LOL
6 out of 150 trading days ?
So my simple rule is wrong 4% of the time.
I'm sure you can show me lots after the fact.
Working on Consistent Profitability
- Thread starter tlow
- Start date
LOL
6 out of 150 trading days ?
So my simple rule is wrong 4% of the time.
I'm sure you can show me lots after the fact.
Nothing wrong with going all in as long as you have a stop that fits your risk management.
But even then sometimes things are out of your hands.
Quote from tlow:
Blotto,
Ya I would love for you to take a look and mark up my charts...and yes, I am trading for real. Becoming profitable on paper...ya been down that route as I explained somewhere earlier...Ive tried somewhat hard to take paper trading seriously but I don't. Plus, I dont get all tied up in the emotions of trading while its on paper.
I've always been a lets get onto the real thing type person, whether its single water ski, surfing, job, chess, riding a bike, whatever. I take the learning much more serious when I do it for real.
Best analogy I can give for me is when I was learning how to surf...when the waves were 10ft+, my ability is at about 5 feet, and I know I shouldnt be out there because I will get my head crushed...went out anyway...learned real fast...but did take some major ones on the head
I know I am making mistakes and I know, probably most, of my entries/exits aren't good, but I need to learn for real. Plus I am enjoying the ride anyway...not getting off till I start doing stupid stuff that I don't correct
What Blotto is trying to say is you can do a lot of damage psychologically to yourself by trading live before you are ready.
It will be hard to unlearn these bad habits.
Sorry in advance for the large number of questions, but I'm not sure how to implement this rule...
What do you mean by cash? The futures, or the actual index / equity itself? Can you provide a concrete example using ES at some value and $SPX at another?
Cash is SPX.
Cash closed at 80.29
So ~ 79 ES
I don't follow gaps on es because the premium changes as it moves towards expiration.
Cash stays constant.
Some stats from 09
http://prismintraday.com/readings/Disciplined_Trader.pdf
Sim is good for testing strategies and risk managment and getting familar with the platfrom.
It is a great tool for development of edge.
If your system is not profitable in sim first, then going live with itwill cause you to battle some serious emotional demons within.
I think I've got it now...
Yesterday:
ESU10 closed at 1079.25
$SPX closed at 1080.29
Let's suppose the mkt opened today with $SPX at 1082.00... your rule would say don't go long here because the gap is already higher than yesterday's close... simply don't go long with yesterday's $SPX close below the $SPX open today (presumably due to the risk of a gap fade at the open). I assume that would also work in similar manner for short positions...
Is that a correct implementation of your rule?
From Trading in the Zone:
by Mark Douglas
A probabilistic mind-set pertaining to trading consists of five fundamental truths.
1 Anything can happen
2 You donât need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
3 There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
4 An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
5 Every moment in the market is unique.
<*)))><
by Mark Douglas
A probabilistic mind-set pertaining to trading consists of five fundamental truths.
1 Anything can happen
2 You donât need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
3 There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
4 An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
5 Every moment in the market is unique.
<*)))><