Wizard of Wall Street Oct-Nov Edition

[eagle488]

Looks like all I got was insulting words and excuses. I gave you a choice of

a. insulting words and excuses

or

b. stock picks for 2 months of appreciation

It is disappointing that you would choose choice A, the low road.

How about posting a real strategy and picks so we can see how you can make us some cash? I dont think that request is unreasonable. Im simply asking you for 5 stocks. There are well over 15000 publicly traded companies some of which cant be posted up here, but still plenty to choose.

You gave me an excuse that "any idiot could have made money in this time period." This excuse is invalid as there are quite a few stocks that have gone down in this time period.

If your brain is as big as your mouth, then you will show us all the way through this market good or bad, no excuses.

If your as good as you say, then you will show me the way through the market for the next 2 months. Thats 60 calendar days. Can you do it?

Dont answer that, you have already answered my question by implying "no".

Quote from vhehn:

give me a break. the market has gone straight up. any idiot could have made money in this timeperiod. thats why i said long term. i have been around these boards 7 years. i have seen a lot of guys like you come and go. we will see.

 

[Free Thinker]

Quote from eagle488:

Looks like all I got was insulting words and excuses. I gave you a choice of

a. insulting words and excuses

or

b. stock picks for 2 months of appreciation

It is disappointing that you would choose choice A, the low road.

How about posting a real strategy and picks so we can see how you can make us some cash? I dont think that request is unreasonable. Im simply asking you for 5 stocks. There are well over 15000 publicly traded companies some of which cant be posted up here, but still plenty to choose.

You gave me an excuse that "any idiot could have made money in this time period." This excuse is invalid as there are quite a few stocks that have gone down in this time period.

If your brain is as big as your mouth, then you will show us all the way through this market good or bad, no excuses.

If your as good as you say, then you will show me the way through the market for the next 2 months. Thats 60 calendar days. Can you do it?

Dont answer that, you have already answered my question by implying "no".

i dont have to post anything. i am not selling anything. you were the one claiming that et should pay you for all of your wisdom.

 

[eagle488]

If you cant recognize sarcasm when you see it, then I feel sorry for the people who have to put up with you on a daily basis. You shouldnt take life so seriously.

However, if you present yourself in a stock forum and make the blatant accusation that someone cannot make money over the long term and then insert comments like "idiot", then you must have some sort of strategy for us all to make money. You stood up so confidently to make those remarks, now where is your strategy that we can all gleem from?

I have given you the opportunity to present to us in this forum a simple strategy to make cash. You have refused and failed to do so. In fact, you presented to me what amounts to zero dollar excuses like "any idiot can make money in this market" and "Im not selling anything". Therefore, I can only conclude that I am talking to a windbag who serves no other purpose then to waste our time.

Quote from vhehn:

i dont have to post anything. i am not selling anything. you were the one claiming that et should pay you for all of your wisdom.

 

[eagle488]

MAKING SENSE OF EFUT

Ok, Im going to do it. Im going to attempt to make sense of EFUT.

First, let me say that I dont want to understand EFUT, but since its there I believe that I have to try. Anything that trades on the market, we have to make an attempt to understand.

Second, I have no plan to trade EFUT as I believe it to be an equity that is caught in a bubble that might suddenly pop and place myself behind the big black 8 ball. I wont put my capital at risk.

Here we go. . .

EFUT is right now an undervalued equity in the eyes of the market. Its true market price should be $65 and not the current price.

To understand as to why, you have to look back to the 1999-2000 period when tech stocks and certain large cap issues ballooned to out of control levels and the bullishness reached stellar proportions. Investors believed at the time that the domestic market would return for them 23% year after year going forward. If you understand what happened during that time period, then you can clearly understand what is going on with EFUT.

