We are still in a bear market with a lot of downside momentum. I would like to see a 1-2-3 reversal before I go long in a big way (as described by Vic Sperandeo in "Trader Vic: Methods of a Wall Street Master")
1. A down trend line broken
2. A higher low in the uptrend.
3. Above the previous high in a uptrend
At point 3 the reversal is confirmed and everybody's brother is getting long. A stop run often follows to re-test the penetration at point 3.
I've actually gone long this morning with a timeframe of 2-5 weeks. Although I agree there's still more downside and that this isn't THE bottom to end them all, I think we're in for a small rally to the upside now. Last week had this undescribable capitulation feel to it, at the same time I've seen some stocks get a decent bounce off their lows. Not looking for an argument, we'll see this week and next. But, my guess is that this is the bottom this side of summer.