What shortsale restrictions would prevent corrections?
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Will US markets be more expensive than what they have been historically, forever?
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
What shortsale restrictions would prevent corrections?
you are some kind of cowboy. if you knew how to do basic research you would know that Daal is from outside of the US. your post is nonsensical, since it starts from a false premise.l your rubbish comment rebounds to you. i suppose you will come up with one more rubbish apology.
I refer you back to the very first phrase of the OP's post :
"US investors have such an advantage over other folks around the world because:"
The OP then proceeded to provide a list of supposed advantages that are in no way shape or form special or unique to US investors.
What more can I say.
In my country (Brazil) I dont have 1/4 of the tools, information, vehicles, liquidity that US investors haveI refer you back to the very first phrase of the OP's post :
"US investors have such an advantage over other folks around the world because:"
The OP then proceeded to provide a list of supposed advantages that are in no way shape or form special or unique to US investors.
What more can I say.
In my country (Brazil) I dont have 1/4 of the tools, information, vehicles, liquidity that US investors have
You do have the tools and information. You are living in Brazil, not North Korea. It's the 21st century, books are available worldwide, and electronic networks permit dissemination of information across geographic boundaries ! (I should also add that most finance books printed in the US are not worth the paper they are printed on)
In relation to the vehicles and liquidity, whilst yes, in an emerging country such as Brazil you may not have the opportunities domestically, I fail to see why you, like everyone else on this planet, cannot access the opportunities available in other parts of the world.
Unless you tell me brokers in Brazil don't allow access to assets outside of Brazil ? That would be the only instance in which I could see your statement making sense.
You do have the tools and information. You are living in Brazil, not North Korea. It's the 21st century, books are available worldwide, and electronic networks permit dissemination of information across geographic boundaries ! (I should also add that most finance books printed in the US are not worth the paper they are printed on)
In relation to the vehicles and liquidity, whilst yes, in an emerging country such as Brazil you may not have the opportunities domestically, I fail to see why you, like everyone else on this planet, cannot access the opportunities available in other parts of the world.
Unless you tell me brokers in Brazil don't allow access to assets outside of Brazil ? That would be the only instance in which I could see your statement making sense.
Most of the good financial books in Brazil are just cheap copies of ideas the authors read on US books. You only get a fraction of the total information.
Furthermore websites with wealth of statiscs in the markets are quite limited. In the US regularly you see on the WSJ or Marketwatch, stastitics going back decades, perhaps centuries. What is the average drop of the stock market during recessions? In the US you can find that within seconds, in Brazil,well good luck getting that data. Especially if you need to go back for any length of time. In the US there are thousands and thousands of studies and backtests of the stock and bond markets, in Brazil its a fraction. You know what I do to find out the PE of the Brazilian stock market? I pull up EWZ on Yahoo finance because I can look around for hours in Brazilian sites and not find that information
The amount of ETFs avaliable to me in my country is like nothing. There is a few but in the US, you have like hundreds (thousands?). One can invest in so many different asset classes (makes diversification a lot easier, so the investor carries less risk and can be more comfortable), strategies, etc. In my country, if you want to invest outside it, its a lot harder. There is no quick ETF one can just pull up on etrade. You will probably have to wire the money outside, lose 3% right off the bat (FX fee) plus deal with all kinds of economies of scale issues. In the US, anyone can do it instantly
In my country, if you want to invest outside it, its a lot harder.
I think fundamentally this is your main problem. If you were able to access asset classes outside Brazil, then the rest of would just fall into place naturally. Because at the moment, even if you had all the books and data, given the trading restrictions you mention, it sounds like it would not be possible for you to take advantage of them. Personally, if I were in your shoes, I would forget the 3% FX loss, and open an account somewhere that gives you access to broader markets.
I think, in all honesty, my biggest problem with your post was your US-centric view of the world. You made the Americans sound like they are some privileged bunch. They are not.
Whilst in the emerging markets you may encounter some of the difficulties you point out, other developed markets around the world have the same information and opportunities as the US. Europe and AsiaPacific are fantastic markets, with significant size and liquidity. Therefore to adopt a US-centric view of the world is just completely wrong and ignoring a great many wonderful opportunities.
I have said more than my 2 pennies worth now, so I will not post any more replies to this thread. I wish you good luck.
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short selling restrictions are likely to lead to massive overvaluations
When short selling restrictions were put in place during the financial crisis (in 2008), that is when the real selling started and the market got hammered.
corrections will always occur. the question is from what level. bubbles last longer where short sale restrictions exist.What shortsale restrictions would prevent corrections?
the ultimate restriction is eliminating short selling altogether.
banning/limiting short selling when the market is falling is a different scenario altogether. under this scenario panic will ensue as traders/investors might envision closing of exchanges or restrictions on selling in general.
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In my country (Brazil) I dont have 1/4 of the tools, information, vehicles, liquidity that US investors have
I don't know about all that....
......but at least you've got some of the worlds most beautiful women down there. That's gotta count for somethin'.
Viva Brazil!
You forget interest rates. If we had 12-18% interest rates (10y US gov bonds, corporate bonds) like in the 70s then valuations would be a lot closer to 7-8 times than they are now.I recall some books talking about how valuations moves in cycles and one day we will all see use stocks trading at 7-8 times earnings like in the 70's. The factors above make me seriously doubt that. Sure, there will be some cyclicality in terms of valuations but I dont think they will ever get as low as they have gotten in the past.
Low PEs in the 70s didn't just exist because people were stupid or didn't want to own quality stocks but because you don't evaluate an asset in isolation but always in comparison to other assets. Equity vs. Real Estate vs. Bonds is a good mental exercise.