Lets take a look at the profile for EFUT as it reads on Yahoo:

"e-Future Information Technology, Inc., through its subsidiary, e-Future (Beijing) Tornado Information Technology, Inc., provides integrated software and professional services for manufacturers, distributors, wholesalers, logistics companies, and retailers in China’s supply chain front market. The company’s software solutions include e-Future ONE Visual-DRP, a Web-based product designed to meet the distribution and network management needs of manufacturers; e-Future ONE DMS, a mini-enterprise resource planning application utilized by wholesalers and distributors in the consumer goods industry; e-Future ONE POS-ERP, a software solution designed to meet the demands of retailers for goods flow, order flow, information flow, and cash flow management; e-Future ONE LRP, an application utilized by distributors or logistics companies to enable such companies to improve warehouse management, transportation management, and logistics management; e-Future ONE SCM, designed to promote collaborative business between retailers and their suppliers; e-Future ONE CPFR/VMI, a program that provides customers with collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment features; e-Future ONE CRM, a system tool mining and analyzing customer data for retailing operations; and e-Future ONE BI, a program designed for intelligent distribution. In addition, the company provides system design and system implementation through the application of the software, as well as ongoing technical supporting services. e-Future Information Technology was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Beijing, China."

This company is a small software company in China.

The foreign market has been on a huge tear for the last 3-4 years and it doesnt show any sign of slowing. Anything that seems to involve China is especially hot. In 2005, BIDU went public and was closely associated with GOOGLE, however, BIDU is no where close to Google in anyway, shape or form. Even the underwriters of BIDU had come out shortly after the stock started trading stating that BIDU was a $35 stock (if my memory serves me correct). Jim Cramer only had one word "triple sell".

However, BIDU made it despite the large amount of criticism. It successfully traded at inflated P/Es and continues to trade at overly high P/E levels with great expectations of growth. BIDU was the test stock to see if overly inflated Chinese stocks would work on the US exchanges. From then forward, any Chinese stock would be very popular and billed as a hyper growth company.

I have scanned many message boards and it seems as if the popular theory that EFUT is going to be the Chinese Microsoft. My personal opinion is that this theory is absurd, but people are buying it.

So I did a value on the stock of EFUT and believe that its fairly valued at a price of $65. Although, I will not trade one share of the stock myself. No sir, even at gunpoint. Using the psychology of the people placing their cash into this company and seeing how other Chinese tech/internet companies are traded, I see $65 in the future.

Im going to say this once more so there is no room to doubt. I will not trade it, I will not get near it. Its not the Chinese Microsoft, but the Askjeeves.com of 1999. I have confidence, though, that it will trade to 65 bucks with a P/E of 150.

The psychology being placed into the Chinese market is exactly the same as it was in 1999 for US tech/internet companies. I do not recommend anyone to touch EFUT. Do not trade it. You might make cash, but it might take that cash back in a heartbeat.

 

[makloda]

Quote from eagle488:

Yahoo- Recommended at $24.15, now at $26.91, 11% increase
Western Digital- Recommended at $17.87, now at $20.45, 14% increase
Legg Mason- Reccommended at $86.25, now at $97.70, 13% increase
Marvell- Recommended at $16.25, now at 19, 17% increase
AMKR- Recommended at $8.50, now at 9.67, 14% increase
Riverbed- Recommended at $22, now at 29.50, 33% increase
Western Union- Recommended at $22.50, now at 22.67, 1% increase

WOW! You made 15% in NASDAQ stocks when the QQQQs are up 15% with barely any down days in the same timeframe!!!!!!!!!! Incredible!

 

[eagle488]

Actually, its much higher then 15%. Marvell just broke out and is probably going to head towards 50 week moving average of 24.5. Im expecting AMKR to move to 12 within 1 month. My attitude has changed slightly on Western Union due to what they are doing with the debt. RVBD is heading to 35-40 area. WDC/LM I maintain same attitude.

There have been many stocks in the market that have gone down in the same time period, i.e. energy related stocks. There have also been some tech issues that have declined as well. If I asked you 2 months ago to present 5 stocks, could you have given me some that would have appreciated? Would some of your stocks have depreciated?

I gave you 5 stocks that did appreciate and are still going up as we speak.

Its fairly easy to see where the market is going in the next 2 months at any given time. However, there are some people who dont seem to get it. During the summer, it was easy to predict the market would go higher and there were some obvious picks. It was fear that kept most people from buying, however, the charts dont lie.

I can tell you where the market is going in the next 2-3 months. As I eluded to you before, I believe the next greatest play is in energy. Most of the energy stocks have been beaten down especially the ethanol stocks. Congress is going to push forward more ethanol friendly legislation especially Obama. Energy prices will rise as it gets colder. As I speak, it does appear to be a little nippy here in NYC.

