Will we go into recession in the next 3 years?
- Thread starter orbit23
- Start date
What do you mean by “will”?
Every outlet out there explains that we’re currently in a recession:
https://www.marketplace.org/2020/06/09/its-official-were-in-a-recession/
https://www.investmentnews.com/its-official-were-in-a-recession-18850
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2020/06/09/were-in-a-recession-by-the-way-788358
Every outlet out there explains that we’re currently in a recession:
https://www.marketplace.org/2020/06/09/its-official-were-in-a-recession/
https://www.investmentnews.com/its-official-were-in-a-recession-18850
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2020/06/09/were-in-a-recession-by-the-way-788358
A recession is classically defined as GDP contraction for two consecutive quarters. Last quarter we had a contraction, and we know Q2 will show contraction. So yeah, we are already in one. In 3 years we'll be busting out to ATH again, over and over and over.
I disagree. We'll have the vaccine by then, and yes, it will take a while to get it distributed, but the OUTLOOK will be up. Thus the whole reason we're way off the March 23rd lows. The positive OUTLOOK.
There's a lot of financial problems in many sectors. Most barely contained. Many are borrowing hoping for a solution in near term, that debt will come back to them.
We're perpetually in debt, ever have been since the Fed was created back in the early 1900s.
Look...
We got the central bank, who creates money and charges banks (and the government) interest to borrow that money.
Lalalala, wheee. Now we have the Fed agreeing to buy corporate bonds, so the companies can pay back their loans to the banks. So the corporations are paying the Fed interest on those bonds, which the Fed was already charging the corporation to begin with (through the bank interest, through the Fed interest). Eventually, the companies have to pay back the principal.
So where did the interest come from to pay on the bonds the Fed bought? Never-ending cycle.
To me it seems like the FED is doing a fantastic job. Their goal is to keep the economy stable and they provided the needed liquidity in the time of crisis.
If we all expect a recession, it probably isn't coming any time soon..
If i had to guess, i would say that a second wave of Corona will hit by the end of year. The heat usually slows down the spread of the virus. It outbreaks when our immunity weakens which could be in autumn. While at the same time, there are presidential elections on November the third, this year. I see this as a volatility event, and i could easily see a similar dump to what we saw in march. But still, those could be some great buying opportunities.
If we all expect a recession, it probably isn't coming any time soon..
If i had to guess, i would say that a second wave of Corona will hit by the end of year. The heat usually slows down the spread of the virus. It outbreaks when our immunity weakens which could be in autumn. While at the same time, there are presidential elections on November the third, this year. I see this as a volatility event, and i could easily see a similar dump to what we saw in march. But still, those could be some great buying opportunities.
This is the real concern. Civil unrest is one major threat. Another threat is concentration of power by companies that have been chosen by the fed to survive. Smaller businesses will be acquired/forced out.
We are certainly about to see a true test of capitalism. It's anyone's guess now what will happen.
it is said by many people US federal can never be paid off.