Working on Consistent Profitability

Quote from NoDoji:

Missing fills is easy to correct, place your orders a few ticks inside. Sometimes you're right on the money and just don't get filled. In that case you have to decide if it's worth giving up a few ticks to get in right away (with-trend usually is; counter-trend I won't chase).
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Ya I guess this is my dilema and maybe im not quick enough to figure it out. Take yesterday, the fill I missed at 84.41 around 9:50. That is a trade I obviously should've chased the entry on, however, for me, and my limited experience...the CL moves so fast, it hits s/r, then will bounce 7-10 ticks in a blink...so even that 10 secs of hesitation may mean my fill is say 8 ticks away from my original entry...Now what to do with my stop? Do I open it up? Put it at 84.42 and give it no wiggle room since thats where the last know resistance took place?

I think the stop placement issue is where I hesitate on chasing entries...right now, I really have no interest on chasing fades, either they get filled where I want them to or they don't...especially since my stops are usually pretty tight...but with trend, especially yesterday, it would've been nice to make some of those trades.
 
Man I feel like someone shot my dog...Had my first real losing day in awhile, which is a total bummer b/c I just went back and redid the day...and ya, there definitely would've been some losers on the day, but there is no reason I should not have walked away with 40+ ticks.

Just shaking my head at myself.

Anyway, I was half asleep early on so I decided just to wait it out till inventories came out. Then I had 3 stop outs right in a row.

My first trade I got caught in the false breakdown at around 8:00... no biggie except I made my stop WAY too big for whatever reason, I really have no idea why i did...boom 18 ticks in the hole. So trade idea wasn't bad, terrible execution...then I tried to get in on a pull back to go long totally in the wrong place...stop out #2...Then it broke down a bit, missed that...so tried to get in short on a retest...but didn't think that one all the way thru...a really positive bar showed up on the 5m chart at 8:25 and I just wasn't paying enough attention...total mental lapse...so stop out #3.

At this point, Im totally mentally whacked out and thinking about calling it a day. I decide to stick with it since I remind myself, if I trade my set-ups properly those poor trades will work themselves out.

But, instead of just taking my set-ups without emotion...I started doubting myself and the whole fear of being wrong or fear of not trading well crept in. I was able to catch just bits and pieces of the move up...but then when it made the move down, I was in a great position to catch a lot of thoses waves down. However, got totally jumpy...was unsure about myself and the trades..and wound up with 5 ticks here 10 ticks there.

Really amazing how emotions can play tricks on your eyes and mind.

Anyway, Im totally bummed I had a losing day and even more bummed I traded so poorly. The day was my type of day and I should've been able to kill it.

Im glad I did review the day, becuase I was thinking about just stepping away from the computer and not doing my usual review. It gives me more confidence to know had I traded everything properly, the day would've been plenty green.

Ugly stats on the day:

Total Trades: 11
Winners: 5
Losers: 5
B/E: 1
Avg. Win: 4.8 <======= are you effing serious? Im a jackass
Avg. Loss: -10.6
Total Ticks: -17
Total Win Rate: 45.45% <====kinda worthless since the 2 would've been runners I only got 10 and 6 ticks out of
 
So I've had a pretty rough past 3 days. Things have spiraled out of control fairly quickly. I just can't get my emotions under control. Its gotten to the point where it is fairly blinding and the emotions totally control my thinking and I don't see things clearly.

Im trying to be really honest and open with myself as I struggled with this when I first started trying day trading. I know that trading itself, analysis, etc isn't the problem...it all comes down to my emotions. It doesn't matter if I take my optimal set-ups, decide to SIM for another 6 months, backetest, whatever, I know none of it matters because my emotions are my limiting factor. Normally, when I struggle with stuff I just keep at it until I figure it out or something clicks and it may lead me down a slightly different path. With trading, I don't really have that luxury since Im always capital limited.

I've never really quit at anything in my life but Im getting close to throwing in the towel. I really don't want to be another failure stat but if I can't control it...I can't control it. Its just really disappointing.

I really like trading and enjoy analyzing the markets and figuring stuff out...its extremely analytical and that is how my brain works so it just sucks saying you can't control an aspect of something you really enjoy.

