Wondering what is wrong or not good enough?

[murray t turtle]

Quote from zoli:

Dear Experienced Trader


I am writing this because I am confused and I think I am missing some point here.



I survived the beginning with all the B****t from the FX industry (robots, system, scam).
I have been learning to trade for 3 years. I am slow. I traded so far FX and metals. I made only 3% last year and this year I am up 6%. I am not undercapitalized for trading (ca. 50000 USD). I have never blown up any account; I have never had a drawdown more than 15% even on the micro account at the beginning.

I am an avid reader and I like to find logic. I studied Wyckoff, Jesse Livermore (love him), I never had any mentor apart from these. I am aware of the potential effect of a good rising EPS, plus small amount of loans plus increasing Stockholder equity plus increasing return on equity. Everything seems to be reasonable to me, yet I am missing it.
I find PA and Volume important...

All the above men did focus on the moves happened through several days, weeks, months. I thought it is the way. But do I need to leave a loose SL for that? It is impossible for me to trade without SL protection.

Nevertheless, I think, lately, that in and out trading is no good for me. It is perfect for the brokers for sure. I just lost money when I was trying hard to get in. Also missed many moves when too I was cautious. The first “real” (small) profit I made was on EURUSD, when I had a trade for a month opened.

The really good trades are very, very rare for me...

I made a “super” trade when I saw a crazy volume on FXJ. The volume was crazy. I got the principle of Volume in mind. I did go on it right away. My size was a joke. So was the profit. 2 days later Japan came out with QE by the way.

I saw how silver and gold reacted after a strongly bullish USD data. The next day bar was a really nice entry opportunity. I missed it in the sea of hesitation.

I often forgot to take profit as I had in mind that the market should go more to make it worth. So the small losses (always small) and BE trades slowly eat up my profits. That is why I underperform so badly.

So I am missing here something. I am sure I do miss it. What...?

I appreciate and am looking forward to your comments

Kind Regards and all the best with your trades

Zoli

=======
Mr Zoli;
Well, congratulations on some profits, i prefer those to losses[even those losses are a business exspence ]

Sounds like you neeed some more years/experience ;
being ''slow'' is not really a handicap, as long as your plan takes advantage of your turtle speed.


Speaking of EPS, debt, FX, silver & gold;

i cant help you with FX, so i will not try that I focus on a few; that way one daily candle in silver, SLV, usually doesnt mean much.

Again, congradulations on ''always small losses'' I certainly would have prefered that, while learning to trade.Most traders/investors had large/larger losses & drawdowns of more that 15%. But larger losses on monthly moves, weekly moves;
eventually worked well, because of profitable trends

 

[zoli]

Quote from murray t turtle:

=======
Mr Zoli;
Well, congratulations on some profits, i prefer those to losses[even those losses are a business exspence ]

Sounds like you neeed some more years/experience ;
being ''slow'' is not really a handicap, as long as your plan takes advantage of you turtle speed.

Speaking of EPS, debt, FX, silver & gold;

i cant help you with FX, so i wil not try that I focus on a few; that way one daily candle in silver, SLV, usually doesnt mean much.

Thanks for your comments. It is true, for a longer TF trading an aggregate of price bars is a valid data. It is allways an aggregate of the lower TF bars anyway. I like very much to use tha cash+futures+etf combined!
So you trade swing or position? Would you kindly direct me to a thread where people discuss seriously swing and position trading of anything?

Z (Zoli is first name, fine with no Mr)

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from murray t turtle:

=======
Zoli;


Speaking of EPS, debt, FX, silver & gold;

i cant help you with FX, so i will not try that I focus on a few; that way one daily candle in silver, SLV, usually doesnt mean much.

Again, congradulations on ''always small losses'' I certainly would have prefered that, while learning to trade.Most traders/investors had large/larger losses & drawdowns of more that 15%. But larger losses on monthly moves, weekly moves;
eventually worked well, because of profitable trends

===========
Zoli asks ''swing or position trade & swing/position websites?''.

Yes on swing/position trades/investments.Some are doing that here,[stocks, derivatives, metals...] I cant really speak on FX trades, myself.

Books listed on this website[see top green line ]may help.
As far as 500 daily candles[or bars], it may be difficult, but i want to test that, for sure .

500 weeks or 500 months[of data if applicable] can be even more helpful, not just because its easier to read/study & with less comissions/slippage.

