Working on Consistent Profitability

So an OK trading day for me...not much worked and there were 2 times were I was late to the party b/c I didn't plan my trades out properly or was thinking about the previous trade. Today just seemed like a lot of work. I feel pretty good about almost all my trades but a little dissappointed b/c I didn't handle 2 of the non-trades very well and that would've been the difference between a 40-50 tick day and the 7 ticks I wound up with...yippie....better than losing money.

Anyway, yesterday was a non event..total chop didnt want to mess around with it so I only had 2 trades. Between yesterday and today, I think I did a pretty good job of taking trades as they developed and stuck to my rules during the chop.

For today, here is one of the trades that Im doing a bit more analyzing on...

8:42- Short 86.59 Stop 86.66 Target 86.39 then .27 then .16
8:45- Stopped out at 86.66...- 7 ticks.

I felt like since price had started to move sideways, there was pretty good resistance around .57-.65 level so the R:R seemed ok and it had the potential to run run further past my first target. Im still a little unsure if you could say the overall trend shifted up at that point, my line of thinking was it was still sideways. Anyway, I think the trade was ok but didn't work out, but like the other day...I didn't quite set it up properly. I shoulda flipped long if I got stopped out since it would most likely run up to the 87.00ish level if it broke that line of resistance...which of course it did.

Anyway, I missed the other big move up and then was able to manage a small positive trade towards the end of the day when it went a bit choppy.

One other note....there are a couple other things I've been mentally trying to do before and during my trades.

1- who is on the other side of the trades in this zone
2- Is my set-up still valid...is my set-up still valid
3- has another set-up developed to invalidate the current set-up

i guess I want to keep progressing and move beyond...ok here is a set-up..enter...exit. Im trying to make sure I don't over think, but I definitely like the feeling of fully understanding the picture (or attempting to anyway :))

Stats for yesterday:

Total Trades: 2
Winners: 0
Losers: 1
B/E: 1
Avg. Win (ticks): 0
Avg. Loss (ticks): -6
Total Ticks: -5
Total Win Rate: 0%

Stats for today:

Total Trades: 10
Winners: 2
Losers: 4
B/E: 4
Avg. Win (ticks): 17
Avg. Loss (ticks): -7.75
Total Ticks: 7
Total Win Rate: 20.00%
 
Quote from tlow:

For today, here is one of the trades that Im doing a bit more analyzing on...

8:42- Short 86.59 Stop 86.66 Target 86.39 then .27 then .16
8:45- Stopped out at 86.66...- 7 ticks.

I felt like since price had started to move sideways, there was pretty good resistance around .57-.65 level so the R:R seemed ok and it had the potential to run run further past my first target. Im still a little unsure if you could say the overall trend shifted up at that point, my line of thinking was it was still sideways. Anyway, I think the trade was ok but didn't work out, but like the other day...I didn't quite set it up properly. I shoulda flipped long if I got stopped out since it would most likely run up to the 87.00ish level if it broke that line of resistance...which of course it did.
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I think you're referring to Pacific time, correct? If so, here's the technical analysis:

The inventory report created a new LOD of 86.03 which was tested and held, followed by a break through previous 86.52 resistance, which failed. Price moved in a narrowing range of higher lows and lower highs, forming a not-quite-symmetrical triangle. Basically connect the 86.57, 86.53, and 86.49 highs, and connect the 86.03 and 86.12/86.09 lows and you have a triangle-thingy.

For a confirmed triangle breakout entry by way of demonstration of buying or selling strength, you look to buy a break of the outer range of the triangle, in this case, buying 86.58 or selling 86.02.

The 8:42 PST bar breaks the 86.57 upside level, triggering you into a long position if you bracketed that triangle.

There was nothing wrong with shorting in that post inventory mess (I had a successful short in there off the failed break through 86.52), but once the higher lows started being put in, it was time to just let price pick a direction for you because a symmetrical triangle breakout can be very powerful and it's a sign of indecision, so we as traders shouldn't be acting as if we know which side will take control eventually. I was positioned long on the break of the narrow part of the triangle and exited for 20 ticks ASSUMING the upper part of the range was selling off even though I had just said to my trading roomies that I was planning to raise my profit target because of the breakout potential. Amazing how well assumptions can interfere with proper trading :eek:

Frank the difference between you and me is that I will keep pounding that move until the trend proves it's no longer my friend. I put on 5 more longs on that move up, because by gosh my poor broker needs those commissions!
 
