Working on Consistent Profitability

Quote from tlow:

I guess that is my dilema...the winning trade on the day, it hit my first target (which is where i exited), but there were like 10-12 tick bounces going on at the time...and price stalled out just enough to get me nervous about what was going on and cutting the winner short, when there was a good chance, after the little consolidation it would run more....and it did. Had it come back, it probably would've blasted the other way fairly strongly to either a b/e stop out (or a full stop out had I not moved to b/e)
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There's nothing wrong with taking profits at an initial target, as long as it's a target based on something, not just a random fixed target. For that matter, there's nothing wrong with taking a random fixed profit on every trade if you've tested well enough to know that it provides you enough of an edge to make a living.

See, I have a 20-tick minimum target, but it doesn't mean I look to target 20 ticks on my trades. There are counter-trend trades I take where the 20-bar MA or a trend line will allow for 20 ticks or so from my entry. If price breaks a little beyond that level I often lock in 20 ticks, unless the break of the level is pretty serious, then I'll hold for more. But on my with-trend trades my minimum targets are between 30 and 100 ticks, depending on the strength of the trend and the airspace to the next S/R level. When the trade I mentioned earlier here broke both early R levels that were in play and then ran over 50 ticks in my favor, I moved my stop to lock in 20 ticks. Obviously, I saw no reason at that point to allow it to reverse back below a previous R becomes S zone.
 
Not sure about the rest of you, feel free to comment, but one thing I'd want to clarify about my own comments is that I'm not saying go ahead and get stopped out time after time no matter what. It's very important to have a good, solid plan based on technical levels, fundamentals, etc. If that's the case, and you know it's solid, then you should stick to your plan. Period. Now on the other hand, if by sticking to your plan you find yourself being stopped out for loser after loser, or you constantly fail to exit a trade in the right way to maximize the profit, then you need to get back to the drawing board and revise your plan or create a new one. We're all at least fine tuning our plans as we go. But we should stick to the plan originally to see how well it works. And I'm not just talking a few trades on any given day.
 
Holy crap...Can someone hit the reset button please. I had a wild ride today. So Im going to divide the day into 2 parts...before the big move down at around 11am PST and after.

Before:

Really just not comfortable with market movement. I was having trouble figure out how to get in comfortably and not make my stop huge. My one trade that was ok...I just made the stop too tight...even if I kept it at my max of 15 ticks, I would've survived. Again, just not comfortable with the noise.

I had 2 more trades get stopped out and made the same mistake twice. My entry was ok, but I opened up the stops just a bit. Which was the wrong thing to do, I should've kept my stops tight and then flipped if I got stopped out. I just didn't plan the trades out well enough.

So then I had another big loss where I opened the stop up and then got 4 ticks of slippage on top of that...not good...and 1 b/e...so 4 losers in a row and a b/e. The B/E Im actually really happy with how I handled it. Followed the price action and my b/e was right above a s/r flip so it was in a good place.

But, at this point Im down like 75 ticks. Im actually feeling ok, not out of whack...little mad at myself for making a couple trading mistakes and not trusting myself and my systems. So the market goes chop sideways for awhile and I wasn't doing much, I sent to stop orders right outside the hi/low of the channel figuring it would run like crazy once it broke...walked away for awhile and just mellowed out not worrying about the losses. I was still figuring stats will work themselves out, and days like today, it can happen in a hurry.

So I was able to catch the move down and got 70 or so ticks on the first leg. Then everything went to shit...

I sat out watching what was going on, and once price started bouncing a bit off the 99.04-.1 level, I figured it keeps pinging off that 99ish level, only a matter of time before it rockets lower. So I sent a stop order...but for some reason, not sure if I accidently cancelled the order, did it b/c I was uncomfortable or what...I can't remeber...so I missed the trade. It tells me I was too emotional b/c I can't even remember why or how I canceled the order.

Totally go off the rocker at this point...sell/buy...sell/buy...buy/selll totally out of whack.
Just taking trades for no reason...so stupid.

I wound up pretty much flat on the day...but man, I can't do that again. It could've actually been a really nice day even with the mistakes early on if I just followed my rules and stuck to my guns and did what I do well.