500 weeks[10 year+/]most likely includes a bull & bear market. Thats wisdom .
Congrats again on small losses & 15% drawdowns-most trading educations are much more exspensive, in time & money. Not a prediction.

 

[karoshiman]

Quote from zoli:

I do not know that book but the message is there all right. I rather believe in trading methodology as oppose to system. Sure, applying the method SYSTEMATICALLY is a must and I thank you that you highlighted this. I believe that I have a method, but as you think I do not have, I might as well be deluted and fooling myself.

I trade as follows:

I want to identify the background of price direction. I do not meant at all, that I want to know the WHY. I just want to see it is happening. That the price is going up is not enough to me because the price does that and other things all the time.

For stocks I want to see a relatively strong fundamental background, improving earnings, small debt, profit margin, return on equity. If I have these, I am interested in general. I can not just simply enter at the market though.
For futures I have a look at the COT. For currencies as well, so Iknow at least that the big money is acting heavily at that level. Not good enough for a trigger either, but good to start to focus.
For everything, in general, I check the Volume and Price action at important levels. I want to see that others are heavily involved in buying or selling.

Than I check the price action of the instrument for a reasonable entry. I like pin bars, reversal bars appearing at S/R levels. Than I like to short on the break of a low Volume up bar and long on a break of a low Volume down bar. Or an aggregate of low Volume bars at a level. One bar is also just an aggregate of many bars ona lower TF after all.
Basically I llok for Wyckoff and VSA principles.

I also get interested if an unusually heavy Volume appears.

Just in a nutshell. This thread is not about my methods though.

Now, I may not get it correctly what it means to have a valid system verified by me. I tried many things and I believe that nearly every method or system works at times and does not at others. Like the system of Williams. It made him a lot of money, but sure there are falls signals too. That is when I would exit and wait more. Admit that I was wrong. I admit that quickly if the move does not come.

Does this still sound that I do not have method?

Yes, it still does sound that you don't have a method. Your descriptions sound like you try to be a jack of all trades. You do a little bit of this, a little bit of that, check this... and this also... fundamentals, technicals, etc. ... does not sound like a clear methodology which you can reproduce in the same quality every time.

Also, you trade many different instruments. Usually, one should try to focus on one first (or only very few) instruments and try to get perfect at trading them, before trying something new.

Try to focus and keep things simple. Focus on one instrument and one distinct method with clear rules.

On the other hand, your performance is much better than that of the "normal" beginner. You did not win much but you did not lose much either. So, that's definitely a plus.

The advice given here so far to you is good and should be of help.

 

[zoli]

Quote from karoshiman:

Yes, it still does sound that you don't have a method. Your descriptions sound like you try to be a jack of all trades. You do a little bit of this, a little bit of that, check this... and this also... fundamentals, technicals, etc. ... does not sound like a clear methodology which you can reproduce in the same quality every time.

Also, you trade many different instruments. Usually, one should try to focus on one first (or only very few) instruments and try to get perfect at trading them, before trying something new.

Try to focus and keep things simple. Focus on one instrument and one distinct method with clear rules.

On the other hand, your performance is much better than that of the "normal" beginner. You did not win much but you did not lose much either. So, that's definitely a plus.

The advice given here so far to you is good and should be of help.

Hmm. Yet another valuable viewpoint. Thank you. That is why I started this thread, to have people put a mirror to my face.
Anyway, yes, you are right. I read a lot and I think a lot, even too much. You guys are all very helpful.

Funny, the frustrating is really that I know I can do this and I will. Only at the past months I identified several opportunities and acted on few of them. I made money but far less that the potental. And that all because of the mess you pointed out. Some of it is the lack of experience but I do not go for excuses here; I do not care about excuses-they are pointless.

What I find the most important from your comment that to me is this:
"....which you can reproduce in the same quality every time."

So my job is to clean up and create a pure way. My way. First it sounds funny and easy. Than I remember how many good traders mentioned that they were working on there method for many years.
Well, I have many years too. In fact, I have some good lifetime to do it.

In fact, the challange is the information overload.

Off to work...

Z

 

[karoshiman]

Quote from zoli:

...

In fact, the challange is the information overload.

So true.

It's definitely important that you find your own method, one that fits to your personality. Maybe the method you develop is more complex (but still reproducible!) and maybe such development of a more complex method just takes more time.

Anyway, you seem to be very motivated and willing to put in the work. I am sure that you will arrive at your destination!

Wish you all the best for your journey!

