The Research Triangle Park region in North Carolina is one of the top healthcare areas in the U.S. in terms of services and quality. Both Duke Healthcare and UNC Healthcare having large networks of hospital care plus other providers. We are at the top for the number of hospital beds per person and other standards.
Over recent weeks we have been taking in COVID patients from rural counties that have not ICU beds available.
Our area is only in the Yellow zone for the number of COVID infections but this will not hold off our hospital systems from being overloaded for long.
Triangle could run out of hospital beds in six weeks
https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/re...n-out-of-hospital-beds-in-six-weeks/19419870/
Triangle hospitals could run out of available beds in less than six weeks if coronavirus cases continue to increase at current rates, according to
a report issued Tuesday by health experts.
The report, compiled by researchers at Duke University's Margolis Center for Health Policy and the Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, shows North Carolina overall has slightly more "runway" to work with in terms of hospital capacity, running out of beds in a little more than six weeks.
Intensive care beds across the state could be maxed out in about 4½ weeks under current conditions, according to the report. Triangle hospitals have enough ICU beds to last 5½ weeks.
North Carolina set its 12th consecutive daily record for COVID-19 hospitalizations on Tuesday, at 2,373 people. Hospitals are at 75 percent capacity, with ICU beds 82 percent full. By comparison, the North Carolina Healthcare Association said the average hospital occupancy rate in 2018 was 61 percent.
The Duke and UNC-Chapel Hill researchers noted that the state's seven-day average of new cases has risen by 30 percent in the last week, leading to a 19.9 percent growth rate in virus-related hospitalizations. Lowering that growth rate to 14.9 percent would give North Carolina hospitals an extra couple of weeks before they reach capacity, while a surge of new hospitalizations – similar to what many other states are seeing – could shorten the runway to four weeks, the report states.
As for ICU beds, the current growth rate for COVID patients is 13.8 percent. If that increases to 16.1 percent, all ICU beds statewide could be full within four weeks, the report states.
Triangle hospitals have the second-shortest runway for available beds, trailing the Charlotte and Asheville regions, which are forecast to run out in 4.9 and 5.3 weeks, respectively, under current conditions. The Fayetteville region has nearly seven weeks before it maxes out, and the Wilmington region has the longest runway, at almost 12 weeks.
But Fayetteville-area hospitals are in a more dire situation regarding ICU beds, with less than four weeks until reaching capacity, according to the report. The Asheville region is the worst off, at three weeks, followed by hospitals in Greenville and northeast North Carolina. Once again, hospitals in the Wilmington region are in the best condition, with almost nine weeks until they max out.
"Although very near-term trends are largely unchangeable, we can change trends in the medium term," the researchers write. "Indeed, when North Carolina has faced the prospect of large case counts in the past, we have managed to slow case growth and reduce pressure on hospitals. While we hope we can achieve another reduction in case and hospitalization growth, the recent rapid growth in cases and high testing positivity ratios makes us less optimistic than in the past."