Working on Consistent Profitability

[Went Fishing]

Tlow
First and foremost I don't trade the ES, and I use indicators. I often say traders must find their fit, a style or method that fits their personality. PA trading fits me like a pair of assless chaps (tic bars too) it just feels like there's something missing. But I do know yesterday, you made on 1 trade (damn near) what you lost today on 3 trades, so your just 1 trade away of being back on top. You didn't plan on being C/P everyday for the next two months did you? I didn't think so. Does your platform support simulated trading? I just learned some don't, I find that fascinating!

Do you guys look at the news for the day? Do many of you play the news or wait for more obvious things to develop? i guess pure PA guys probably don't care, but I feel like I should at least know whats going on for the day.

I do absolutely, I print out this http://www.fx360.com/calendar/Index.aspx often I'll set an alarm clock for 30m prior for a heads-up and if I'm in a trade I'll get out or stay out until after the release. Know your market, prices most always reveal opportunity after a release, patience pays. Furthermore, real breaking news is another story.

I think the live trading for me is going to be about controlling emotions, getting used to psychology, and staying out of bad trades/exiting right away when I know Im in a bad trade. I am sure this is how it is for most people new to live trading consistently so I need to keep at it and be smarter and follow my notes. I cant do this, I will blow up my account in a couple of weeks if I keep this up.

You have a lot to learn, if you can sim trade do it .. do it .. do it naughow..... or not. Losing money is always difficult but it's part of the game. Getting emotional and doing reckless things trying to get it back quick has blown out many many traders.

On a positive note, my notes are saying the right things and I am doing a good job of keeping notes. So if I can work out my stupidity/emotions, I think I will start going the right way.
When I started this a couple weeks ago, here are the general rules/goals that I wrote down and always need to remember:

1.) Capital Preservation
2.) Capital Preservation
3.) Consistent Profitability

I am going to get back on the horse tomorrow. But man this sucks. I see why days like these are so hard and why its so hard to become a professional trader.

I agree, your documentation of trading sessions will reveal your strengths and weaknesses and provide direction for improvement. I think the most important thing you stated above is a couple weeks ago let's get real here, this is a professional career you're embarking on. Here's a link full of insight http://traderfeed.blogspot.com and maybe change #3 to Capital Preservation

On another note, I am using photobucket to post the images and this is the largest size they will let me use. What do you guys use to post the images? Is there a better way to post the charts or another site that will let me use larger image files?

I'll send you a link with instructions for the ET method when I get to my other computer

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[Went Fishing]

Tlow

Here's the link, I've been trying to post pics, blotters & charts here on ET for six months. I couldn't make much sense out of any of the threads I found so I went off site, searching for my lost wholeness. Finally last Friday I emailed ET support. Of course they were out of the office till Monday. After my second communicado Tuesday (today) I received this link, http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1988531&highlight=chart#post1988531


Do not preview it or you will lose your attachment

Of course I've been trying to preview every one of mine since last April



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[tlow]

Hey Guys,

Thanks for all the tips/advice. I can sim trade with this deal. However, right or wrong, I am going to give it a go with live trading for the rest of the week and see how it goes. As my old boss used to say, "its all in the recovery."

So today I am going to do my best to stick to my notes and stay mentally focused. Pretty much as all you have stated its going to be a mental and emotional challenge to get through. I am completely confident in my my ability to learn and adapt but obviously right now I need major work on the emotional side of things. Sim trading doesn't really offer me that.

Volente,
Thanks for the book. I got about 1/3 way through it last night. I can definitely relate and understand a lot of whats written in it.

and another day starts...

 

[tlow]

Trade 1:

6:55- Short 1040.50...I was pretty happy with this entry, my criticism of myself would be that I was a bit premature, I think I should have waited for the bar to close below 1041.00 before entering trade for better confirmation.
6:59- Move stop to 1041.50
7:00- Stopped out to cover at 1041.50

-1.00 pts

Now, I am pretty happy with how I managed this trade...I may have moved my stop prematurely and/or not give enough wiggles room. BUT, what I am not happy with is that I totally forgot about the housing data that was coming out at 7:00. Thanks to wentfishing, I checked the news out before the market opened then once I got near an entry point and into the trade...yup totally forgot about it. Maybe I will have to stick notes on my chart so I don't forget. I think I was so focused on doing the right things with the trade, I didn't look at the broader picture.

Trade 2:

12:32- Long 1053.25...I was really unhappy with this fill, I wanted 1052.75. I am running Think or Swim and I'm realizing they are REALLY slow to fill market orders.
12:34- Move stop to 1054.50...upper channel that it just broke out of to lock in some profits.
12:40- Sell to Close at 1055.25...Again, really unhappy with this fill, I wanted to get 1056.00 or at the least 1055.75. These bad fills cost me 0.75-1.25 points...

