More credible then almost anything you've posted for weeks on here. It will all be abundantly clear on election night, as Trump ends his political career. Trump's legacy is awful and if you have any sense at all you'll realize this in 20 years.
Will Trump win re-election
- Thread starter fan27
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More credible then almost anything you've posted for weeks on here. It will all be abundantly clear on election night, as Trump ends his political career. Trump's legacy is awful and if you have any sense at all you'll realize this in 20 years.
Trump is done. 2020 is not 2016, The last poll out of PA in 2016 had Trump +.9%, he won the state by .7%. The polls in 2016 accurately reflected the popular vote. Trump won the electoral college by a mere 80,000 votes over three midwestern swing states - PA, MI, WI. That lead is long gone - though PA will be closer than the other two and Trump may very well take PA still.
In 2016, Congressional level polls clearly indicated Trump had the momentum heading into election day, not Hillary, and the 18% undecideds broke strong for Trump in that last week.
Simply a different dynamic today. Congressional District polling has been moving - but away from Republicans and toward Democrats.
This is not between Trump and Biden. It is a referendum on Trump and he will not be chosen to continue.
In 2016, Congressional level polls clearly indicated Trump had the momentum heading into election day, not Hillary, and the 18% undecideds broke strong for Trump in that last week.
Simply a different dynamic today. Congressional District polling has been moving - but away from Republicans and toward Democrats.
This is not between Trump and Biden. It is a referendum on Trump and he will not be chosen to continue.
Right now I see 8 swing states and 2 swing districts: PA, FL, AZ, NC, GA, OH, IA, TX, ME-2, and NE-2.
Trump needs either:
Scenario 1: PA, FL, AZ, NC, GA, OH, TX (He can lose IA, but win the other 7 states, unlikely at this point)
Scenario 2: PA, FL, NC, GA, OH, IA, TX, ME-2, and NE-2 (loses AZ and it's a 269-269 tie where it goes to the House, NE-2 might be the least likely for him to hold based on demographics, but there's not enough polling data there)
However, if Biden loses PA, he's probably lost every other state listed. His margin in PA is the biggest of any state within 4 points right now. I really don't think MI, WI, MN, NV, NH, ME-A, CO, NM, or VA are in play.
Best case scenario for Trump: 280-258 Trump
Best case scenario for Biden: 413-125 Biden.
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Biden's polling lead in WI and MI much larger than PA.
Biden will not lose Nebraska 2.
Right now probability that Biden wins an EC landslide is higher than Trump wining the 270 minimum.
Trump is done.
Biden wins with 290 EC minimum (Biden 290-Trump 248)
If Trump gets PA, then it could be Biden 270 Trump 268.
The key state to watch on Tuesday night would seem to be Arizona, even more so than than Florida. If Trump loses AZ, it is almost surely over. If he loses Florida, it is over.
I said I don't consider MI or WI swing states. I said that, because I think they're firmly for Biden. Once again if Trump only loses MI, WI, and NE-2 from 2016 he wins. He even has room to lose ME-2 and IA from there (though it's unlikely he would lose IA in a PA win scenario). If he wins PA he's likely to hold AZ, TX, FL, NC, GA, and OH.
This map gets it done:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/OAj7Q
This is probably the most realistic map if he wins PA (also wins IA and ME-2, ME-2 being the more disputable though the limited polling there is still closer than in PA):
https://www.270towin.com/maps/1kbL7 (a 279-259 win)
He's likely to win AZ, TX, FL, NC, GA, IA, and OH by larger margins than he is PA. He's either leading or behind by a point or 2 in the averages for each of them.
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when your own people speak like this:
Trump aides preparing for a election day wipe-out as donors regret donating to president’s campaign:
According to a report from the Daily Beast, a dark cloud has descended over close associates of Donald Trump as well as White House officials as they prepare for a disastrous Election Day where they expect the president to be soundly defeated.
In interviews, multiple officials indicated they see no way the president can pull off his re-election, with the Beast characterizing their responses as “Our guy blew it.”
Choosing to go on the record, occasional Trump adviser Stephen Moore lamented the prospect that the president will go down to defeat, saying, “I believe the betting markets, which say there’s a 60 percent chance that Biden wins, and a 40 percent chance that Trump does,” before adding, “I really don’t have a good feeling about this.”
One major donor, Dan Eberhart, chief executive at Canary, said he regrets donating to the president’s campaign, adding he would change it all if he could.
According to Eberhardt, given a second chance, he would have used his money to work to save the Republican-controlled Senate rather than contribute to the president who looks to be a one-termer.
“Honestly, I would have put all my donations towards holding the Senate. I never thought the Senate would be in play,” he explained.
The Beast report adds that White House officials are now casting an eye to a post-Trump presidency.
You can read more here.
Trump aides preparing for a election day wipe-out as donors regret donating to president’s campaign:
According to a report from the Daily Beast, a dark cloud has descended over close associates of Donald Trump as well as White House officials as they prepare for a disastrous Election Day where they expect the president to be soundly defeated.
