winrate (not profitability) - intradaytrading

Quote from paulus:

i am sorry i cannot because i am using QT , so no back-up
appreciate the effort;
but to give you an idea : yesterday we had a couple of false breaks in the ES 980 sup zone; jumped in and got quickly stopped out;

one of my problems is : where do i catch the BREAK ?
safest is to wait for confimation but this does not always
happen and profit potential is lower ?

another problem : i still do not know how to use volume in conjunction with price (don't have any indicators except for
ATR); this VOLUME problem seems like an important part
lacking in my knowledge i.e. what to look for inside market,
market depth; volume in charts etc (see recent thread that i've started)

i really appreciate your effort !

paulus
More...

Can you give specific times of what your talking about and chart intervals that you were using...

without that its tough to provide anything beyond philosophical discussion.

If you don't want to post the times or chart intervals your using...you could do the following...

Here's a link to a free chart...

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/?User...y=BB&Param1=20&Param2=200&Param3=&FontSize=12

You can change the symbol or time interval by changing info of the following from the above link...

CME:ES03U&Interval=3

Also, you can change the size of the image by changing info of the following from the above link...

Ht=360&Wd=615

Use something like Snagit (free) to capture an image of the above and make annotations on it...

http://www.techsmith.com/products/snagit/default.asp

You'll be posting charts in less than 10mins :cool:

NihabaAshi
 
hi NihabaAshi,

i have a 1 & 2/3 min chart and a 5 min chart

if it is oke with you i post the trades i did yesterday with time indication; i will have a look at snagit later;

S 982.25//982.5 = -0.25 9:46.02/9:47.54
S 982.25//983 = -0.75 9:59.23/10:08.13
S 980.25//979.5 = +0.75 10:17.16/10:19.49
S 978//978 = flat 10:25.11/10:27.55
S 979.5//979.75 = -0.25 14:13.37/14:14.33
S 978.75//979.5 = -0.75 14:22.18/14:23.04

trade 1,2,3, 4 because ES lost 50MA
trade 5,6 because because ES broke (false break) lower part of consolidation pattern;

i will have a more profound look at the links you have posted;

i really appreciate your effort !

paulus
maybe nota a good day for good examples; anywaye overtraded
 
paulus



i don't suggest you trade at 9:59,because at 10:00,the market runs wild like hell,better wait for 10:05,then you get a better look at the market if it's going to be up or down.then again,your entry point is very strange,does'nt make sense to me,i think you need more study on the TA.
 
Quote from paulus:

hi NihabaAshi,

i have a 1 & 2/3 min chart and a 5 min chart

if it is oke with you i post the trades i did yesterday with time indication; i will have a look at snagit later;

S 982.25//982.5 = -0.25 9:46.02/9:47.54
S 982.25//983 = -0.75 9:59.23/10:08.13
S 980.25//979.5 = +0.75 10:17.16/10:19.49
S 978//978 = flat 10:25.11/10:27.55
S 979.5//979.75 = -0.25 14:13.37/14:14.33
S 978.75//979.5 = -0.75 14:22.18/14:23.04

trade 1,2,3, 4 because ES lost 50MA
trade 5,6 because because ES broke (false break) lower part of consolidation pattern;

i will have a more profound look at the links you have posted;

i really appreciate your effort !

paulus
maybe nota a good day for good examples; anywaye overtraded
More...

paulus,

Thanks for the info.

I don't know what your trade methodolgy is but I do know this based on the info how this thread started...

i am trading intraday ES going for 1 to 2pt, sometimes > 2 with a stop 0.5 -0.75pt

Here's what I can see about your Friday trading...

Trade 1, 2, 3, 4:

Your attempting to Short after a failed counter-thrust has already pushed down sharply.

Thus, I can only assume that your methodology is not based on Shorting rallies (counter-thrusts) within the downtrend...

I also know some traders were using pivot numbers on Friday between 981-979.

You yourself mentioned the 980 support number. Thus, I suspect your using some sort'uv pivot or s/r level stuff also.

Trade 2:

That's a problem trade in my opinion based on your quote you posted above.

You shorted at 982.25

After your entry...price traded down as ow as 979.00...

that's a +3.25 price move after your entry.

Why didn't you respect your trading plan of exiting for profits when you said...

for 1 to 2pt, sometimes > 2

???

Even worst...you held on...watching it counter-thrust against you...

