Wizard of Wall Street Oct-Nov Edition

Traders have tunnel vision. They only see the cash at the end of the tunnel. There is a fundamental reason why Mastercard will be a splendid short next year. That American Express lawsuit did not disappear and the discovery process starts in the spring.

My professional opinion is that American Express will not settle. Why would they settle? If they had a chance to bring down their greatest competitor, I am sure they are going to try very hard. The damages could possibly reach into the billions of dollars.

Once the American Express lawsuit gets in the traders headlights again, then we will see a car wreck. Let the media run a few clips of the discovery process and then we will see AXP zoom and MA flame out.
 
I have given everyone here several warnings about getting in on IPOS. Now lets examine what happened to two IPOS that got started today.

If you were to ask which IPO would be more successful on the first day, which one would you pick? KBR or HTZ.

Hertz has some big issues and it seems like the underwriters are pawning off Hertz on the shareholders. Everyone knows this. Lots of debt. Who knows how they will get out from under it? Car rental biz, is that really an industry that produces wonder margins?

KBR. Big energy related company, lots of cash profit. Oh man, you would have thought this would have gone gang busters today.

Lets take a look at the chart, it tells all. Lets say you got in at Hertz at 15 dollars and then we finish out at the day at 15.62. Nice reasonable 4% return in one day. Better then a mutual fund or bank account.

Now lets take a look at KBR. A scatter like EKG day with a sudden selloff at the end of day. Depending where you are at on that chart, you could have taken a loss on the first day.

Dont be a punk and get in on these things on the first day. Wait until an analyst comes out with a review, wait for the first conference call. Otherwise it could go either way. You dont know where these things will go.
 

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MARVELL CONFERENCE CALL

Here are the consequences of listening to Jim Cramer. Earlier he had stated to get into Marvell before the conference call. This is never good advice simply because you dont know whats going to happen next.

This is shocking. How many retail investors got in in the 19s during the day? There were probably many and all those guys were probably overleveraged. Now they are staring at a fat loss. Although it could go up tommorrow, chances are that this type of conference call will yield a much lower price in the next few days.

While I am bullish on Marvells long term prospects and the conference call will provide a nice entry point for a long term hold (selloff likely tommorrow), this was horrible advice to hold through earnings.
 

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WHEN TO GET BACK INTO THE OIL COMPANIES

I know your looking at the oil and ethanol companies. Your wondering when its time. VSE only has a 22 million share float. Any pressure in the up direction will send it flying. A lot of these small time oil/ethanol companies have such small floats as well. They are there and will be gold mines soon.

Let me tell you my thesis.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui$XOI&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p29681482183s=

Scroll back to 2004 and 2005. Notice how the OIH gets weak towards the end of the year and then suddenly shoots up in January. Now why is that? Oh, you are reading my post now instead of bypassing it like cheap garbage. Now Im going to tell you why the chart pulls back in December and then takes off. While you were doing all that daytrading, you forgot the past and now I am here to tell you what you missed.

Every December there is an OPEC meeting. The OPEC meeting always results in shocking news that surprises the oil markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=amJTWT8q3lc8&refer=top_world_news

http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/12/markets/stockswatch/

http://in.today.reuters.com/news/ne...R_RTRJONC_0_India-276398-2.xml&archived=False

All the funds are making the same mistake they did the last few years. They are going to sell these oil-energy-ethanol companies all the way until the December oil meeting when Saudi Arabia is going to turn the tables over. There wont be any sellers left by December and then it will be time to go all in to the oils.

You need to get in before that Opec meeting. Maybe about 5 days before. If you want a humble safe gain, then go with a major oil company thats trading as far below the 52 week moving average as possible. If you want a gain you can measure in the tens of thousands, then you go with a company like VSE.

This is purely speculative and highly risky. Do this at your own risk. If history proves right, Saudi is going to turn the tables over in December. Then oil will whipsaw right back up.

Everyone is concentrating on tech right now and oil is going out the window. Traders have tunnel vision and they dont see the OPEC meeting. You need to get in before they see it and that will be the first week of December.
 
VSE will continue to sell off as oil pushes lower. I am predicting that the OPEC meeting in December will heat up the oil prices.

Im going to monitor VSE and see where its at 5-10 days before the meeting in December. I wouldnt throw money at VSE until its in the teens, preferably below 19.
 

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Since you wouldn't address this on the other thread I thought Id bring it over here. Please address...

eagle488
Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 538
11-16-06 04:26 PM
"....$80000 a month may not seem like much, but I am content with that small humble amount of cash.... "

*later in the thread*

"Meanwhile, I am making the moves on the receptionists at Goldman Sachs"

eagle488
Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 538
09-26-06 11:04 PM
"I believe I might get confident one day to quit my job entirely, however they do provide an unmarked company car, pay for my cell phone, pay for the internet, pay for the cable, 401k, pension plan, medical benefits, etc.

If one day trading does not work out, then its nice to know that I have a job lined up that will help me. I do not rely on the job alone to make my check."
 
Quote from eagle488:

VSE will continue to sell off as oil pushes lower. I am predicting that the OPEC meeting in December will heat up the oil prices.

Im going to monitor VSE and see where its at 5-10 days before the meeting in December. I wouldnt throw money at VSE until its in the teens, preferably below 19.
More...

just a heads up on vse. i live in the city where vse is located.there are dozens of little ethanol producers within 100 miles of me. there was a story recently on the local news about how the local ethanol producers are in a bind because they lose money if corn is over $3. how it all shakes out i dont know but if oil is coming down and corn stays high these guys could all lose money in the near future.
 
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