+2.00 pts

Im thinking I am going to have to only use stop/limit orders with ToS or I will have to switch brokers. I really like ToS for the options platform but for day trades, its just too slow. Any one have any input on using stop/limits? How do you prevent the big boys from stop cherry picking?

Overall, not a bad day. I am glad a was patient and got back into the swing of things after my bad day yesterday. My silly mistake of waiting for the news to come out definitely cost me today. But I am glad I didn't compound the error and at least managed the trade somewhat well.

I really wanted to short, per my note on the chart, in the middle of the day. I thought I better not because I didn't want to get chopped. I think as time and experience comes I will be more confident in doing this.

The next missed trade is when it broke out of the midday channel. I was really hesitant about this one because on T&S, there was just no momentum. Again, I hope with time and experience I can evaluate these situations better.

Last missed trade I was just slow to get in. I think this came from my bad day yesterday. But on a positive note, I didn't chase the trade with a bad fill. Just waited for the next trade to show up.



Total Trades: 2
Winners: 1
Losers:1
B/E:0
Avg. Win: 100.00
Avg. Loss: 50.00
Total Win: 50%
Total Profit: $50.00

 

[tlow]

Any one have any threads/journals/etc the recommend on mean reversion and/or gap filling for the ES? Since it was another gap fill day, I figure I better start looking into this more along with volente's comments.

hmmm... i guess i can search link in the upper left hand corner

 

[volente_00]

Quote from tlow:

Any one have any threads/journals/etc the recommend on mean reversion and/or gap filling for the ES? Since it was another gap fill day, I figure I better start looking into this more along with volente's comments.

hmmm... i guess i can search link in the upper left hand corner

Lots in ES journal

 

[tlow]

Today was an Uggggg day. Just seemed like I was so close to going on the right track really well, but just screwed up enough to make it a losing day.

Trade 1:

7:39- Buy 1059.75
7:40- Sell 1059.25

-0.50 pts

Within about 3 seconds of hitting the send button I realized this was a bad trade, I was too focused on the previous peak. 1060 area held a lot of resistance and I had that written down in my notes, but I just spaced out. But I was very happy I didn't stick with the trade and just bailed. A small loss no big deal, just still need some more patience and need to think things through a bit more.

Trade 2:

11:07- Short 1048.75 Really happy with my entry and the way the trade looked.I had my target set at 1043.75.
11:12- Move Stop to B/E
11:34- Move stop to 1047.50
11:39- Stopped out Buy to cover at 1047.50

+1.25 pts

This is a major Ugggg trade and coulda woulda shoulda. When it made the hard move down then started bouncing around in the 1046-1048 range from 11:15-11:40, I just started getting really anxious, I really wanted to lock in profits, but I also new it was stuck in that channel and if it broke down, it would break down pretty hard. I had my target set and had done everything right with this trade but I cut my gains super short because of the I moved the stop. In Hindsight, I wish I left the stop at B/E and ride the trade out since there was no positive momentum.

At 11:48, I didn't really know what to do. It broke down out of the channel and I wanted to short, but I was hesistant and scared. oh well, I guess making no trade is better than making an emotional trade.

Trade 3:

12:35- Long 1048.50
12:36- Stopped out to sell at 1047.50

-1.00 pts

Ugggg...Stop was WAY too tight, this was a bit of an advanced trade for me, but I thought the signals were there so go for it. Again in hindsight, I may not be ready for this trade since I had the stops so tight, I didn't want the trade to go hard against me.

Trade 4:

12:40- Long 1049.50
12:53- Stopped out to sell at 1047.50

-2.00 pts

Uggg again, I had the same signals as the last trade so I decided to stick with it. But, I had written down I needed to exit as soon as momentum gave up or price started turning the other way, which would have been around 1050.50-1051.00. I got greedy and wanted to make up for my last failed trade so I stayed with it. I kept thinking about how I would be up about 2.5-3 points if I was still in trade 3. Turned a small winner into a loser because of greed and trying to make up for the previous trade. Big No No. I'm a bit up in the air as to whether or not I should have been in this trade in the first place, but regardless in the end I made a bad choice because of greed.

