from bigsnack:

I use tick based charts, and right where you got taken out for break even is where I was setting my limit order for a fill to get in. There are a couple of different ways you can interpret the entry, but basically just using price you can either see a micro level of resistance turning to support:

I call this the "second mouse" entry and I was using it a lot lately on pullback pivot entries. I wait for a previous bar break to signal a pullback entry, then wait for price to pull back to it and have a limit order waiting there. The traders who move their stops to break even right away are taken out of their trade, and then they chase a re-entry when they realized they were taken out by just a few ticks. This fuels the heat-free move from that entry point. The risk is missing the move, but on pullback entries there's enough indecision that price revisits and gives you that second chance. The tick chart gives a clean view into it. I used a tick chart briefly, but after all that over the past few weeks, I now pretty much take the first mouse entry and just leave my initial stop in place.

 

[bigsnack]

Quote from NoDoji:

I now pretty much take the first mouse entry and just leave my initial stop in place.

On the ES I will do the same, since I am comfortable with the chart and have exact prices where I know I am still safe or in trouble. So far with my CL SIMing, I'm working with limit orders. We'll see where I am after 3 months or so

 

[BCE]

Quote from Matcha:

Everytime I see Nodoji posted such comment about trading, I just can't agree more. Passion and commitment is No.1 qualification for anyone to succeed in any pofession. Otherwise you will just be someone who collects pay check everyday to count down retirement.(nothing wrong with it too). Since trading has no pay to begin with and company with all the hard working and emotional ups and downs, one might need more passion and persistance for it.

IMHO, CL is a very fast moving, wildest market to trade. For beginner, unless you have an exceptional strong mind/discipline and tested your stategy in SIM with rediculously great result, risking real money is very dangerous. But again, just my humble opinion. You might need 3x more attention to trade than trade ES. The trade you took, I bet if you had traded same setup in ES, you would have no problem to hold and take profit at next resistance level-the range high. Or you will hold untill for a potential BO. The bar you got out of is an inside bar right after your entry. a normal stall. No signs to get out! Before you get in the trade, you have already known you are trading a tight trading range, if you are in, you got to give it room to wiggle unlike you are in some pullback trade... Easy for me to say, if I were to trade CL, I might get out as you did too since the risk is large...

So the point I want to actually make is. Probably you could try trade one hour per day and stay super focused? Or have you thought of trade 50 or 100 shares of SPY/QQQQ in real money, then you just trade the strategy without wrorrying about moving stops? Or trade SPY/QQQQ on a larger time frame then, only take a few trades, set your stop and target then do other job?

Just a few thoughts... I will have to deal with my own trading issues too.

These are the kind of points I've been making too. CL is a very volatile instrument, especially lately. And as we know each tick represents $10. And as we also know, as evidenced last week, it can move nearly 2 whole points = $2,000 in one minute. And it wiggles a lot in its movements, which can make it easy to be shaken out of a trade. I repeat my former comments that I don't feel this is a good contract to trade for someone just learning to trade futures.

One of the things I think that attracts traders to this contract is the possibility of large trading wins if you can just play it right. But, you know what? That also translates into large trading losses or a string of break even trades if you don't really know what you're doing. And new futures contract traders don't. That's just the way it is. It's that way for all of us.

I mentioned in another thread that a lot of people really don't want to put the time in to really learn how to trade correctly. Everyone wants a shortcut and is interested in the possibility of huge payouts. We want to make the money of a brain surgeon but don't really see the necessity of going through all that medical school stuff. And then in discussing our trading results we say something like, "I operated on someone this morning in the bathroom using an X-Acto knife and at least I didn't kill him."

These comments aren't directed at you tlow in particular, but are applicable, I think, to all of us. I want to see everyone do well that's willing to put in the time. But I also want to caution anyone that this isn't an easy way to make a "quick buck". It's been said that day trading is the hardest way around to make some "easy money".

 

[tlow]

Hey Guys,

Sorry I wasn't able to respond to some of your comments... I was hosting company over the weekend and away from my computer for the most part. Let me address some comments/issues:

1.) The "other" job...don't take this the wrong way, as I understand you guys have my best interest in mind. But, you guys really have no idea what I do, if its full time/part time, work from home, work every other day, etc. When Im day trading...its 100% if Im busy with my "other" job, day trading is next to 0%. i can't do both, nor would I try. The "other" job, imo, has no bearing on whether or not I can be a successful trader and whether or not Im looking at the correct instrument. I think a little more of hey...are you working full time and trying to trade full time? Would've been an appropriate initial question...answer is no, btw

2.)So I decided to leave my stops in place until at least a first target is hit or the PA is fairly obvious that things have turned against me (this is where I may get myself into trouble)...As you guys said, on that 1 trade, there was really no reason to move it so I need to realize that and wait till a more appropriate level/PA shift. Im going to give this a try this trading week and see how everything holds up.

3.) Im using a 500 volume bar chart on the CL. I've been pretty much using this "speed" since I started day trading, Im fairly comfortable with it. I have a 5m chart up for a secondary...but been looking at the 2-3m charts as well during the fast moving days.

 

[tlow]

Man, I just keep screwing up enough just to shoot myself in the foot. I was actually really happy with my whole trading day up right until the end of the day.

I was a bit late waking up and then had some domestic duties to attend to so i wasnt in front of my computer until about 7:30ish. My first 2 trades of the day I was really happy with how I handled them even though they were losers. I got stopped out on the first one and then the trade was still valid so I renetered at a bit of a better price. But I got stopped out again...the thing that sucked, is the trade set-up was really good in terms of R:R but I wound up with huge slippage on both trades...for a total of 10 ticks of slippage. total bummer. Then, 1 more small loss...so started out the day with 3 losers.

