Won $700 with Micro S&P futures!

[farmerjohn1324]

This is what can happen when the SP ranges 400 ticks (100 points) in a day since midnight.
Did you see RB today? Almost 2000 tick range. That's 8 grand on a single contract. Heady stuff.

Part of me wants to buy a bunch of oil futures and just hold them for as long as it takes for the prices to rise.

 

[Overnight]

Part of me wants to buy a bunch of oil futures and just hold them for as long as it takes for the prices to rise.

And what about the other part of you that saw the 650-tick range of it today, at $10 per tick and like $5K margin per contract? (That's the angel on your other shoulder saying NO).

 

[Amahrix]

I bought MESM20 this morning at 2484.50. Using the results of my statistical analysis, I placed TP at 2502, and SL at 2410.

I got real worried after that big dip from the jobless numbers. It got as low as 2428. I would have lost $2,980 if it hit SL. I thought maybe I shouldn't use this strategy in a known bear market like we're in.

But then it went back up and hit my TP.

Now only bad thing is that I'm also in SPXS, so these two trades work opposite of each other.

So I made $700 in just over 3 hours!!!

Appears like luck had a disproportionate role in your final outcome

Nevertheless, do it 2,000 times and if you’re still alive then the hypothesis that it’s mainly luck will look less credible

Until then, good luck

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Appears like luck had a disproportionate role in your final outcome

Nevertheless, do it 2,000 times and if you’re still alive then the hypothesis that it’s mainly luck will look less credible

Until then, good luck

How can you assume it's just luck if I based it on 20 years of daily data?

I won the trade twice today btw, and am 11.25 points away from hopefully winning it a third.

Plus I'm also doing the same trade simultaneously on a paper trading account. So far 3 wins and 1 loss, and 10.25 points away from hopefully another win.

So total 5-1. Which is enough for it to be profitable. Hopefully soon 7-1. But I do know it's a small sample size aside from the back testing.

But yes I do know it needs to stand the test of time. Perhaps I can look at the data to see if there's any similarities in the days it lost.

 

[Amahrix]

How can you assume it's just luck

I never once assumed it was “just” luck. Twice you’ve responded to me and both times you have committed a comprehension mistake. Some call it a straw man.

I say luck had disproportionate role
You interpreted it as if I said “it was all luck”

Those are two diff things.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

I never once assumed it was “just” luck. Twice you’ve responded to me and both times you have committed a comprehension mistake. Some call it a straw man.

I say luck had disproportionate role
You interpreted it as if I said “it was all luck”

Those are two diff things.

How do you know any of it was luck? Considering that my strategy assumes I will lose sometimes.

 

[Cuddles]

How do you know any of it was luck? Considering that my strategy assumes I will lose sometimes.

sample size is too small. Do it 100x's and if you've got 51% winning trades, you'll be onto something....though it looks like your hedge would unlikely allow 49% losers.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

sample size is too small. Do it 100x's and if you've got 51% winning trades, you'll be onto something....though it looks like your hedge would unlikely allow 49% losers.

I need to hit TP about 80% of the time to break even.