Working on Consistent Profitability

Quote from bigsnack:

Another cool thing that I noticed by looking at your charts Tlow is that by watching how many ticks are created per 15 minute time frame, you can get a pretty terrific idea of where the high volume price points are and whether the high volume is coming in on moves up or moves down. I had long ago removed the grid from my chart, but now that I see it can actually have a useful application, I may dabble with turning it on and seeing if it furthers my edge. You learn something new every day, thanks!
More...

Do you use a momentum indicator or anything of the sort? I like the grid format cuz like you said, you can see volume and momentum

On your higher time frame charts, the resistance levels on the uptrend have been funny...There are plenty of places to draw resistance and it seems we keep blasting through them.
 
Quote from tlow:

Do you use a momentum indicator or anything of the sort? I like the grid format cuz like you said, you can see volume and momentum

On your higher time frame charts, the resistance levels on the uptrend have been funny...There are plenty of places to draw resistance and it seems we keep blasting through them.
More...

Tlow,

I only use the TICK, and I have occasionally looked at cumulative delta. I actually find that delta can be useful, but I usually don't pull it up because TOS doesn't have it and I don't like the clutter of having multiple platforms open (Ninjatrader). Now that you have turned the "duh" switch in my head off and I can just use the grid to see volume momentum, I will mostly likely try to adapt to just using TOS at all times. I agree that we keep blasting through resistance. BUT, if you can identify solid resistance on a longer time frame chart, you can also wait for that level to break and make a case for then buying it as support when it breaks.

So in this case it would be:

1. ID resistance on daily chart
2. When daily resistance is tested, look to see if resistance is still flipping to support on the 4H chart.
3. If after testing daily resistance, we have a support fail on the 4H chart, then wait for that level to be retested as resistance.
4. Once that level is retested, look to the 512 tick chart and look for a micro support to flip and turn to resistance, confirm with the TICK and get in.
5. If we test daily resistance, but support still holds on the 4H chart, then we can't anticipate a meltdown selloff. We ccould trade countertrend short into support, but at that point wait for a micro resistance to flip to support and then buy.

That's how I use multiple timeframe charts. I don't refer to the daily chart too often. I usually only look at it in hindsight after a S / R flip on the 4H chart to see why the trend could be changing. So on the 4H chart we have resistance above us at 1179.75's (give or take),and support below us at around the 1174's. Those will be areas I will take a peek at in the morning to see where we are at in relationship to them.
 
Quote from bigsnack:

Tlow,

I only use the TICK, and I have occasionally looked at cumulative delta. I actually find that delta can be useful, but I usually don't pull it up because TOS doesn't have it and I don't like the clutter of having multiple platforms open (Ninjatrader). Now that you have turned the "duh" switch in my head off and I can just use the grid to see volume momentum, I will mostly likely try to adapt to just using TOS at all times. I agree that we keep blasting through resistance. BUT, if you can identify solid resistance on a longer time frame chart, you can also wait for that level to break and make a case for then buying it as support when it breaks.

So in this case it would be:

1. ID resistance on daily chart
2. When daily resistance is tested, look to see if resistance is still flipping to support on the 4H chart.
3. If after testing daily resistance, we have a support fail on the 4H chart, then wait for that level to be retested as resistance.
4. Once that level is retested, look to the 512 tick chart and look for a micro support to flip and turn to resistance, confirm with the TICK and get in.
5. If we test daily resistance, but support still holds on the 4H chart, then we can't anticipate a meltdown selloff. We ccould trade countertrend short into support, but at that point wait for a micro resistance to flip to support and then buy.

That's how I use multiple timeframe charts. I don't refer to the daily chart too often. I usually only look at it in hindsight after a S / R flip on the 4H chart to see why the trend could be changing. So on the 4H chart we have resistance above us at 1179.75's (give or take),and support below us at around the 1174's. Those will be areas I will take a peek at in the morning to see where we are at in relationship to them.
More...

How important are the Macro Trends to you guys? It just seems not all that important given that Im in trades usually less than an hour. Don't get me wrong, I like to have an idea/framework of what is going on, but it doesn't seem like a huge problem to get it right/wrong since the hold times of the trades are so short.
 
