With so many people so heavily indebted, is recovery even possible?
- Thread starter crgarcia
- Start date
If you mean the debt our Government has placed upon us, no.
It'l take generations to pay it off.
Yip we will need the equivalent of the Marshall plan from the Chinese.....Chinashall plan.
We may have to borrow from the IMF and Worldbank to bridge the gap....I see a taste of our own medicine coming.....to adopt certain fiscal and monetary policies or have lending cut.
You're assuming we'll even bother to try... haven't done so in decades... why start now?
Good point!
Just because recovery has followed every other downturn doesn't mean that it has to happen this time...
Time out of work for the unemployed has been steadily increasing since the 70's and in recent times we have had jobless recoveries... that may have gone past the tipping point to where we won't even recover this time...
Consumer debt has to rise before we can have a recovery, that is historically the pattern at least. If consumers stop being debt junkies then we can't have much of a recovery until they are out of debt and have some money to spend, that's the slow painful way and it could take many years... so I'm not holding my breath here...
I was looking at rail shipping numbers for the last twelve months.. there was a spike in April [tax refunds] and July [cash for clunkers program], otherwise it's been trending down for months... it was up a little in June but not significantly enough to say that we have bottomed or are headed into recovery.. and the length of this recession has already far exceeded the average..
If the idea of a jobless recovery is extrapolated.. where are you headed in a society where 70% of the GNP is consumer spending... let's say that every recovery is more jobless than the last one [machines are indeed putting people out of work all over the world], eventually there just won't be enough consumers to lead the economy out of the doldrums.. we might be witnessing that before our very eyes... and added to that is the failed policies of bailout and taxation, known to not work, known to saddle an economy with a load it can't carry well... I just don't think we are going to be booming any time soon at all...
Time out of work for the unemployed has been steadily increasing since the 70's and in recent times we have had jobless recoveries... that may have gone past the tipping point to where we won't even recover this time...
Consumer debt has to rise before we can have a recovery, that is historically the pattern at least. If consumers stop being debt junkies then we can't have much of a recovery until they are out of debt and have some money to spend, that's the slow painful way and it could take many years... so I'm not holding my breath here...
I was looking at rail shipping numbers for the last twelve months.. there was a spike in April [tax refunds] and July [cash for clunkers program], otherwise it's been trending down for months... it was up a little in June but not significantly enough to say that we have bottomed or are headed into recovery.. and the length of this recession has already far exceeded the average..
If the idea of a jobless recovery is extrapolated.. where are you headed in a society where 70% of the GNP is consumer spending... let's say that every recovery is more jobless than the last one [machines are indeed putting people out of work all over the world], eventually there just won't be enough consumers to lead the economy out of the doldrums.. we might be witnessing that before our very eyes... and added to that is the failed policies of bailout and taxation, known to not work, known to saddle an economy with a load it can't carry well... I just don't think we are going to be booming any time soon at all...
it's not possible for us to get out of debt because debt = money. if there was no debt, there would be no money.
we have problems with our economy now because money has become scarce, and there isn't enough money in circulation to service debt. when people/companies can't capture enough money in our economy to service debt, bankruptcies occur and companies close down.
the immediate solution of course is to increase the money supply so debt can be serviced. and there's no way to increase money supply without printing money and therefore going further into debt. this would be our "recovery".
we have problems with our economy now because money has become scarce, and there isn't enough money in circulation to service debt. when people/companies can't capture enough money in our economy to service debt, bankruptcies occur and companies close down.
the immediate solution of course is to increase the money supply so debt can be serviced. and there's no way to increase money supply without printing money and therefore going further into debt. this would be our "recovery".
And there's a difference between "recovery" (genuine) and the APPEARANCE of recovery.. especially as reported by the fox who guards the chickens...
As for "genuine recovery"... we ain't got the proverbial SNOWBALL'S CHANCE IN HELL... unless the US Government adopts tax and friendly policies to encourage business prospects... as of now, we're RACING in the opposite direction... of Socialist Destruction...