I want to tell myself to suck it up...figure it out...and get over it...but with trading it just doesn't work that way. I know its only been a couple days of really bad, and Im only down a couple hundred bucks, so from that stand point its no biggie. But I know myself well enough to understand what is going on. The problem is fixing it or accepting it or figuring a way around it...whatever the case may be. One last reason I think I struggle with this, and I know I mentioned this before, but Im really not that emotional of a guy. Its really hard to accept that my emotions are so over powering with this 1, and seemingly only 1, aspect of my life.

Anyway, Im going to talk it over with the fam and give it a long hard thought over the weekend. Honestly, Im 95% of the way there to calling it quits. Sorry for bearing my soul in such a lengthy manner, but this doesn't even begin to describe my overall disappointment and disappointment in myself.
 
Hey man, sorry to hear you are going through a tough time. Everyone has their path, and I think that there is respect in deciding sooner rather than later that this may not be for you. That being said, it would be great to see you hang in there and finally get over the hump.

All I can say is that I have been there. I went back and forth between SIM and live multiple times, and in fact I still only trade live in the a.m., and SIM the afternoons. I only have a certain amount of legitimate analysis in me every day, before I break down and become emotional as well. This happens to me whether I am trading badly or trading well, so again there's not much I can do about it except walk away.

If you really enjoy the markets, then is there any harm in continuing to study? That's what kept me going. After a particularly brutal week where I had been beaten down, that was a large realization that I had. I realized that I really just enjoyed the analytical process (just like you). Once I realized that, I said to myself that I would SIM endlessly until trading seemed as mundane and routine as my other job. Only then did I start to dabble with live trading again, and even then it would be one live trade for every 5 SIM trades. Edit: In fact, there are days where still do this. If I oversleep or am sick or whatever, it's SIM all the way.

I don't know what your financial situation is, but having additional income was and continues to be a huge plus for me. There is no pressure on me to provide for my family with trading income, and I plan to keep it that way until still having the day job seems like idiocy and a waste of time.

Lastly, If you wanted advice about your trading, personally I still feel like there are some things you might be able to improve upon. I think it might be easier for you to find a better way to give your trades context. Whether that's larger time frame analysis, or market profile, or whatever. I also think you would be in better shape if you could get that win rate up. I know that's not necessary, but in your case it might be some chicken soup for the psyche if you could feel like you were at least seeing the market right more often than you were seeing it wrong.

Sorry for the long winded reply. Take it for what it's worth :)
 
Tlow,

FWIW, you are going through the EXACT learning curve and emotions that all (or nearly all ) traders go through.

Rather than be dissappointed in yourself , accept that this is the process of growth and learning.

If you continue trading, these are but a few bad trades out of the thousands of successfull trades that are ahead of you.

You're allowed a few screwups along the way.

Rgds,
jas
 
Quote from tlow:

So I've had a pretty rough past 3 days. Things have spiraled out of control fairly quickly. I just can't get my emotions under control. Its gotten to the point where it is fairly blinding and the emotions totally control my thinking and I don't see things clearly.

Im trying to be really honest and open with myself as I struggled with this when I first started trying day trading. I know that trading itself, analysis, etc isn't the problem...it all comes down to my emotions. It doesn't matter if I take my optimal set-ups, decide to SIM for another 6 months, backetest, whatever, I know none of it matters because my emotions are my limiting factor. Normally, when I struggle with stuff I just keep at it until I figure it out or something clicks and it may lead me down a slightly different path. With trading, I don't really have that luxury since Im always capital limited.

I've never really quit at anything in my life but Im getting close to throwing in the towel. I really don't want to be another failure stat but if I can't control it...I can't control it. Its just really disappointing.

I really like trading and enjoy analyzing the markets and figuring stuff out...its extremely analytical and that is how my brain works so it just sucks saying you can't control an aspect of something you really enjoy.
.......
Anyway, Im going to talk it over with the fam and give it a long hard thought over the weekend. Honestly, Im 95% of the way there to calling it quits. Sorry for bearing my soul in such a lengthy manner, but this doesn't even begin to describe my overall disappointment and disappointment in myself.
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tlow.
Please don't give up if this is truly something you have passion for.
I can't comment on your system and CL since I have no idea of them. But what really has been calmed me down is to only foucs one setup that I do well. Then you learn the context(that takes a while).