NoD,

I see what you are talking about...I actually had the same lines drawn on my chart, but I saw them more as trendlines than a triangle. Kinda an ugly looking triangle :)

Anyway, for me I was thinking that the upward break of the 86.25ish level was probably the place to get long to get in early. I, however, was nervous looking long with that somewhat double topish looking stuff pre/post inventory report. In hindsight, I think I should of used the failure to make a new LOD as guidance especially when the 86.10 level held.

With that said, I still feel like the .60 level was a pretty major resistance area. Ya, if it broke upwards it was probably going to run, but I figured since I could get in right around .60 with a tight stop the trade seemed worth it.

I guess what Im getting at is had I put in a proper stop order to flip long do you think overall that would be an ok trade?
 
So today's lesson is, "Patience grasshopper" :)

I had a couple of really good trades that I got out way to quick on and just shoulda hung in there. Still wound up a pretty good day and I felt really good for the most part about my trading.

A couple of the trades:

The early morning pit action a pretty good looking rising channel formed and i wanted to take advantage of some of the bounce off the channel... I figured if it broke out of the channel in one direction or the other it would probably run pretty far.

6:47- long 86.95 Stop 86.85 Target 87.30
6:49- Stop to B/E
7:01- Sold at 87.24...+29 ticks

I really wanted to flip short after I sold this long trade to take advantage of a bounce downwards. I hesistated a bit (this still may be a bit advanced for me) and missed my entry so I waited to see if it would come down to the bottom of the channel. Once it came down I shorted the channel break at 86.95..it came back up and got a stop out for an 11 tick loss...tried again, when it went down again, but came out with a B/E on the 2nd try. At that point I was a bit frustrated and walked away from the computer figuring it would chop around for a bit. Whoops...bombs away!

Came back 10 mins later and the thing tanks. Oh well. thats the way it goes...The one thing I am happy with is I didnt' try and chase a trade towards the bottom, just waited for new set-ups to form.

With NoD's infinite wisdom, she suggested putting in a stop order at the .85 level which I obviously should've done in hindsight, but at the time I was a little frustrated to see things clearly.

Next trade that required more patience:

9:29- Long 85.95 Stop 85.85 Target 86.20 then .36 then .47 will flip short if I get stopped out
9:34- Stop to B/E
9:51- Sold at 86.20...+25 ticks

At the time, there was a pretty nice triangle forming up and I was fairly unsure which way price was going to go. I figured I would take a long trade off the bottom of the triangle since a HL was put in place and then hope for a break above the upper triangle trendline. Price made an initial break of the .20 level but then it came right back, I was thinking it was going to be a failed breakout so i just got out. In hindsight, at that point the trend was up so i should've held longer since I was with the trend. Of course, price runs up to my last target to the tick :) I don't think I would've held that long since there was another retrace, but probably would've gotten 10 more ticks out of the trade.

Last more patience trade...this one really blows:

10:19- Short 86.42 Stop 86.51 Target 86.20 then 86.06
10:24- Stop to B/E
10:31- Cover at 86.25...+17 ticks

Once price ran up to the .47 level, there was good resistance, nice double top formed, perfect place to go short. A nice upward trendline had formed off the 85.63 level since around 8:30 so I thought if I could get in here and then hope for a break below that rising trendline, it should be a nice trade. Good thinking...poor execution. I got out as soon as price started bouncing around just a bit on the rising trendline. Of course, it broke the trendline and shot way down.

I called it a day after this trade since I was a little brain dead and somewhat frustrated with myself for not finishing the trades well. Today I felt like I had the right idea most of the day, just didn't quite follow thru properly.

Stats on the day:

Total Trades: 8
Winners: 4
Losers: 2
B/E: 2
Avg. Win (ticks): 23.5
Avg. Loss (ticks): -12.5
Total Ticks: 71
Total Win Rate: 50.0%

Give myself a "B" on the day.
 