Total bummer and know Im better than how I traded today.

Anyway, the stats are all screwed up... but here is the basics:


Total Trades: 15
Winners: 6
Losers: 8
B/E: 1
Avg. Win: 16
Avg. Loss: 14
Total Ticks: -2
Total Win Rate: 40%

Not even worth analyzing the end of the day, but there is plenty I can learn from the beginning of the day and also figure out why I was so unfocused/emotional and canceled my stop order and missed the 2nd leg down. I think those are the things to focus on.
 
Tlow,

The same as you are journaling, writing down your emotions… do the same for your thoughts


Goal is to get clear minded…, opinion-less.., and centered (then remain that way throughout the day)


Use a pencil and paper to capture your thoughts…, then categorize them…, understand them.., crystallize them…, and clear your mind

Human mind is only capable of focusing on a single thing at a time…, and you’ve got maybe 9 million things roaming around in there

iow; you’re trying to sip from a fire hydrant


RN
 
You could use an excel spread sheet.

Col1

Reason for entering trade.

Col 2

Emotions felt during trade.

Col3

Profit or Loss

Col 4

Summation of trade.

Col 5

Trade #

At the bottom, create a summery to determine how may winning trades that you took, so you can create a win%.

I think you still have an issue with understanding why the trade worked or did not work after the fact. For example, although I was profitable for the day, I made the same mistake on ES. I was picking bottoms in a confirmed downtrend. I did not recognize this issue, till after I study all my ES charts later today.

So on the 1st trade that was a loss for you, be more clear. Did you have a valid technical reason for going long or short. Does this technical reason normally give you a win ratio of at least 50% if taken correctly. Do you have a valid stop and profit target.

Its obvious to most of us what happened to you today, you revenge traded part of the day. You had some losses, and reverted to gambling, just buying and selling hoping to get lucky and dig yourself out of the hole.

I was able to stay calm all day even with some losses. One of things that kept me calm was only doing 1 contract to get long in the ES, and while I had a 2nd contract near my stop, I did not move my stop lower so that while both contracts did got stopped out, the 2nd only lost me a 2 - 3 ticks. This is better for me than when I took 2 ES contracts to start the trade, and could not stand for both of them to get stopped out so I would add another contract, and bring the stop down thinking that I could at least trade back up or down to my original entry, but every once in awhile ES and of course CL will in fact trend hard in one direction.

I think what another poster said about maybe trading a different instrument where loss will not be that much in $ terms so you are not emotional about it, or trade with a stop on your current instrument that you can live with. Before you take the trade, accept the fact that you may be wrong and will take a loss. Determine how many trades you are willing to take, and stick to your plan. My long on the Euro, was going to be my last trade for the day good or bad. I had a valid reason to get in the trade and really good targets and stops. I also liked this trade since I could use a chart stop rather than a standard stop and also use a chart target rather than a standard target.



Quote from Redneck:

Tlow,

The same as you are journaling, writing down your emotions… do the same for your thoughts


Goal is to get clear minded…, opinion-less.., and centered (then remain that way throughout the day)


Use a pencil and paper to capture your thoughts…, then categorize them…, understand them.., crystallize them…, and clear your mind

Human mind is only capable of focusing on a single thing at a time…, and you’ve got maybe 9 million things roaming around in there

iow; you’re trying to sip from a fire hydrant


RN
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OW77

Good idea Sir

But I am also suggesting he dig deeper, than just trading, and bring into alignment all the stuff in his head...

It is hell having 9 million screaming voices (thoughts) in your head - makes it hard to hear yourself think

RN
 
So I pretty much set-up what oracle suggested last week, but it more divided up into different "sheets"

Here are the sheets Im using:

1.) Purely a systems sheet...shows entries/stops/exits/profit/loss/systemtradefellunder/exit strategy/etc

2.) 10 generic questions to start the day...wheres my head at? Am I emotional from yesterday or some other reason? whats the goal of the day? What have i been doing right/wrong? etc.. Also, have my important info like news and price levels written down

3.) My trading journal...write down my thoughts and trades as I go
4.) Cognitive journal...just for emotionally charged events divided into columns, event that triggered emotion, what Im menally thinking, how Im emotionally coping and physically coping, and what would a coach or outside/uninvolved person tell me right now?