In interviews, multiple officials indicated they see no way the president can pull off his re-election, with the Beast characterizing their responses as “Our guy blew it.”
Choosing to go on the record, occasional Trump adviser Stephen Moore lamented the prospect that the president will go down to defeat, saying, “I believe the betting markets, which say there’s a 60 percent chance that Biden wins, and a 40 percent chance that Trump does,” before adding, “I really don’t have a good feeling about this.”
One major donor, Dan Eberhart, chief executive at Canary, said he regrets donating to the president’s campaign, adding he would change it all if he could.
According to Eberhardt, given a second chance, he would have used his money to work to save the Republican-controlled Senate rather than contribute to the president who looks to be a one-termer.
“Honestly, I would have put all my donations towards holding the Senate. I never thought the Senate would be in play,” he explained.
The Beast report adds that White House officials are now casting an eye to a post-Trump presidency.
You can read more here.
The once upon a time best people in Washington are attacking each other in their bid to become relevant again.
Trumpworld’s darkest plot yet is starting to implode
During the final days of President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign, former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon has been desperately fighting to remain relevant in Trumpworld. Bannon’s ideas for getting Trump reelected range from firing FBI Director Christopher Wray to smearing former Vice President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden. And in his desperation, Bannon has even been attacking major Trump allies like former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Attorney General William Barr and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
Vice’s Emanuel Maiberg is reporting that “a series of videos and photos which appear to show Hunter Biden having sex are going viral on a Chinese-language news and video sharing website” co-founded by Bannon. Maiberg notes that “the videos are often narrated by users in English with a Chinese accent, and claim that the explicit photos and videos of Hunter Biden are proof that he’s compromised by the Chinese government.”
So far, however, efforts by Bannon and Giuliani to smear Hunter Biden haven’t made a difference in the presidential election. And even the far-right Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas told Axios’ Jonathan Swan that the e-mails and videos on a hard drive allegedly belonging to the former vice president’s son aren’t having an impact. Cruz told Swan, “I don’t think it moves a single voter.”
“In the past few days,” according to Pentz, Bannon has “lambasted Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, Attorney General William Barr and even Donald Trump himself — calling them ‘weak’ for not pushing for, or bringing about, the immediate firing of FBI Director Christopher Wray.”
“On October 29,” Peltz reports, “Bannon attacked Giuliani even though they’ve been working together to launder the bogus story that first appeared in the New York Post, calling him ‘one of the weak guys around’ Trump.”
In a transcript of that October 29 conversation, according to Peltz, Bannon declared, “Wray must be fired this morning” — and Giuliani agreed with firing Wray, but not until after the election. Bannon, in response, told Giuliani, “You’re one of the weak guys around him. You’re getting weak on me, Rudy. No, you’re weak. You sort of sound like Chris; you spent too much time with Chris Christie. You’re getting weak.”
Bannon also slammed Barr as “another weak link in this chain.”
Trumpworld’s darkest plot yet is starting to implode
During the final days of President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign, former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon has been desperately fighting to remain relevant in Trumpworld. Bannon’s ideas for getting Trump reelected range from firing FBI Director Christopher Wray to smearing former Vice President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden. And in his desperation, Bannon has even been attacking major Trump allies like former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Attorney General William Barr and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
Vice’s Emanuel Maiberg is reporting that “a series of videos and photos which appear to show Hunter Biden having sex are going viral on a Chinese-language news and video sharing website” co-founded by Bannon. Maiberg notes that “the videos are often narrated by users in English with a Chinese accent, and claim that the explicit photos and videos of Hunter Biden are proof that he’s compromised by the Chinese government.”
So far, however, efforts by Bannon and Giuliani to smear Hunter Biden haven’t made a difference in the presidential election. And even the far-right Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas told Axios’ Jonathan Swan that the e-mails and videos on a hard drive allegedly belonging to the former vice president’s son aren’t having an impact. Cruz told Swan, “I don’t think it moves a single voter.”
“In the past few days,” according to Pentz, Bannon has “lambasted Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, Attorney General William Barr and even Donald Trump himself — calling them ‘weak’ for not pushing for, or bringing about, the immediate firing of FBI Director Christopher Wray.”
“On October 29,” Peltz reports, “Bannon attacked Giuliani even though they’ve been working together to launder the bogus story that first appeared in the New York Post, calling him ‘one of the weak guys around’ Trump.”
In a transcript of that October 29 conversation, according to Peltz, Bannon declared, “Wray must be fired this morning” — and Giuliani agreed with firing Wray, but not until after the election. Bannon, in response, told Giuliani, “You’re one of the weak guys around him. You’re getting weak on me, Rudy. No, you’re weak. You sort of sound like Chris; you spent too much time with Chris Christie. You’re getting weak.”
Bannon also slammed Barr as “another weak link in this chain.”
You do not sound credible because I sure damn well DID NOT state I helped someone fill out election forms (your exact words via the IF).
Seriously, how the fuck did you come to that conclusion after I stated I called via telephone up my friends / emailed my friends to encourage them to VOTE via telling them to contact their state to get an Absentee Vote instead of sitting on their ass...not doing anything and then bitching later about whom was elected.