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from zoli:

Thanks for your comments. It is true, for a longer TF trading an aggregate of price bars is a valid data. It is allways an aggregate of the lower TF bars anyway. I like very much to use tha cash+futures+etf combined!
So you trade swing or position? Would you kindly direct me to a thread where people discuss seriously swing and position trading of anything?

Z (Zoli is first name, fine with no Mr)

==================
Zoli;
There is probably 500 things you could do to improve profit or make a good profit.{break even is actually loss; computers, power bill ,paper charts, commissions none of that is free, generally speaking].

For example,stocks,4X, futures,ETFs;
which on do you do the worst on?? 4X, then cut out trading 4X...............If you dont know, you neeed to know from your brokers statements/your records.

Wisdom is profitable to direct

 

[zoli]

Quote from murray t turtle:

==================
Zoli;
There is probably 500 things you could do to improve profit or make a good profit.{break even is actually loss; computers, power bill ,paper charts, commissions none of that is free, generally speaking].

For example,stocks,4X, futures,ETFs;
which on do you do the worst on?? 4X, then cut out trading 4X...............If you dont know, you neeed to know from your brokers statements/your records.

Wisdom is profitable to direct

Yes, true for sure Murray.

My girlfriend knows little about trading, only that he gets sick and wants to go to toilet when I tell her that I have am in the market and I can loose 2-3000 easily. And that is not even hugh money, yet it is close 6 times more someone makes a month in my coutry.

So with her little knowledge she said: "paitence Zoli!"

And actually FX is not running wirst than an other. And I will get this.
Will be really cool.
My uncle likes to gamble so even gave me a little money to trade with. I warned him that I do not want because I can loose it all! He said fine, he wants it anyway because he likes adventures.
Good man. He hates any banks and investment firms actually. They are idiots, as he states.

They lost him 60&. Well to do that, I do not need CFA or finance diplom.

Happy trading.

Z

 

[illiquid]

The OP is in a tough spot given his time frame and capital if he wants to make a living trading. Swing trading with this amount just doesn't offer enough opportunities in a year to reach critical mass wherein one can comfortably rely and withdraw enough money to live on, all the while being able to sidestep the occasional but always looming fat tail event. Even if you could string together a few good years, say doubling your account each year, you are still exposing yourself to changes in market conditions which would have alot more impact on a swing trader vs a daytrader. I would be alot more confident in his chances if he was trading intraday, using 4-1, and making a consistent say 500-1k a day.

It all boils down to frequency of betting while you have your edge. Getting paid daily (meaning consistent winning sessions) is one of the crucial elements for surviving and growing as an independent trader. Sure if you can figure something out on a longer time frame, manage to scrape together 7-8 figures of outside money, you can bypass the growing pains of going it alone. But if that's not possible, you may need to rethink your time frame and markets, to that which gives you much greater frequency of positive reinforcement both numerically and mentally.

All of the above applies to any developing trader in determining how/where he decides to go digging for an edge, don't disadvantage yourself from the outset by choosing a game where you can play very well and still have a good chance to fail.

 

[zoli]

Quote from illiquid:

It all boils down to frequency of betting while you have your edge. Getting paid daily (meaning consistent winning sessions) is one of the crucial elements for surviving and growing as an independent trader. Sure if you can figure something out on a longer time frame, manage to scrape together 7-8 figures of outside money, you can bypass the growing pains of going it alone. But if that's not possible, you may need to rethink your time frame and markets, to that which gives you much greater frequency of positive reinforcement both numerically and mentally.

All of the above applies to any developing trader in determining how/where he decides to go digging for an edge, don't disadvantage yourself from the outset by choosing a game where you can play very well and still have a good chance to fail. [/B]

Thanks illiquid

Good thoughts. I think it is very important to the mental state to have profits coming. I will keep this in mind.
I actually started to apply some of the advices given so far. I really see that although I am able to find patterns with potential, and able to find it often enough, I need to change.
I made mone on nzdusd and I specifically took profit as oppose to put it to BE and let it go to oblivion. That is highly unlikely. And many suggested already how important it is to simply bild that account. Catching a home run can wait, more important to get payed.

I see it now. And when I mean "swing" trades, I rather mean being in the trade for more than a day. The longer, the closer to what I want. I also have a job at this stage - I dont plan a long journey with it - so money is not an issue of survival, getting successful by time is.

So I will do and I will do as suggested from many of you.

Good trading.