win/loss over 70% - please help
- Thread starter zenith
- Start date
61.70% win rate arbitration/hedged. only four losing days in the last 60 days
but a low profit factor here...(1.16)
but a low profit factor here...(1.16)
The suggestion of using targets (rather than some form of trailing stops) can provide a 70-80% win rate with the right style of entry. Although 99atlantic can be right about the expectancy of the system he can also be wrong -- depends on the system.
A pullback entry of some form plus an easily reached target (70-80% of the time) offers a system that can be traded hard (because with high win rate and low standard deviation the frequency of long strings of losses is lowered greatly). In this case the profitability may be enhanced as long as the money management strategy takes into account the statistical distribution of wins and losses.
I want a system that only wins less than 10% of the time.
"Oh. Lord. woncha buy me
A Mercedes Benz?
My friends all drive Porshies,
I must make amends.
Worked hard all my lifetime,
No help from my friends.
So oh, Lord, woncha buy me
A Mercedes Benz!"
A Mercedes Benz?
My friends all drive Porshies,
I must make amends.
Worked hard all my lifetime,
No help from my friends.
So oh, Lord, woncha buy me
A Mercedes Benz!"
My conclusion is that trading futures with the need of charts and primarily indicators is fools gold. The bottom line is chart/indicator trading is all left to interpretation and discretionary decision. I am not saying that chart/indicator trading can't be made to work for certain individuals for certain periods of time, maybe 6 months or 2 years, who knows.
What I have done, has been to focus all of my R&D time on fully mechanical "no charts/indicators needed" trading systems. I have three fully mechanical systems that are all highly profitable and I am very comfortable when in trades. I no longer have to be left to the mercy of my interpretation of some squiggly indicator off some chart.
I spend my trade system R&D time on the dynamics of position management, and the ability to design entry/exit sequences that are always at my accounts advantage. I kind of use the price action of the market against itself and to my advantage - or I take advantage of what the market price movement always does every day with no exceptions.
I did noticed that when I shifted my focus in trading to these mechanical trading concepts that I was able to find some good ideas right away - it was the back testing that took the time to prove out the ideas. All the weeks spent back testing is worth it though, as that is necessary to get to a system you can trade with confidence and ease.
Make it simple and make it mechanical and then you will have a very robust system that will do well.
What I have done, has been to focus all of my R&D time on fully mechanical "no charts/indicators needed" trading systems. I have three fully mechanical systems that are all highly profitable and I am very comfortable when in trades. I no longer have to be left to the mercy of my interpretation of some squiggly indicator off some chart.
I spend my trade system R&D time on the dynamics of position management, and the ability to design entry/exit sequences that are always at my accounts advantage. I kind of use the price action of the market against itself and to my advantage - or I take advantage of what the market price movement always does every day with no exceptions.
I did noticed that when I shifted my focus in trading to these mechanical trading concepts that I was able to find some good ideas right away - it was the back testing that took the time to prove out the ideas. All the weeks spent back testing is worth it though, as that is necessary to get to a system you can trade with confidence and ease.
Make it simple and make it mechanical and then you will have a very robust system that will do well.
You have come to the right place. Everyone, with the exception of you, is a winner on this site and 70% winners are like taking a walk in the park for most of the traders here.
Remember, there are something like 50k professional traders in the US, and of those probably less than half are profitable. Of the profitable ones, probably 1 in a 100 or less have profitable trading systems. Only the profitable ones are members of ET and love to give advice under anonymous handles.
nitro