In the past posts, you have been mentioned many times that you are struggling with stops. As a matter of fact, you constantly not sure when to move stop when to take profits shows the system hasn't been fully tested. You are just not confident about it. And forget about how much money you make everyday. At this point, it;s the least thing you should be thinking about.
IMHO, Why not go back to sim and just trade one set up. Cool youself down. Extract $200 or $150 from market everyday isn't so bad.
The other thing I have been doing is backtest the setup. I am not sure how you do yours. I traded historical chart(from 2005) and covered right hard edge. Then I have a speadsheet (same as my post analysis sheet) that I marked entry, stop, target, trail, heat, first retrace. maxi proft, setup, reverse or re-enter. then I traded it as each bars showing. The backtesting hypothetical is super time consuming and the result will be a bit off from the real time for sure but you could find a lot of common behavior of the instrument and learn the market context..

Down couple of hundreds really isn't a big deal. I had the same situation like yours back in Oct. Then I came back to sim which I am glad I did. I knew that i missed a lot of things in my system.

Stay tough and don't ever doubt about yourself. Take some time off as much as you needed. Market will always reward hard working traders with a strong mind.

I am not quiting, why you?:p
 
I agree with Matcha 100%. Pick one setup, and learn how to KILL that setup in your sleep. If the CL is your instrument of choice, that would most likely be all that you need anyway.

For instance, I have a trade I call the "lip" trade. This is only one of a number of lip trades that took place today on the CL. This single trade was a 75 tick winner after a TP at the first support that the market found after selling off, nevermind the fact that the move was only half over at that point. This is a trade that I am so confident in, I HAVE to take it when I see it, or else I feel sick to my stomach. You need a setup like that man. Something that you have seen so often and know so well that it is harder to not pull the trigger as opposed to pulling it.

Does the CL have key times where it likes to move? I'm not too familiar with it yet, but a lot of markets have specific windows of time where they begin a good deal of their trends. Maybe find one of those windows for the CL and add a pad of 15 minutes to each end. Then, only take trades at this time. You may find that specific levels of support / resistance will tend to trade at the same times of day, and that's where you can start putting together your context.... Hopefully you see where I'm going with this. Anyway, here is a jpeg of the lip trade I am referring to.:D

18163610zhiawedt.png
 
Tlow

I’ve lost count of the number of times I thought about quitting along my journey….

Coming to terms with our emotions is one of the aspects we’ve all faced

My palms would sweat… my breathing would become labored…. my mind would race…. scared to pull the trigger.... (sound familiar )

I've been there......


But it does go away with time…, experience…, and….

Once you accept and become comfortable with the fact there will be losers…,

While also coming to know – using and relying on our stops to protect us – is the ultimate answer


Stops are the only control we have over the market…. Straight up….

To trade we must risk some money… and there are times we will lose that money… stops ensure we don’t lose one cent more…

It can be no other way…….

==============================================================================================

You post is an honest assessment...

Ultimately it is up to you to decide whether to continue or not….

Please use that same wonderful honesty to help you decide…..


RN
 
Hi :)

I just sent you a rather long PM with some thoughts on all of this. Sorry you're having a difficult time right now as I want everyone to do well, especially the nice people. :) Most all of us that have been doing this for a while have been where you now find yourself. You just have to hang in there. And taking a break doesn't hurt either. When things aren't clicking it's good to call time out and reassess the situation and also seek advice from people that have gone through what you're going through (which is most all of us) and figured out how to get past it and be successful. There are some good people here that I know will try to help you out. I'll contribute some more hopefully useful advice as I have time.

At least the rains are gone from SoCal today and it's nice and sunny. And we have snow on the mountain tops in Santa Barbara. It's beautiful. Have a great day and as Neil Young said, "Don't let it bring you down. It's only castles burning. Find someone who's turning. And you will come around." Hang in there and don't be discouraged or down on yourself. We, your friends, will help you.


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