Winning, Losing & BetSize trading the ES
- Thread starter ElectricSavant
- Start date
I think I am going to frame this.
Until he has some good feel and consistency in SIM, why should he go live ? There are simulated environments around these days that calculate your virtual estimated position in queue, so you get simulated fills VERY close to where you would have been filled in live trading. So the fill thing is not a really a factor anymore.
Then you could argue about the emotions of trading live. Well, I think for a scalper in the ES or NQ, who goes for daily profit targets of 50 to 100 US$ per contract, with similar daily loss limits, the emotions when starting with 1 contract live will not go too wild, exactly because of the limited exposure this style of trading comes with. So the emotional and psychological pressure coming from SIM to start trading 1 contract should not be very hard for the average guy.
So it the simulated fills do not differ significantly from the live fills, and the emotions when starting to trade small with this style are also not an issue, why should he then jump into live trading if he feels the consistency is not there yet. Sure he will probably not lose a big amount, but why should he want to lose anything at all if he knows that he is not there yet where he wants to be ?
And a world of hurt when volume picks up again ? There seems to be a great misconception on this forum and the internet in general how very shortterm manual traders (DOM scalpers...) operate. But the way I do it and the way the few others I have seen that trade this way is a very adaptive and flexible one. We are no rigid algos, programmed on a handful of factors, to do A when B shows up. We are a bunch of people that were willing to put alot of work into something, into interacting with the market(s), just because it felt fun to us and we love to do it. By doing so, by all the screen time in front of that boring DOM, treating it like a Super Mario video game, we developed certain skills, just like a player that gets better and better in his game. There are no rigid rules, but alot of experience and a certain feel for the market on the very short term.
This experience also tells you when to go in with 5, 10 or 50 contracts. It also tells you if it makes sense to actually scalp for 1 tick. Or to go for larger targets, in a volatile environment. It is clear that a good trader will not stick to a 1 tick scalping target in a market environment like we had in February this year. In fact, in my thread right when the VIX explosion began, I commented on the much larger moves and intraday swings and that you guys should adapt to this and really make hay while the sun is shining
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/love-this-vix-rocket.317890/
So I really dont understand how you come to the conclusion that a scalper will get hurt once volume and/or volatility picks up. It is quite the opposite... we thrive on this ! Look at the futures prop firms in London: the good traders there have average days in average markets, they make some money, they take what they can, but it is nothing spectacular most of the time. Then suddenly there comes a surprising event, a rate hike, a VIX shock or whatever... volumes goes way up, volatility explodes, and most of these traders have their best days and really pile on the profits.
You guys should really start to understand that a good, experienced, manual scalper is exactly the opposite of a rigid, unflexible algorithm or trading system. He is a flexible trader who is paying attention to the now and here, and who trys to take whatever the market is offering on any given day.
Hey Over,
Hah, ES used to be a Spot Currency guy, for years and couldn't make that work, now trading futures. So here is the deal, you have the ability to trade, lets say 1 cent a pip in retail FX, and you can't make that work, and you lose. How are you going to make futures work ???? Oh wait you just blow up sooner.
The Ever Shaking My Head VIPER
Hah, ES used to be a Spot Currency guy, for years and couldn't make that work, now trading futures. So here is the deal, you have the ability to trade, lets say 1 cent a pip in retail FX, and you can't make that work, and you lose. How are you going to make futures work ???? Oh wait you just blow up sooner.
The Ever Shaking My Head VIPER
Yes and then you can start a secret trading society, with a decoder ring, secret handshake, and underwear. It will be yuuuuge.
The Ever Wondering VIPER
Stay out please asshole
Now you see how this works. You cannot defend your system on it's merits, so you resort to profanity. Man ya can't even take a joke.
The Ever Aware VIPER
Tomorrow Morning is Consumer Confidence at 9:00 AM Chicago Time...
I just wanted to thank the folks here in ET. I put myself out here naked and asked for help. Sorta of a simple concept ...right?
I am overwhelmed with help. This Forum helped me. You folks that stepped up know who you are and for some reason held out your hand of friendship. You are truly human folks.
I now am training and have direction. This is going to take some screen time and its all up to me. If I fail that is nothing new to me. But this time I feel I have the support I need. God, Wife & friends from ET...
Forex was a dead end for me for over a decade even though I have a Forex thread here. I like to test EA's knowing in advance that no matter how I tweak them that they will never win. I find it fun to tweak code and do crazy math....it keeps me hoping.
I have found ET to have been so negative over the years and many traders here do not know how to trade and should not call themselves traders. My eyes have been opened for a long time but now more than ever. I have tried to help as many folks that I can over these years.
I am now a full-time trader again but this time not as a CTA but for myself as I did not like to trade other peoples money. I call myself a trader again and actually feel more qualified. I always have called myself a trader and have been in ET for 15 years but it is different this time. I have no problem trading a prop shops money and feel that is the direction I want to go.
Trading now is far from hoping, wishing and waiting as I am trading intraday and training in order flow. How anybody can make any money trading the ES manually for intraday trades and be consistently profitable is lying. I am in hopes of being able to survive knowing this. I am fortunate to be trained by a committed veteran trader who took me under his wing and has worked with me day and night in replay and live by camera over the last few weeks.
A few other traders have traded systems together with me to help me find my way in which I am thankful. I will never forget you. But now I must post less in ET and occasionally visit as I must keep my mind clear and learn without distraction. This is getting real serious for me and its been over 20 years since I have been so serious about full-time trading again.
TraderEX and Handle folks try to read their posts often..I know sometimes it can be hard to follow them but you will gain knowledge. I cannot spread myself too thin and can only trade the way that they trade occasionally in my personal account. Later on I may be working with those two more but for now my time is focused on learning orderflow. Folks if you get a chance to read Sprouts posts...he is amazing.
tommcginnis and CALLumbus are the other two here that really trade that I know of. Read their stuff in these dusty archives buried in negativity...dig out those gems.
Thank You and goodbye for now.
ES
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Anytime my friend. You know I didn't give you all the sauce but you need to finish on your own, that's important. It's a manual process as you know. Glad you could integrate some ideas. When order flow works for you send me a message and teach me. That's our agreement.
I will disregard the comment about lying if you are a consistent winner at day trading. I thought the same when I was on the dark side.
I am extremely hard to follow because my pattern recognition ability is assumed to be yours. I see the answer clearly and cut the corners in explanation, or so I'm told. Talk to me when I'm really stoned and slow and you'll have a better chance. LOL I'm always really stoned. It's a medication thing.
Good luck to you my friend. You're smart enough but have trouble finding direction. All the systems listed work. Laser focus is the key. Mine was to find one tic, in the ES, with the trend, between 1030 and 330 est, off for lunch f course. You have seen more of my live results than anyone. Took me 10,000, over 3.75 years to get hear. Profitable for last 1.5 years and solid as a rock. You've seen 10 in a row and 56 out of 60 with 4 ties.
Your answers are out there my friend. How many hours away I cannot say. Anytime spent doing anything else at this point, is wasted time.
Can't wait to say, my friend the Savant, that's right, he dah man.
Godspeed, only way to travel.