I went short at 1075.25... in fact, I'm all in on that short... no stop... call me suicidal, but sometimes you just know.
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Working on Consistent Profitability
- Thread starter tlow
- Start date
I went short at 1075.25... in fact, I'm all in on that short... no stop... call me suicidal, but sometimes you just know.
Quote from GatlingGun:
I went short at 1075.25... in fact, I'm all in on that short... no stop... call me suicidal, but sometimes you just know.
You Crazy! :eek:
I have 1077.00 area as major resistance from both a pivot point and fib ext area. What is your target on this trade? Did you notice the bull flag breakout on the 5min chart?
Quote from tlow:
You Crazy! :eek:
I have 1077.00 area as major resistance from both a pivot point and fib ext area. What is your target on this trade? Did you notice the bull flag breakout on the 5min chart?
There are a couple of things working against a rise above 1078.00 in my mind...
First, the 50-day SMA... the news wasn't that good. I've seen this several times before on ok news days... $SPX is going to peg against the 50-day for a while and pull back... the question of course is where...
Second, mean reversion. ES loves to revert to values within a statistical range... we are so far outside the standard deviation for daily ES averages, I can't see it closing this high for more than a day, and I *seriously* doubt ES will close above 1070 today.
Third, time... even if it manages to stay pegged to the 50-day all day and all-night long (er... not very likely) I hold it until the next bit of economic news drops it.
The strongest evidence honestly is the second point... I've only been watching ES for a year, but this is stupid high right now, compared to the daily average.
Quote from GatlingGun:
There are a couple of things working against a rise above 1078.00 in my mind...
Second, mean reversion. ES loves to revert to values within a statistical range... we are so far outside the standard deviation for daily ES averages, I can't see it closing this high for more than a day, and I *seriously* doubt ES will close above 1070 today.
I complete agree with you on this one...I just don't have the cajones to go in on this...could just be a bull trap, could be over-responding to slightly better than expected news, who knows.
There is just a lot of positive momentum right now and Im waiting for that momentum to reverse before I even think about going short.
So you are willing to hold overnight? Im not...
Quote from tlow:
I complete agree with you on this one...I just don't have the cajones to go in on this...could just be a bull trap, could be over-responding to slightly better than expected news, who knows.
There is just a lot of positive momentum right now and Im waiting for that momentum to reverse before I even think about going short.
So you are willing to hold overnight? Im not...
If it wasn't so high, I wouldn't be this confident... but I am... and like I said, I don't think I'll have to. If I'm wrong, look for the public roasting as my red eyes cry over my balance sheet ;-)
Quote from pcp198:
GatlingGun, this will sound rude but I think your full of BS, no one with any amount of trading experience is dumb enough to trade the ES without a stop.
Please don't start a pissing match in this journal...if you want to criticize him, them tell him why its poorly thoughtout and what, in your opinion, should be done to rectify the trade.
Either PM him with this crap or do this elsewhere.
Quote from pcp198:
GatlingGun, this will sound rude but I think your full of BS, no one with any amount of trading experience is dumb enough to trade the ES without a stop.
Am I full of BS, or am I making decisions you as a more experienced trader wouldn't?
BS is someone making predictions without sound basis... would you seriously say it's BS to fade a 20-point gap against the ES average on good, but not great news day?
Regardless, I value your opinion and appreciate the spirit in which you are trying to help.
Quote from GatlingGun:
Am I full of BS, or am I making decisions you as a more experienced trader wouldn't?
BS is someone making predictions without sound basis... would you seriously say it's BS to fade against a ten-minute, 20-point move above the ES average on good, but not great news day?
Regardless, I value your opinion and appreciate the spirit in which you are trying to help.
It's only BS if you don't have a stop.
Just curious where you uncle point is ?
Will you take the heat to 82-84 if they bring it ?
And no disrespect but going all in on 1 trade is not a sign of an experienced trader.
Anything can happen at any given time.
Quote from volente_00:
It's only BS if you don't have a stop.
Just curious where you uncle point is ?
Will you take the heat to 82-84 if they bring it ?
And no disrespect but going all in on 1 trade is not a sign of an experienced trader.
Anything can happen at any given time.
Who said I claim to be an experienced trader? Perhaps you're right and I'll consider that going forward...
When you say 82-84... do you mean 1082 or 1084?