But, Im happy I took the trades and waited for a proper set-up but then also reentered when the trade was still valid. I was able to keep my emotions in check thru all this. Its funny, i don't get too bent out of shape with things that are a bit out of my control like slippage.

Anyway, then my next 2 trades were the b/e arguement type trades.

9:45- Short 97.87 Stop 97.95 Target 97.26
9:53- Stop to 97.74
9:55- Stopped out at 97.74...+13 ticks

With this trade, I knew that the .50 level was pretty good support so I wanted to see momentum going up to and thru that level. Also, we were in a micro uptrend so I wanted to be smart about taking profits. price came down to the .60ish level but bounced, so I moved my stop to the nearest mini resistance level to lock in some profit. I felt like I handled this trade appropriately.

next one,

10:07- Long 97.90 Stop 97.81 Target 98.10 then 98.27 then 98.48
10:15- Sold at 97.94...+4 ticks...no follow thru.

I would've survived my stop (well maybe, came within 1 tick), but the momentum was just so slow. I was hoping to see a breakout of that triangle formation but just nothing happened.The trade would've hit my target but I can't fault myself for getting out considering there was no momentum on the b/o.

I finished up the day really crappy. I had a limit order to go short at 98.09 on the 2nd test of the 98.10 level at 11:05. Then looking to flip if I got stopped out. I just didn't get filled. So I then sent a stop order at .81 level for a b/o which worked well.

Kinda did the same thing as earlier, my initial target was .50 level, so when price went down to .40 and started coming back, I moved my stop to .51 and got stopped out for about 30 ticks. Not bad. But i was still looking for a renetry...this is where I wasa moron.

little side note, stupid NinjaTrader has this thing where the left mouse is limit orders and the middle mouse button is stop orders. instead of just automatically selecting it based on wheter you are going long/short above/below where the current bid/ask is. I send my stops manually, and I knew it was just a matter of time before I hit the left mouse button instead of the middle mouse button.

Thats what i did...shorted the next break at .24, went to go send my stop, and hit the limit order button, and got filled at the market for 3 ticks...yippie...so missed out of the rest of the end of day move.

Acutally, it was worse, b/c I tried to get back in and got stopped out...so that stupid fat finger mistake was like a 35-50 tick swing. My own fault.

Anyway, all in all I was happy that I was patient and waited for good set-ups with good R:R. But as always, would've been much nicer to walk away with a strong positive tick day.

Stats:

Total Trades: 9
Winners: 5
Losers: 4
B/E: 0
Avg. Win: 10.2
Avg. Loss: -11.5
Total Ticks: 4 ======>whoopidy do
Total Win Rate: 55.55% ====>1st day of no b/e's...now just got to follow thru and make sure I don't f*** something else up like pushing the wrong button...dumbass. hehe

 

[tlow]

Kinda bored so I thought Id give a midmorning update. Well I missed the breakout in early on...I woke up, did all my premarket stuff, thought I was ready to go...but I wasn't. Im really liking doing the cognitive journal. After I missed the b/o trade, wrote down a couple of notes in the cog journal and I realized how tired I actually was and my lack of focus that went along with that.

Anyway, I've decided I really hate those long bars on the CL...and of course we tend to get them a lot when price bounces off a s/r level. They just get really annoying and love screwing up entries. Anyway, this morning has been a bit of a test for me of, sitting on my hands.

nothing exciting to report. Had a nice fade trade set-up that fit really well right before 7am, but totally forgot about Bernake and I haven't dealt with him and the CL yet so decided its a better idea just to not deal with that...so out right away for 2 ticks...yippie! Anyway, thats my excitement for this morning.

Maybe a triangle b/o will finally work this week...lets see how this thing forms up. If nothing comes, Im taking a break...my boredom is piling up and bad things usually happen when I get bored

 

[tlow]

Finished up the day extremely crappy. I had a couple bad trades in a row and then got my a bit emotional and started deviating away from my rules. I did a better job of not completely getting out of control but it still wasn't good.

I think my emotional swings are getting smaller but that still is not ok. I had another stupid fat finger mistake...i don't think I can really call it that b/c I just wasn't prepared to manage the trade properly so I panicked a bit to get out and hit the wrong button. Again, goes back to being fully prepared and ready. So that trade turned a small profit into a small loss.

I feel like Im trying to manage my mistakes right now instead of trying to manage my trades. really not the right way to trade. The past couple days have really not been fun. Just sucks trying really hard and not trading the way i know I can. I may take a break tomorrow or only trade for a few hours.

Anyway, here are the stats really ugly. The B/E's...1 trade i got out b/c it was just a terrible trade and I realized it right away, the other, was just not following my rules I set forth....which of course, would've been a nice positive trade. Uggg...really struggling and Im making this way harder on myself than it needs to be.

Total Trades: 10
Winners: 2
Losers: 7
B/E: 2
Avg. Win: 2
Avg. Loss: -9
Total Ticks: -46
Total Win Rate: 20% ...doesnt matter might as well be 0 since I had worthless trades

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from tlow:

Anyway, I've decided I really hate those long bars on the CL...and of course we tend to get them a lot when price bounces off a s/r level. They just get really annoying and love screwing up entries.

Had a good laugh here because my first trade of the day I saw the early bird setup on the 1-min and 3-min chart, hemmed and hawed about it, then saw the nice confirmed setup on the 5-min chart and thought, "Naw, the bar's too big, stop too wide...", the price started moving and what did I do? I chased the entry and bought 1 tick from the high of the failed move. I just love starting my day down almost 20 ticks. It ensures me that I will definitely have a monster trade at some point.