Won $700 with Micro S&P futures!

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farmerjohn1324

I bought MESM20 this morning at 2484.50. Using the results of my statistical analysis, I placed TP at 2502, and SL at 2410.

I got real worried after that big dip from the jobless numbers. It got as low as 2428. I would have lost $2,980 if it hit SL. I thought maybe I shouldn't use this strategy in a known bear market like we're in.

But then it went back up and hit my TP.

Now only bad thing is that I'm also in SPXS, so these two trades work opposite of each other.

So I made $700 in just over 3 hours!!!
 
Fx-Game said:
700 vs. 2980, this is quite a bad risk ratio...
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I did lots of statistical analysis that showed I would win over time.

Do you notice that the TP is a lot closer than the SL?

In fact, the TP is 0.7%, the SL at 3%. If you so the SL is ~4.29x as far. Multiply $700 by that, you get $3000. $3000 is obviously higher than $2980.

And that doesn't even account for the fact that S&P always slopes up over time.
 
farmerjohn1324 said:
I did lots of statistical analysis that showed I would win over time.

Do you notice that the TP is a lot closer than the SL?

In fact, the TP is 0.7%, the SL at 3%. If you so the SL is ~4.29x as far. Multiply $700 by that, you get $3000. $3000 is obviously higher than $2980.

And that doesn't even account for the fact that S&P always slopes up over time.
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We're in the business to earn over time.
To profit more than we do lose, absolute wise.

It's no magic to win often when TP is closer than SL by a factor of 4.
You should win in average 8 times out of 10 with such a trade configuration.
Now the goal is to grind the tiny edge that comes from winning more than implied.
 
Sekiyo said:
We're in the business to earn over time.
To profit more than we do lose, absolute wise.

It's no magic to win often when TP is closer than SL by a factor of 4.
You should win in average 8 times out of 10 with such a trade configuration.
Now the goal is to grind the tiny edge that comes from winning more than implied.
More...

Lots of analysis went into picking the TP (+0.7%) and SL (-3%).

Yes, I would need to win 77% of the time. Historically, I would win 95% of the time at those limits. But this does get messed up some because I'm only able to see limits at 0.25 intervals.
 
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