Mega frustrating day....really my own fault. I just didn't trade very well, I was a little late to the party on most of my trades and then I would try and get in on a breakout only to be wiggled out for a stop out or B/E. Just made it so frustrating being on the right side of the trade only to be sitting on the sidelines and watch price run. I think I may go back into 2008 and do some more backtesting when there are these days where price just runs. Haven't dealt with many of these days on the CL.

Stats on the day:

Total Trades: 11
Winners: 2
Losers: 4
B/E: 5
Avg. Win (ticks): 31
Avg. Loss (ticks): -10.75
Total Ticks: 24
Total Win Rate: 18.18%

Missed most of Friday's action because I was late getting up and had errands to run in the morning, so I only traded towards the end of the day:

Total Trades: 5
Winners: 1
Losers: 2
B/E: 2
Avg. Win (ticks): 29
Avg. Loss (ticks): -9
Total Ticks: 13
Total Win Rate: 20.0%
 
Quote from tlow:

I think I may go back into 2008 and do some more backtesting when there are these days where price just runs. Haven't dealt with many of these days on the CL.
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You never know when it'll be a trend day or a chop day or a big wide range day, but I've found that by noting all minor and major S/R levels first thing each morning I can be more patient letting my trades run when indicated. Once a set of minor S/R levels is breached and price reaches an air pocket, I suggest patiently letting the winner run.

And example is today I noted the overnight high/low, then I noted a pivot support level off the daily chart in case price broke out the overnight low. That pivot support was 88.45 from 1/7, so if I played a breakout of the 89.21 low, I would target 88.45 if the breakout was strong. I positioned myself for that breakout 3 times, third one was the charm, and price fell right through that airspace, finding major support @ 88.40.
 
Totally been lagging on the journal. Sorry about that...guess I should apologize to myself. I wan't trading/everyday last week, but it still wound up being a pretty good week. I felt like I traded fairly decent...maybe about a B/B-. I definitely feel like things are starting to come a bit easier.

I did spend a lot of last week looking into other brokerages and whatnot. Im planning on going back live as soon as everything is funded and opened up. I decided to go with Mirus Futures with a ZenFire feed cleared thru RCG and then trade on NinjaTrader since I already have some familiarity with it.

NinjaTrader is far from perfect, but its pretty cheap and does almost everything I need it to do. I really wanted to stay on a Linux/Java based platform, but after looking around, since Im only trading on a laptop I think its better not to fight the computer since Java is a resource hog. Anyway, hopefully, sooner than later I will build myself up a dedicated trading machine and then just use my laptop for messing around.

I've been doing some SIMming in NT, nothing serious, just messing around to become more familiar. I may spend an extra couple days once the account is funded just to make sure Im not messing anything up on the platform end.

Another note, been working on my stats sheet as well as a "set-up sheet" I will post it once I have it a bit more finalized. Im really thinking about messing around more with a database software and/or pivot tables to keep more specific stats about each set-up...that is a work in progress and on the back burner for now.

So here are teh stats from last week:

Total Trades: 31
Winners: 11
Losers: 11
B/E: 9
Avg. Win (ticks): 48.42
Avg. Loss (ticks): -13.85
Total Ticks: 293
Total Win Rate: 48.30%

Really like seeing that winrate over the 40-45% area. That usually means I traded pretty well. One thing I dont like is my avg loss was up near the 14 tick range. I think that had to do with me being uncomfortable during the days last week where there was a ton of movement.

Oh ya...so close to catching a 1 pointer on Friday... 97 ticks. Even with that trade, I still only give myself a C+/B- on the day...had I traded better I probably would've wound up wiht close to 2 points total on the day...wound up with 119.

No trades today. I've been messing around with computer stuff and Ninjatrader...contacting the brokers...etc. Im going to keep up the SIM trading as much as possible until everything is set to go.
 
Alrighty...we are finally back live trading...yippie.

I only got about a half day of trading in today. I was having issues getting the data/chart feed up and running properly. Felt good to be live trading again. I forgot how different it feels to live trade vs. SIM.

