Will this market go parabolic?
- Thread starter DisciplinedHedg
- Start date
They keep making speaches that assets had become divorced from reality on the downside, but with out a doubt they have created another massive credit bubble on there hands with even more precarious fundamentals.
It hasnt occured to them that this whole system cant support the amount of liabilities it has and taking on more makes everything worse
It hasnt occured to them that this whole system cant support the amount of liabilities it has and taking on more makes everything worse
I am very bullish on the future. We just keep on trending upwards. I can see ES 1300 in fall of 2010.
The fact that nobody is participating in this rally is very bullish to me. It means theres alot of fuel to fire the flame, still.
The fact that nobody is participating in this rally is very bullish to me. It means theres alot of fuel to fire the flame, still.
Quote from failed_trad3r:
I am very bullish on the future. We just keep on trending upwards. I can see ES 1300 in fall of 2010.
The fact that nobody is participating in this rally is very bullish to me. It means theres alot of fuel to fire the flame, still.
because everybody holds the bag
As it goes higher people will start to see their accounts break even and sell
who is in his right mind will put long term in this environment?
If it was gentle uptrend from the lows 5-10% a year with pullbacks maybe people would eventually return
but 0.5% up every single day is not sustainable doesn't matter what
To me, this irrational exuberance upward, will just increase the magnitude of the downward spiral, when that gets triggered. Who knows when that will be though. QE, a major economic event, a major political event.....it's anyone's guess. Anyone who jumps in at this point with both feet, is looking for disaster. We may drift higher still (on this paltry volume), but the big correction will come sooner, rather than later. The current state of the economy, cannot justify and support these levels.
I think you are operating under a few misconceptions.
1. Institutions move markets, not individuals. Selling at "break even" is irrelevant to future market direction.
2. Greed has not left the financial markets. In fact, it may have gotten stronger over the past year. Therefore, even if individual accounts had the power to significantly move markets, I highly doubt most will sell @ "break even". Greed/irrational exuberance/whatever you want to call it, will prevail. As accounts near the break even point, individuals are more likely to say "I'll keep holding while it's going up. Then get out before the market stumbles." Have you seen this scenario before?
Ignore it now but this market is ALREADY in another bubble, you can laugh and believe what you want but the fact is that a new bubble is forming at this very second, with rates at 0% and liquidity being pushed through the system the next bubble has arrived thanks to no other but BUBBLE ben bernanke, he is following greenspan perfectly, remember that the only way to keep this economy from falling under is to pump it up with liquidity and that is what they are doing at this very second, what is happening in this market right now is not healthy. I said the same thing back a few years ago with the housing bubble and credit bubble. Most are ignoring the fact that there is a bubble in the making, they will ignore until well after the fact. Can the market continue to rise? Of course it can, I'm not trying to say the rally is over, all I'm saying is that many have already forgot about the credit crisis just a year ago. Amazing how they continue to pump the market higher making it "feel" the worst is over. Who knows what to expect, all I can say is that as healthy as this market may feel in reality its far from it.