Working on Consistent Profitability

Sorry no posts lately...been MIA since the middle of december.

I've been moving and on vacation. My plan is to resume trading probably after the 1st or 2nd week in January. I know Im not quite at my goal of 50 ticks per day, but Im hoping 1 more month of SIM in positive territory and then possibly make the switch back over to live trading.

Be back in a few weeks.
 
Okay so Im back into the swing of things. I started SIMming again last week but wasn't full time and I wasn't taking it very serious so Im not even really bothering reanalyzing, going over stuff, etc...Yesterday was my first full day back taking everything serious and not messing around.

Pretty bad day yesterday, not sure if it was rust, set-ups, just poor trading on my part or what. But I just couldn't do anything right.

here are the stats:

Total Trades: 6
Winners: 1
Losers: 5
B/E: 0
Avg. Win (ticks): 9
Avg. Loss (ticks): -9.8
Total Ticks: -40
Total Win Rate: 16.67%

Today, a little different story...i was a little late waking up so I missed that great breakout move downwards...bummer. The theme of taking profits when price moves 20 or so ticks in my favor is still an issue. I just don't have enough stats and my stats aren't quite detailed enough to make hard and fast rules about this. It still needs major work. If Im against the trend, which is rare, I have no problem taking the profits. However, today I went with the trend all day so when it move a bit and then stop that is when I get nervous/anxious...I currently try to base the decision on where the major s/r levels are, but at times a micro s/r level develops and thats is when Im at my most indecisive.

Today, I believe I made the correct decisions, b/c while price continued in my favor, both times after that, it would have made hard bounces against me had I still been in the trade. I guess I just need more forward testing/screen time to work this out. In each case I wound up with about 15 ticks...max ticks would've been around 30 for each trade. Just looking over the two trades today, had I stayed in i believe I would have placed a new stop at the micro s/r, in these cases giving me and extra 5 ticks or so total. I think I just need to start taking more detailed notes/stats when this stuff is going on.

One other note, Im still really working hard on getting in during the middle of the trend....it seems my plays off s/r and trying to get the best fill possible may be hurting more over the long run...1.) it winds up keeping me out of a lot of good trades by 1-5 ticks and 2.) there are times where price just keeps going and I get stopped out almost right away.

I definetly think there is a time and place for direct plays off s/r levels...today from about 8:30-9:30ish pst for example. I think I just need to continue to reconginze when I need to try and get a really good fill off s/r level vs. getting in 1 tick above/below a reversal bar.

Lastly, I've been rereading through my journal and my trading log. Im pretty amazed at how fast one can learn and learn from others if one does the work...I feel like a completely different trader than when i started. I still feel like I know next to nothing...but the current next to nothing is WAY more than the next to nothing 4-5 months ago :)

Here are the stats on the day:

Total Trades: 5
Winners: 3
Losers: 1
B/E: 1
Avg. Win (ticks): 22.33
Avg. Loss (ticks): -10.00
Total Ticks: 58
Total Win Rate: 60.0%

I missed two trades that would've been really nice winners today b/c I was messing around the with the dog and late waking up. If I ever want to do this full time, I really need to shore up those things.
 
Quote from tlow:

I missed two trades that would've been really nice winners today b/c I was messing around the with the dog and late waking up. If I ever want to do this full time, I really need to shore up those things.
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Good to see you back, T!

You got that right! I'm up about 2 1/2 hours before NYMEX open, then spend time noting all minor and major S/R levels, as well as levels in larger time frames, including 20-period EMA levels on the 60-min and daily chart. Then I have a bite to eat, feed the dog, come back, close my office door and get to work. Many times there are great pre-market setups and I often have a core profit accrued before the pit even opens. The nice thing about catching the runners during early day volatility is you aren't later tempted to get back what you missed by trying to make something out of nothing when the volume dries up.
 
So a somewhat unexciting day for how much movement there was...I was late getting up again...I guess I should state that I've been sick for the past 2 months so sometimes getting up before 6am just isn't in the cards.

So I missed the majority of the movement and my head just wasn't in it today b/c I feel like crap. I had my 1 trade similar to yesterday of moving 20 or so ticks and then stopping

Here is the trade:

10:13- Short 89.55 Stop 89.66 Target 89.30 then .20 then .08 then 88.94
10:15- stop to B/E
10:29- stopped out at B/E...+1 tick

Im thinking I need to change my mentality a little about these trades...currently, I get in at whatever point...pick my first target at the nearest s/r level and then hope for a break further and have the next 2-3 s/r levels targeted out. Today it was a pretty solid bounce off the support level at .30 level and I had it all planned in my head to get out if it couldn't push below .30, but I held on. I think I need to realize getting out at .35-.40 with a .15-.20 gain is still a win and then looking for reentry is not such a bad thing. I think right now I feel for whatever reason that if the trade doesn't break further that I need to hold on and "hope" for a further break or else its not a good enough "breakout" trade in my mind. Sorry kinda thinking out loud.

I guess it goes back to letting the price action do the talking and not my hoping.

Here are the stats on the day:

Total Trades: 3
Winners: 1
Losers: 0
B/E: 2
Avg. Win (ticks): 6
Avg. Loss (ticks): 0
Total Ticks: 8
Total Win Rate: 33.33%

Anyway that was my last trade of the day. We moved so I've been working on finishing up that process...which is never fun.

