nearly all talking heads expect the market to go up big on a war.
cramer expects the market to go up big on a war (and in fact, has been screaming "1991!" for at least 1 year).
therefore, given most talking heads (contrary), and cramer (excellent results when going contrary to his foaming rapid blatherings)...
i believe any gains that happen WITH OR WITHOUT A WAR will be wiped out. of course, to paraphrase the comments in reminscences, "it's a bear market, you know".
the way to knock out as many participants as possible would be to have a sharp runup - knocking out shorts, sucking in longs - and then a drip down, then taking out lows.