As we move forward into December/January, the tech issues will become a sell. I feel that Healthcare providers, drugs and drug stores will be good spring buys and then sells during the summers. Then its back to buying the beaten down issues again during July's clearance sale.

My point is that rude commentary is easy to post. Anyone can do it and I dont need to hire someone to come in here and make rude comments. If you think your the man, then dont be afraid to post your picks or your educated opinion.

I have no fear to post my picks as I have been through a lot in life. If I am wrong on a messageboard, its not going to break my spirit or soul. However, some of you believe that it will break your soul if your wrong. Believe me, look across the sea towards the young Americans who die everyday in Iraq. That is a situation that will break you. Look at the situation I am in with the IRS where they say i owe them 87000 from a 2004 tax return that was simply a clerical error on my return. Thats a situation that digs at my soul.

Throwing up some comments here wont do anything. If you want to say you can do better, then lets see you do it. You dont have to throw up a complex strategy, just throw up 5 picks for the next 3 months. This will be like the Apprentice where they sent the candidates out to sell lemonade.

So if you think you can sell the Empire State Building, lets see you sell some lemonade first. Leave the abuse for your kids and wife. This is a stock forum, not your personal residence. Give me 5 good picks that will appreciate or you can give me 5 good stocks for long term shorts.

If you dont want to give me your picks, then its telling character sign of yourself. There is an old saying "put up or shut up". Hehe.

Quote from makloda:

WOW! You made 15% in NASDAQ stocks when the QQQQs are up 15% with barely any down days in the same timeframe!!!!!!!!!! Incredible!

 

[makloda]

Quote from eagle488:
Throwing up some comments here wont do anything. If you want to say you can do better, then lets see you do it. You dont have to throw up a complex strategy, just throw up 5 picks for the next 3 months. This will be like the Apprentice where they sent the candidates out to sell lemonade.[/B]

One day you will learn you will not make money with "stock picks" and your "gut feeling".

I don't have any picks for the next 3 months, I barely have some for the next 3 days. I don't care where the market goes and what sectors go up and down or what companies go bankrupt.

 

[eagle488]

You guys take this messageboard so seriously.........I ask for 5 stock picks and I get a complex explanation of how I will learn one day that I wont make money from stock picks. Dude, this is a messageboard where I pass my time and keep my sanity while I am looking at several monitors all at once.

When I first started out in my 20s, I worked at a REIT under some guy who I knew took amphetamines. His mood swings went from "Your doing such a good job, that we need to get you an assistant" where by he would slip me a few hundreds to the next day of "If you cant do the job, we need to find someone else". This went on for a year until one day I got so pissed, I walked out of the building never to look back again.

Since then, I learned that crystalmeth is not the way to go in business, but Dr. Pepper is the better way of keeping energy throughout the day. Im on my 4th right now. That guy I walked out on has since become a powerful man and that small REIT has turned into a huge bank whose share has gone up substantially. However, the guy has lost all his hair almost like a victim of cancer. It doesnt matter, Im not going to take that abuse ever again.

My point is, Dr Pepper is the way to go. Been around since 1885 in the big red can. #2 ingredient is high fructose corn syrup or ethanol.

Here is what Im looking at. Marvell was a predictable long yesterday and a predictable short today. This couldnt have been anymore obvious. Gotta love Marvell...

Quote from makloda:

One day you will learn you will not make money with "stock picks" and your "gut feeling".

I don't have any picks for the next 3 months, I barely have some for the next 3 days. I don't care where the market goes and what sectors go up and down or what companies go bankrupt.

 

[El OchoCinco]

Quote from eagle488:


Here is what Im looking at. Marvell was a predictable long yesterday and a predictable short today. This couldnt have been anymore obvious. Gotta love Marvell...

So you obviously shorted it today and was long yesterday right? Or was it more obvious after the fact when looking backwards? How come if something was so obvious and predictable[/] you did not take a huge position in both and make a killing? It is not that often that an easy obvious and predictable trade entry comes along, I would think anyone would load up and ride it for all that they can?

 

[makloda]

Quote from eagle488:

When I first started out in my 20s

Your attempts to make yourself look mature are so blatant they actually look a bit funny.

Let me guess: Now you are 24?