Then I have a couple other things I do end of the day to review/summerize.

Again, thanks for all the tips/advice...I know I may not use them all and/or debate/discuss if and how they will work for me, but its really good stuff. Keep it coming!

EDIT: I should note...Im much more detailed with the technicals of my trades in my own stuff..I usually just give you guys the gist of what my trades were thru the day. I think at some point I said I was going to start posting my trades, so Maybe I will start doing that again.
 
Man, I traded like absolute dogsh*t today. Not too bad on the emotional front, just really poor trading. I took two bad trades...1 just not right and another just kinda bad...at least I had it set-up properly to flip to give me my 1 winner on the day but I should not have been in the first part of the trade.

I was late on entries all day. Just way overthing/overanalyzing coupled with enough selfdoubt at the moment to not give me good entries.

I had 2 B/E's on the day, I was slow getting in on a support area so I took an entry that had plenty of confirmation on numerous time frames...I kept the stop thru the initial wiggle but then moved to b/e once it came back...the problem was as we talked, about the b/e stop was right before a support area so was a really bad place to have a stop. I think I need to understand that better...that if I dont get an optimal entry and wait for a bit for confirmation, i may need some more wiggle room since Im probably a little bit further away from the latest s/r. Anyway, that totally sucked..cost 50 ticks of profit.

But after going thru my b/e trades in SIM, I think I just need to do more of what NoD talks about and being a bit more dynamic with my stop. I shouldn't move to b/e just because it moved x ticks...especially on volatile days. Let the PA dictate my stop a bit better. I was definitely apart of the stop picking today by the big boys.

Its kinda funny I say this now, b/c my first trade was a loser...it was a failed b/o and I was out like trout as soon as it came back so instead of a full stop out it was only like 8 ticks...just need to do something similar with my b/e stops...let PA dictate.

My last trade was another B/e where I didn't let PA dictate...hit my initial target, came back a bit, retested the target zone, but instead of exiting when it couldn't push thru I held on...for drum roll please...a b/e. Not very good trading. Really wish I could've finished the week on a good note trading wise.

I feel like when i started about 6 months ago I had no idea what I was doing so I was able to accept some of the mistakes I was making. But now that I KINDA know what Im doing, I don't think the trading mistakes (emotions aside) should be as frequent as they are. Im probably being too hard on myself as I tend to be, but it only adds to my frustration when I don't trade properly.

Im glad the week's over. Im mentally, physically, and emotionally exhausted. I must say I've learned a ton about myself this week. Hopefully, a bit of rest over the weekend and I can put together a couple of good trading days next week (of course, I may not be around b/c of my real jobby job)

stats on the day:

Total Trades: 6
Winners: 1
Losers: 3
B/E: 2
Avg. Win: 25
Avg. Loss: -10.67
Total Ticks: -5
Total Win Rate: 16.67%

Stats on the week:

Total Trades: 28
Winners: 9
Losers: 12
B/E: 7
Avg. Win: 26.125
Avg. Loss: -8.20
Total Ticks: 44
Total Win Rate: 28.75% --->yikes.

one last note on the win%...after doing my b/e analysis, my winrate would drastically improve if I was better with those stops. This week alone is a good example of that...would've put me over the 50% range (small sample set I know).

Sad Face :( Trading is hard.

I feel like a freshman in their first semester; lost on campus everywhere I go :)

One last thanks to everyone again for helping me push thru this week. Its been a rough 10 days or so thanks for the ideas, critiques, and support.
 
Tlow

Trading is not hard – we make it hard – or not


Okay so patience was an issue today (took bad / late trades) – have a think on that this weekend please




You are growing your brain - like any other muscle... and like any other muscle that gets a work out - it hurts afterwards

But that will subside in time.. :)

One foot in front of the other - always

eta;

I’m having a rather lengthy discussion about stops on another thread (yee haa)

Bottom line – if you can find a fixed stop setting and use it… it’ll free upthinking about stops… so you can focus more on entries - for now

(and if you want help finding one just pm me)

RN
 
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