Kim these are excellent articles. and I see that you wrote them, Thanks for sharing them. Also just so you know, I was correct on my NG trading for the months of Nov, Dec, and Jan. I am exposed to this industry, so I had a good idea I would be right based on raw fundamentals. With the boring but very liquid ES I simply got over confident, thought the bottom was in after Fridays sell off. Very much like the decision Victor Niederhoffer made. and what a foolish decision it was. I was selling the 1800's. so I was far OTM, but again no protection and over leveraged.
Hi
That was a very interesting thread.
I had never opened a short naked put. But it seems that if you can manage a naked put that goes against you, you will be able to manage any option strategy.
So it is a good training.
The OP had a short put at 1800 and the SPX went to 2580 that day . That is a long distance. He was not wrong about the underlying price. If he could have taken the strategy to the expiration day that woudn't had happened.
The advantage of a bull put is that you can take the strategy to expiration.
I want to ask a questions to the OP.
_How your broker managed the situation, they send you a margin call ? How much time they give you to try to resolve the situation?
A question to traders. The problem was the increase of margin caused by the icrease of vega.
_There is some way to block the loss ? It is possible to do gamma scalping, or inverse gamma scalping, to try to mantain the loss more or less controlled ?
Yes, the OP didn't have the cash to short sell /ES , but it is possible to do it with a synthetic /ES ? It is posible to do it for a credit, and probably these way the margin requirement will be lower.
thank you.
Do you know your Kelly? One trader here posted a Kelly of 47%, with that, 20% trade size is not unreasonable.TD Ameritrade does not give you all the credit when you sell a naked put or call so this makes the margin requirement go up a bit, they also use a sophisticated group of quants that calculate whats known as an EPR or an Expected Price Range, this is related mostly to IV, but there are several other factors as well. For futures, this EPR is multiplied times 3, giving a percentage number for /ES of about 12%. In the event you are getting close to this they call you and state that you are at risk for a move in either direction and your account is flagged. After your account gets closer to -50% of its total value (moving against you etc) it is set for liquidation. They have never done this to me in the past because i never got this close, the events of Feb 5th were sudden and caused my account to drop so fast it was liquidated before i was able to see it.
A back ratio would have given me the needed credit / margin to stay alive, and I was going to initiate this after traveling, but I did not, so basically this is why my account exploded. So answer your last question yes this would have worked, but I was over leveraged as well. Another poster recommended only 2%. This is a much safer number. Here I am at roughly 20% with out the credit. Greed, Foolish Stupid Mistake.
My broker emailed me and tried to call me while this was happening, I would say they did right by me in the amount of time they gave me.
As I type this my original /ES 350 options would be worth .10 cents now, verses the original sell price of $1.10. Very frustrating indeed.
Do you know your Kelly? One trader here posted a Kelly of 47%, with that, 20% trade size is not unreasonable.
My guess is the fact that you blew up your Kelly is << 50%?
Most fund managers don't make 12%/year
holy shit is this real? I'd probably have killed myself by now. Hope the OP learns from this and comes back. 100k as in 100,000$?