Man, it is amazing how trading exploits your mistakes and weaknesses. Even though today was a bit frustrating I really didn't feel that bad at the end of the day. I don't know if its because my mistakes are smaller or maybe because I know my signals are right and I just need better follow through or what. I really am having a good time learning, even though it is frustrating at times. I have learned more in the past 3 weeks trading with real money than I did in 3 months on the SIM. Trading really is about minimizing mistakes

Total Trades: 4
Winners: 1
Losers:3
B/E:0
Total Points: -2.25
Avg. Win: 112.50
Avg. Loss: 58.33
Total Win: 25%
Total Loss: $112.50

 

[volente_00]

Quote from tlow:

Today was an Uggggg day. Just seemed like I was so close to going on the right track really well, but just screwed up enough to make it a losing day.

Trade 1:

7:39- Buy 1059.75
7:40- Sell 1059.25

-0.50 pts

Within about 3 seconds of hitting the send button I realized this was a bad trade, I was too focused on the previous peak. 1060 area held a lot of resistance and I had that written down in my notes, but I just spaced out. But I was very happy I didn't stick with the trade and just bailed. A small loss no big deal, just still need some more patience and need to think things through a bit more.

Trade 2:

11:07- Short 1048.75 Really happy with my entry and the way the trade looked.I had my target set at 1043.75.
11:12- Move Stop to B/E
11:34- Move stop to 1047.50
11:39- Stopped out Buy to cover at 1047.50

+1.25 pts

This is a major Ugggg trade and coulda woulda shoulda. When it made the hard move down then started bouncing around in the 1046-1048 range from 11:15-11:40, I just started getting really anxious, I really wanted to lock in profits, but I also new it was stuck in that channel and if it broke down, it would break down pretty hard. I had my target set and had done everything right with this trade but I cut my gains super short because of the I moved the stop. In Hindsight, I wish I left the stop at B/E and ride the trade out since there was no positive momentum.

At 11:48, I didn't really know what to do. It broke down out of the channel and I wanted to short, but I was hesistant and scared. oh well, I guess making no trade is better than making an emotional trade.

Trade 3:

12:35- Long 1048.50
12:36- Stopped out to sell at 1047.50

-1.00 pts

Ugggg...Stop was WAY too tight, this was a bit of an advanced trade for me, but I thought the signals were there so go for it. Again in hindsight, I may not be ready for this trade since I had the stops so tight, I didn't want the trade to go hard against me.

Trade 4:

12:40- Long 1049.50
12:53- Stopped out to sell at 1047.50

-2.00 pts

Uggg again, I had the same signals as the last trade so I decided to stick with it. But, I had written down I needed to exit as soon as momentum gave up or price started turning the other way, which would have been around 1050.50-1051.00. I got greedy and wanted to make up for my last failed trade so I stayed with it. I kept thinking about how I would be up about 2.5-3 points if I was still in trade 3. Turned a small winner into a loser because of greed and trying to make up for the previous trade. Big No No. I'm a bit up in the air as to whether or not I should have been in this trade in the first place, but regardless in the end I made a bad choice because of greed.

Man, it is amazing how trading exploits your mistakes and weaknesses. Even though today was a bit frustrating I really didn't feel that bad at the end of the day. I don't know if its because my mistakes are smaller or maybe because I know my signals are right and I just need better follow through or what. I really am having a good time learning, even though it is frustrating at times. I have learned more in the past 3 weeks trading with real money than I did in 3 months on the SIM. Trading really is about minimizing mistakes

Total Trades: 4
Winners: 1
Losers:3
B/E:0
Total Points: -2.25
Avg. Win: 112.50
Avg. Loss: 58.33
Total Win: 25%
Total Loss: $112.50

Trade #1 would not have happened if you followed my gap rule.

Using previous cash close ES fair value was ~53.5.

You went long above a 6 point gap and nothing but air below to 53.5

 

[NoDoji]

Do analysis every day and track the results of leaving your initial stop in place vs. moving it to b/e after a specific number of pts, vs. whatever you actually did on your trades.

In my post-market analysis I always find that leaving my initial stops and targets in place no matter what the price does in between produces about 30%-40% more profit, but ONLY if I trade all setups that fit my criteria. Because I've been incapable of reaching that goal so far, I do move stops to b/e based on certain rules, and many times get stopped out of a good trade and sometimes I don't re-enter, so there's usually a cost when micromanaging trades instead of letting the pre-trade plan play out.

Good luck to you!

 

[Went Fishing]

Quote from volente_00:

Trade #1 would not have happened if you followed my gap rule.

Using previous cash close ES fair value was ~53.5.

You went long above a 6 point gap and nothing but air below to 53.5

I have lots of questions about this method of trading, the first being what gap? How do I identify "the gap" in a 24hr market? Wouldn't a trader just consider the overnight price action a continuation of a 5 day string of price bars? I'm assuming we're NOT talking about the globex "reset."

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