Trading wise, I had a so-so day. I was short of the big push down to LOD (well I was short before the drop) only to get stopped out to the tick for a B/E. Total bummer. Normally on SIM, if there was good momentum I would just send a stop order to 1 tick below the LOD to get back in, or if there was an appropiate pullback get in that way. But I sat on the sidelines and watched instead.

I had 1 other trade after that, again, the difference between SIM and live trading showed up. I was a bit late sending the order b/c I decided to have another think about the trade and that caused me to not get filled. My long entry price was perfect, 1 tick above the support area...however, i hesistated just enough not to get filled and then I sat on the bid waiting my turn in line.

Definitely need to be aware of this going forward. If I miss trades that are super profitable like the ones I missed today, it going to kill my winrate and number of ticks per day.

One last note, my B/E stop out before the big move down got me thinking about B/E's in general. As time goes on, and if/when I become a better trader, Im wondering if I need to ditch the move to B/E. Right now, it feels more like a safety net on a trade. Or to put it another way, if I identify set-ups and trades correctly, will a move to B/E be necessary? Time will tell on that one.

Stats on the day:

Total Trades: 3
Winners: 0
Losers: 1
B/E: 2
Avg. Win: 0
Avg. Loss: 11
Total Ticks: -9
Total Win Rate: 0%
 
Quote from tlow:

Right now, it feels more like a safety net on a trade. Or to put it another way, if I identify set-ups and trades correctly, will a move to B/E be necessary?
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No, it's absolutely unnecessary, once you clearly identify your edge and then trade all setups. Leave the initial stop and when price reaches your target zone, your only decision is whether to take profits or let it run further.

I now trade all my setups and despite taking more losses, I'm ending up with waay more profits.
 
Holy Crap...what a day...man talk about a rollercoaster. I pretty much traded like dog poop all day only to be saved on my last couple trades of the day.

Some flaws going from SIM to live are coming glaring out, which I think is a good thing because I can fix them.

1.) Still really struggling with taking profits when there is a 15-20 tick move. I think this may come down to identifying chop/slow moving markets. There were 2 trades today that wound up a t B/E's and the more appropriate thing would've been to get out for a 10-12 tick gain, instead I just watch the thing like a deer in headlights run back to my stop.

2.) Through the middle of the day, I had a couple of bad trades but then I also had a couple trades where I just got jumpy and either exited or move to B/E too quickly. The bad trades I think were compounded from being frustrated with the chop and myself of moving to B/E too quickly. I definitely "forced myself" into the market a couple times, when I should've waited for the set-up to form up properly.

I really can't believe I came out ahead today. I was actually short the 85.60 level towards the end of the day...that is where I got stopped out for a b/e...I tried one other trade to go long around 85.32ish level but got stopped out...at that point I almost called it quits, but figured I would send a stop order to short the LOD.

I got in right at 85.12 so that was good, but I was a bit jumpy getting out, sold at 84.76, when I probably should've held on longer. I think I was jumpy b/c of all the poor trading and happy to walk away with something. But...had I just held my ground and traded better I would've been in at the very beginning of the move down for what would've been around a 1 pointer.

In just 2 days of live trading, the moves to B/E I think are already coming out as a glaring flaw in my trading. Im going to stick with the moves to B/E for the time being, BUT I think as I do a better job taking set-ups and not forcing my way into market, the moves to B/E will stop. Another trend that I've noticed is that as I get better at identifying entry points, my stops are becoming tighter and tighter. So I don't think a move to B/E would even be necessary if the trade is set-up right...I may only have a 7 point stop...I know 2 days of live trading isn't enough to make a rule out of something like this so I will watch this closely over the next couple weeks/months.



Stats on the day:

Total Trades: 12
Winners: 3
Losers: 5
B/E: 4
Avg. Win: 31.33
Avg. Loss: -9.4
Total Ticks: 50
Total Win Rate: 33.33%

This is another reason why I really like the CL...I really traded like crap all day, but 1 or 2 good trades can put you on the positive side in a hurry :)
 
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