Please feel free to respond to GG questions in the thread...I just don't want a whole bunch of long drawn-out questions. IE. In your opinion, what is Price Action? (that could created a 40 page thread by itself) but if it pertains to something you've responded to regarding a previous post, feel free. I am sure it can benefit myself as well.
Working on Consistent Profitability
- Thread starter tlow
- Start date
Please feel free to respond to GG questions in the thread...I just don't want a whole bunch of long drawn-out questions. IE. In your opinion, what is Price Action? (that could created a 40 page thread by itself) but if it pertains to something you've responded to regarding a previous post, feel free. I am sure it can benefit myself as well.
Hey tlow, just got finished working through all that w/ NoDoji... I'm going to write up a pdf and PM you so we can discuss... it may take a couple of days to put it together, because there were a lot of dynamics in play...
annoying day...ToS was being a PoS..ha! get it...ToS...PoS...I crack myself up. I guess they updated their software over the weekend and now nothing is working right. I couldn't even log on until about 8:30PST and even then the data feed was crap. I really wasn't able to doing anything till around 10:00PST. So I only had 1 trade today. The pros and the guys who trade a lot on a daily basis must be totally pissed. Im only mildly annoyed. At least it was a mild volume day but still I bet people are up in arms.
Trade 1:
10:29- Short 1054.00 Stop 1056.00 Target 1051.00ish.
10:57- Buy to Cover at 1055.00
-1.00 pts
So...My trade setup went like this.. ~1055.00 was 50% fib ret. from Friday's LOD to the overnight/earlymorning high, so I figured if we went below that and the current LOD the next test would be around the 61.8 level at 1051.00ish. Trade set-up wasn't bad other than there wasn't a lot of movement in the market. I was a bit hesitant (again) to pull the trigger. My fill should have been 1054.50 or at least 1054.25.
But as I was in the trade I realized that T&S wasn't keeping up with the Bid/Ask or visa versa and who knows what the chart was doing...so I was flying blind. I put a buy limit order in at 1051.00 just in case it made a big downward move, but I wasn't totally sure if it would work (the software that is). So I decided just to exit.
Trade was the right idea, i would have gotten stopped out anyway with the fat tail around 11:30. But I am missing almost 30 mins of data on the chart. It jumps from 10:52ish to 11:20 on almost everytime frame or tick#ed chart. Not good.
Any opinions on the stop? Obviously my target was pretty good, but I wouldn't have been in the trade.
FYI, the feed is still sh!t so Im not trading the rest of the day. I am thinking I am going to switch over to IB. Too bad. I really like ToS for their options trading, but since Im focusing on the Emini right now I need a reliable platfrom. Any opinions?
Trade 1:
10:29- Short 1054.00 Stop 1056.00 Target 1051.00ish.
10:57- Buy to Cover at 1055.00
-1.00 pts
So...My trade setup went like this.. ~1055.00 was 50% fib ret. from Friday's LOD to the overnight/earlymorning high, so I figured if we went below that and the current LOD the next test would be around the 61.8 level at 1051.00ish. Trade set-up wasn't bad other than there wasn't a lot of movement in the market. I was a bit hesitant (again) to pull the trigger. My fill should have been 1054.50 or at least 1054.25.
But as I was in the trade I realized that T&S wasn't keeping up with the Bid/Ask or visa versa and who knows what the chart was doing...so I was flying blind. I put a buy limit order in at 1051.00 just in case it made a big downward move, but I wasn't totally sure if it would work (the software that is). So I decided just to exit.
Trade was the right idea, i would have gotten stopped out anyway with the fat tail around 11:30. But I am missing almost 30 mins of data on the chart. It jumps from 10:52ish to 11:20 on almost everytime frame or tick#ed chart. Not good.
Any opinions on the stop? Obviously my target was pretty good, but I wouldn't have been in the trade.
FYI, the feed is still sh!t so Im not trading the rest of the day. I am thinking I am going to switch over to IB. Too bad. I really like ToS for their options trading, but since Im focusing on the Emini right now I need a reliable platfrom. Any opinions?
Little annoying the market tanked even further as I was doing my little report. Funny, I was switching back and forth and my chart and T&S froze from like 12:52-1:02. What a piece...everything was so good before they got bought out by TD. Oh well...going to research another broker/platform.
A truly survivable stop needed to be above the previous pivot high (1058.25). Your entry was less than ideal. Price was in a clear down trend, but it was a trending range, allowing predicable value entry points at the upper trend line. 1058.00 was the value short entry prior to where you entered. Because the trend was slow and in a defined channel, as opposed to very strong with shallow pullbacks, breakout plays were high risk as a result of the larger stop needed to keep you in the trend without a shakeout. In a channel-defined downtrend, I would look to enter the trend on pullbacks to the upper trend line, rather than breakouts of previous lows.
Thanks for your analysis...makes perfect sense. I think today is one of those "need more screen time" deals to understand the SLOW down (or up) trending days. I definitely agree my entry was subpar and it would've been nice to get in earlier. In hindsight, Im not sure if I was even on the computer around 10am when it was at 1058, so I may have forced this trade a bit since my platform wasn't working well (or at all).
Probably should've stayed out all together today since nothing was working.
Hi tlow,
I'm posting a summary of NoDoji's analysis of last Friday's price action... I haven't been able to get an official review yet, but I'm sure we'll get a correction if necessary.
I'm posting a summary of NoDoji's analysis of last Friday's price action... I haven't been able to get an official review yet, but I'm sure we'll get a correction if necessary.
This is so cool! I ramble on at length for about an hour and you turned it into something concrete!
Clarifications:
A - The shooting star at 9:25 is a virtual double top in relation to the 8:35 bar high (1 tick higher). Price lost momentum at 1054.50 then failed to break out, leaving a possible reversal signal at the close of the 9:25 bar. I would not look to short if price moved back up (a buy stop @ 1054.75 would be a good breakout entry point to the long side), but would place a sell stop 1 tick below the low of the 9:25 bar. This would allow price itself to activate an early counter-trend entry around 1052.25 with an initial profit target zone at previous support (1047.00) and a deeper target zone at the overnight low (1044.00).
B - The blue line is the 20-bar EMA, not a trend line. If price closes above this line after it established a stable support level at the higher low of 1047.50, a re-visit to the 1054.00 zone would be expected. A failure to close above it would leave a strong short signal. 1047.50 being the pivot low, a sell stop 1 tick below is a confirmed short entry. If you're already short from the break of the 9:25 bar, you would add to your winner there.
C - The 10:05 bar is a weak breakout that found buyers at a strong support level from Wednesday. Aggressive counter-tend long entry at a break of that bar''s high.
D - This bar makes the aggressive early longs very happy. They'll be targeting that 20-bar EMA initially. More conservative longs will wait for a close above it (which occurs at 10:20) before committing to the long side.
E - Yes, once price closes above the 20 EMA, the traders shorting from the open are either under water or about to see their profits evaporate. Many stops will be just above 1050.75 and many more above 1054.50. The 10:30 bar close will draw in new shorts as well because of so much bearish sentiment from the early sell off. Additional short sellers will join in when the 10:40 bar leaves a failed breakout through the previous bar's high.
The market has a lot of "short fuel" now. If price pulls back to the 20 EMA and finds support there, buyers will come in, driving price back up to test the 10:40 bar high and once stops begin triggering the short fuel is ignited and, in fact, this sparked almost a measured move up.
GG, we could write a book!