Tlow,

I find the macro trend important if only in the sense that it gives me a good idea of where to look for my smaller time frame setups. Today is a great example. When we started trading below 1174's this morning, I sold into every micro support that flipped into resistance until finally we broke down after 8 PST. If we had broken solidly above the 1180's area this morning, or if 1174's had been tested and held, I would have been taking every instance of micro resistance flipping to support. The longer time frame can give a good context for the trades you take, even though we are entering and managing on the micro time frame.
 
Chart included...
1495916fuu72qjm.png
 
Ya I see what you are saying...I made a mistake on exactly what we are talking about this morning...

I went long at 1175.25 around 7:45 this morning...was surprised this trade didn't work out or move at least a bit in my direction, but what I failed to realize (correct me if Im wrong), that since it didn't breakout that the bears are probably in control and we will head lower. I was a bit torn/confused with the morning ups/downs/chop. The overall trend was down but it was a bit bouncy.

Anyway, I didn't realize this until after I tried to go long again off the support at the bottom of the channel around 1170.ish...obviously that trade didn't work out either, had I realized what was going on earlier, I think I would've stayed out of that trade or been on the other end of it going short on the break lower.

So...going forward today, from what I can see, there is longer term support at 1165.00 level. I would foresee that we bounce around a bit at these levels and if its going to head lower than 1165.00 its going to need some pretty good push downward.

Thoughts?
 
Quote from tlow:


So...going forward today, from what I can see, there is longer term support at 1165.00 level. I would foresee that we bounce around a bit at these levels and if its going to head lower than 1165.00 its going to need some pretty good push downward.

Thoughts?
More...

I completely agree! I think this area of support is a bit vague (for me), between 65's and 63.50's, but it's there on the 4H, and I'm with you. Sorry to hear the longs didn't work out. The only long I considered was at 7:10 when the double bottom had formed and we had a micro resistance turn to support. Aside from that it was just waiting for a chance to sell.

EDIT: And now you have a context and potentially a better reasoning for why we are bouncing at those levels. :)
 
Quote from tlow:

I went long at 1175.25 around 7:45 this morning...was surprised this trade didn't work out or move at least a bit in my direction, but what I failed to realize (correct me if Im wrong), that since it didn't breakout that the bears are probably in control and we will head lower. I was a bit torn/confused with the morning ups/downs/chop. The overall trend was down but it was a bit bouncy.
More...

The macro trend can be helpful for understanding the intraday moves. After a failed breakout on 9/30 we finally broke out for real last week. Breakouts in ES usually run to the next S/R pivot level before pulling back. So that places 1192 in sight, with 1181 recent R as a potential exhaustion level if price fails to break further and test 1192. A failure to break further would be a short signal for counter-trend swing traders and day traders. Swing traders will be looking for a pullback to 1152-1146 and a potential trend reversal if price breaks down there. Day traders will be looking for a pullback to test the previous support zone around 1165.

So as a day trader, you see that the 1181 level held as resistance overnight, price tried again and was pushed down on the econ news. I'd be leaning toward looking for a short signal. After the news, price tries to regain ground on very low volume. By the close of the 8:40am ET bar, the first short signal is in by way of a lower high and 3 bars in a row closing beneath the 20-bar MA.

Later after a rebound and a sell off to a lower low, price rebounds again, and tries to break through 1174.75 resistance twice and fails, then comes in again for a 3rd try. If you plan to buy the breakout @ 1175.00, you should consider that the volume on this rebound has been declining, so if the breakout has no follow through, it's very likely going to be a failed breakout reversal signal and you could just stop and reverse to short.
 
Hey guys,

sorry i haven't had time to put up my summary for the day. Super busy since after the market closed and still doing some stuff. Anyway, I will get it out tomorrow, not sure if Im trading tomorrow as I have "life" things to do.

But quickly, I got owned by the market today. Im definitely chalking today up to the whole "paying tuition" to the markets. Not terribly upset with myself..actually I kinda feel like I have the past couple days, which is it felt rather unexciting...maybe b/c I was trying to analyze what I was going wrong or what I was missing. Anyway, I've learned something and probably still need to learn a lot more about days like today. Wound up down 5 pts...but will give you the full deal tomorrow morning.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top