Where was your trailing stop to protect profits when it went as low as 979.00

???

Note: It bounced around for a few mins between 980-979...plenty of time for you to think about your trailing stop.

Even with your entry in Trade 2...had you respected what you said for your plan...

your day would have resulted in a profit.

Out of curiousity...why did you Short at 0959am est with a key economic report about to be released at 10am est.

???

Trade 5 and 6:

No comments about these 2 because I don't understand them.

Now had you respected your trading plan.

Your trading day results: 2 winners..3 losers...1 flat and still profitable...

All because Trade 2 should have been a profitable trade for you via respecting your own trading plan.

Reality was that you didn't respect your plan: 1 winner...4 losers...1 flat.

Summary:

(Your win rate is secondary to the below issues)

1. You need to stick to your trading plan.

2. You need to use trailing stops to protect profits.

3. If you don't use divergence signals for entry...at least learn them so that you know when to exit a trade at a nice profit when you see a divergence signal...signalling a reversal or start of a counter-thrust.

4. It's time to expand (build upon) your current trading plan and learn about divergence signals...

lots of useful info here at ET already about such...enough info to keep you busy for awhile...use ET search menu.

Once you learn about divergence...you'll see that in review of Friday's Short entries...you were chasing prices long after the counter-thrusts had failed.

If you choose not to learn about divergence...

I guess when you have another trading day like Friday...you weren't chasing...you were only trying to exploit a pivot or support/resistance number.

P.S. I personally feel to exploit pivot points and s/r levels...traders need to learn about divergence signals to at least know when to exit and protect profits.

Also...I don't know what the 50MA line looks like in QT nor if your using all session or non-all session charts...

I've included an attachement of what it looks like in QCharts...I use the 50eMA for example instead of the 50MA line.

e = exponential

NihabaAshi
 

Attachments

Quote from paulus:

hi,

i am trading intraday ES going for 1 to 2pt, sometimes >2
with a stop 0.5 -0.75pt, mostly RR 1:2; my winrate is still too low for this kind of style i.e. around 35% so i am slightly negative;
any suggestions as to how i could raise my winrate ?

regs,

paulus
More...
winrate and not profitability. Shit man, that's easy. Use a 3 pt stop and a one tick target. You should easily hit over 90%. Then after you get your hitrate sky high, you might just want to devote a little more effort to profitability, cause last time I tried, they won't let you buy groceries with a hitrate.
 
I am truly very greatful to you !
excellent post !

- i indeed try to use a very simple trading system based on s/r

- trade 2 is indeed a problem and fortunately an exception
and i've wrote it down in my tradingjournal
: personally i feel like i missed at least 2.25pt
i do have rulses for this in my tradingplan : started with
once i've got at least one point of profit i get out in the
worst case at BE; changed that rule to : once the trade
moved in my direction by the amount of the initial risk
i move my stop to BE
i consider this mistake (trade 2) as an indication that i need
a break : started trading 9 months ago and worked very hard

- trade 5 and 6 shouldn't have taken place : more an anticipation
of a break than a break (with confirmation)

in conclusion :

i agree that i should stick to my tradingplan i.e using trailing stops;
interesting point about divergences; in the past i looked for
divergences in the daily charts, never used them intraday;
what kind of indicator(s) do you use to spot divergencec ?
i do not use 50MA intraday, only on daily charts; intraday i
use 20MA (and a 10MA)

your post has been very valuable information to me,
i really appreciate it !

kind regards,

paulus
 
profitseer,

you're right ... i know what you mean but ...
but going for 1 - 2 pt's means going quickly in and out ...
the shorter the timeframe the more important good entries and higher winrate become !

paulus
 
Quote from profitseer:

winrate and not profitability. Shit man, that's easy. Use a 3 pt stop and a one tick target. You should easily hit over 90%. Then after you get your hitrate sky high, you might just want to devote a little more effort to profitability, cause last time I tried, they won't let you buy groceries with a hitrate.
More...

Hehe, neat post...
 
Still don't know how people target 1 pt in ES -- how do you separate noise from a well-executed trade? Last I heard, no one gets rebates for bidding/offering on globex, so there's no equivalent to those penny scalpers on stocks.

Forget winrate and learn to capture the larger intraday moves, raise your selectivity -- trade less, while waiting for the market to come to you. Being able to spot the 1-pt trade vs the 5+ pt trade are 2 completely different stories. JMO . . .
 
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