I don't think anybody really knows...
The democrats have scared the hell out of some of their base.
Of the ones who have not yet voted... what if they scared away 10 percent more Democrats than Republicans in the swing states..
I can tell you from being out on Halloween...
The Biden signs in front correlated very strongly with masks and candy chutes.
I don't think it was all virtue signaling..
I think a lot of those people would never show up at polls during Covid.
Did they all remember to mail in and vote early? I can believe a lot did because they had signs... .but their democrat friends without signs?
To me... that is the dem's biggest hurdle and I don't see how it can be forecast.