I then polled my close friends to see how they voted...
15% stated they voted for Trump / 85% stated they voted for Biden.
Here's an example...now I'm going to tell you to go out and vote before Tuesday November 3rd and tell you to make sure you send in your Absentee Ballot. After you do such, let me know how you voted in the main election (Trump or Biden).
You email me about 2 weeks later and stated you voted for Trump, your spouse voted for Biden and your two college children voted for Biden.
- Did I just help you, your spouse and children at whatever university they're attending to "fill out election forms" ???
Get out and vote...the election is Tuesday November 3rd. It's the only way to have your voice to be heard. At this point in time, its too late to mail in your ballot unless you use those designated drop boxes.
You'll most likely need to do it in person if you have not already voted.
Too many people around here debating about politics...gotta make sure you folks do not forget to get out and vote. If you've already voted...great.
By the way, do not fabricate a story about Americans living abroad are private about whom they're going to vote for in the U.S. elections when talking to their close friends.
- Was that a joke ?
The point I'm making in this thread...
I would trust any poll of my personal American friends living abroad than I would trust a poll of anonymous people here at Elitetrader.com or pre-polls because my friends have specifically told me whom they voted for whereas out of the thousands of ET members...only three have specifically told me whom they would have voted for but that's laughable do to the fact they can not vote in the U.S. elections...they are not U.S. citizens.
- That's the problem with a poll at a forum with a large number of members not even eligible to vote in the U.S. elections but are eligible to vote in a forum poll about whom will win the U.S. elections. A forum poll in which I'm willing to bet by people that complain about the network TV polls.
One defends Biden and the other four defends Trump.
wrbtrader
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The once upon a time best people in Washington are attacking each other in their bid to become relevant again.
Trumpworld’s darkest plot yet is starting to implode
During the final days of President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign, former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon has been desperately fighting to remain relevant in Trumpworld. Bannon’s ideas for getting Trump reelected range from firing FBI Director Christopher Wray to smearing former Vice President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden. And in his desperation, Bannon has even been attacking major Trump allies like former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Attorney General William Barr and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
Vice’s Emanuel Maiberg is reporting that “a series of videos and photos which appear to show Hunter Biden having sex are going viral on a Chinese-language news and video sharing website” co-founded by Bannon. Maiberg notes that “the videos are often narrated by users in English with a Chinese accent, and claim that the explicit photos and videos of Hunter Biden are proof that he’s compromised by the Chinese government.”
So far, however, efforts by Bannon and Giuliani to smear Hunter Biden haven’t made a difference in the presidential election. And even the far-right Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas told Axios’ Jonathan Swan that the e-mails and videos on a hard drive allegedly belonging to the former vice president’s son aren’t having an impact. Cruz told Swan, “I don’t think it moves a single voter.”
“In the past few days,” according to Pentz, Bannon has “lambasted Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, Attorney General William Barr and even Donald Trump himself — calling them ‘weak’ for not pushing for, or bringing about, the immediate firing of FBI Director Christopher Wray.”
“On October 29,” Peltz reports, “Bannon attacked Giuliani even though they’ve been working together to launder the bogus story that first appeared in the New York Post, calling him ‘one of the weak guys around’ Trump.”
In a transcript of that October 29 conversation, according to Peltz, Bannon declared, “Wray must be fired this morning” — and Giuliani agreed with firing Wray, but not until after the election. Bannon, in response, told Giuliani, “You’re one of the weak guys around him. You’re getting weak on me, Rudy. No, you’re weak. You sort of sound like Chris; you spent too much time with Chris Christie. You’re getting weak.”
Bannon also slammed Barr as “another weak link in this chain.”
Your recent message posts in this thread suggest the Trump supporters are eating each other as in growing tension of in fighting especially when it comes to trying to get Trump re-elected at the expense of no longer controlling the Senate.
That I would agree.
They are all great people (Trumps statement) but after a few battles...they turn on each other but that's what happens when the person in charge (Trump) made his entry into the Republican party as a Trojan Horse (reform party).
It weakened them all although enough to squeak by a weak democrat like Hilary Clinton. Hopefully, in the next elections (mid-terms 2022 and President elections 2024) there will be a true republican or at least a 3rd party true to itself and not one that will allow an imposter (reform party) to enter the backdoor or from a trapdoor within the floor that's willing to take down America to make a point.
Republicans and Democrats will learn valuable lesson from the election of 2020.
The one variable I've notice is the importance of social media and concentrated town hall meetings...its more effective than Covid-19 super spreader large crowd gathering rallies. Thus, Covid-19 has taught a new way running an election but we won't know for sure until after the election results if this way of running an election campaign is a new blueprint.
wrbtrader
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I really can't make up my mind as to which of these two screwball is going to win, both sides have some valid points for their predictions. What I do know with absolute certainty is that if Biden wins we will not see any legions of rioters in the streets. If Trump wins nearly every major metro area in this country will see high levels of rioting. How that gets handled is anyone's guess at this point, but eventually a serious response to the violence will be necessary. Hard times coming either way.