Oh I also got my new office set-up around 11am today...what do u guys think?
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Quote from tlow:

Here is the trade:

10:13- Short 89.55 Stop 89.66 Target 89.30 then .20 then .08 then 88.94
10:15- stop to B/E
10:29- stopped out at B/E...+1 tick
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Rock solid short entry, but why did you move your stop to b/e so fast? Price went to your initial target. I covered my position @ 89.38 on the pivot, but was short earlier than you. I always wait till at least 10 ticks in my favor before moving my stop to b/e. I got tired of getting stopped out of great trades so often. Most profitable trades (besides breakouts) show some profit, then run into the red, then run back in your favor. You have to give the trade some time to work, IMHO.

Nice office, BTW :D
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Rock solid short entry, but why did you move your stop to b/e so fast? Price went to your initial target. I covered my position @ 89.38 on the pivot, but was short earlier than you. I always wait till at least 10 ticks in my favor before moving my stop to b/e. I got tired of getting stopped out of great trades so often. Most profitable trades (besides breakouts) show some profit, then run into the red, then run back in your favor. You have to give the trade some time to work, IMHO.

Nice office, BTW :D
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So here is how I thought of the trade:

Entry: Wanted to see a solid break and close of the upward trendline from the LOD...89.56-.57 was a definite area of support wanted entry just below there. Happened to be 1 tick below the previous candle low on my chart (400 tick)...had a sell stop order placed about 30 secs or so before it got to the .55 level.

move to B/E:once it made the hard push lower down to the .40 level is when I moved the stop to B/E...may have been a bit premature but most of the time if Im with the trend Im moving to B/E after 15 or so ticks AND a strong push in my favor

Price stopping at .30 level: So i figured if it broke .30 it would make another good push downward and that is what I was obviously hoping for. However, price just hovered in the .30-.33 range for a few minutes and then started back up...that was when I was thinking I should get out. I was thinking if it hits .40 and comes back I should be fine, if it hits .41 definitely time to get out... but I didn't.

At that point it was a bit of deer in headlights...ok missed the .41 exit theres another micro resistance level at .47 uhh uhhh what to do?...at this point im hoping it hits and bounces back down...Nope...now its all over but the crying.

I've come to realize I hate watching trades go against me once they gone in my favor by 20 ticks or so...it something mentally I just don't deal with well. Not sure if I just need to get over it or, like we are talking about, work on the trading knowing thats how I deal with going into the red after a good move in my favor
 
Quote from rosy2:

do you look at time of day at all for your signals?
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I guess the answer is "It depends" I don't think so much time of day, but more action of the day...ie if we are in midday and there isn't much movement I try to only look for trades off s/r and hope for a possible break out, but dont count on it.

However, some days there is tons of movement during lunch time (not often but it happens) and then Im willing to do just about any set-up.
 
Quote from tlow:

move to B/E:once it made the hard push lower down to the .40 level is when I moved the stop to B/E...may have been a bit premature but most of the time if Im with the trend Im moving to B/E after 15 or so ticks AND a strong push in my favor
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OK, sorry, misunderstanding on my part. I was confused about the timing. I didn't notice you held it down to that .30 level. I thought you moved the stop right away.

Here's a tip: Price tends to test each support level on the way back down from a potential trend reversal (price had reversed off the lows and closed above the 20 EMA on the 5-min chart). So you got in at a very confirmed entry level off a lower high (89.64 was the earlier entry on the break of the 20 EMA). You would now look for price to break the previous support levels. The next support level to be tested was 89.38. Once price broke through that, the next level was 89.28. If price holds there, then you'd want to see 89.38 become resistance. Basically that's why I took profits @ 89.38 on the pivot. Price was unable to break the minor 89.30 support and try for 89.28, so if it broke back up through 89.37, it was likely to become a higher low, which was exactly what it did.

Sometimes those retraces are nothing more than a fakeout, though, so I always stand ready to re-enter in the direction of the previous move if price pivots back through a previous bar from a lower high. I actually did that in this case, but I ended up selling a low tick @ 89.51, which made me grumpy. I hate selling a low tick or buying a high tick. When that happens I imagine myself as the formerly crafty Coyote getting snubbed by Road Runner just before he evaporates at the speed of light :p
 
Crappy day...not one winner just got caught in the chop and traded really crappy. Im going to end the week in the red which is a little annoying, however, I didn't trade very disiplined and didn't trade during full pit hours. I was late waking up every day this week.

I've noticed (especially today) I took trades that I don't think I would've taken had I been live. Also, I don't have the stats to back it up, but it seems like I trade better when my stops are in the 8-12 range and once they start creeping up toward the 15 tick range my trading is crap. It may just be in my head but it sure feels that way...thats the way today was...a couple of big 14-16 tick losers.

Being a math guy, Im also realizing my stat keeping sucks...I need to make a better spreadsheet/database with more detail.

Do you guys you a database manager or just excel? Pivot tables? Im trying to figure out the best way to do it.

So I think Im going to go back to live trading maybe towards the end of next week or the beginning of the following week. Im noticing a lack of "trying/paying attention" as well as doing things I wouldn't normally do while in SIM. Im short of my goal but I think I need to give it a go and just be smart about live trading...if get in a bad rut or my emotions start to take control again, just go back to the sim.
 
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