Will the S&P hit 1300 in February?

Will the S&P top 1300 in February?

  • Yes it will go higher than 1300

    Votes: 48 36.4%
  • No, it won't top 1300, I agree with the bird

    Votes: 55 41.7%
  • I don't know/I can't form opinions/the bird is a moron

    Votes: 29 22.0%

  • Total voters
    132
Quote from ACM Trader:

Dear Rubber, even a system with a 50% probability such as flipping a coin can generate a 1 out 5, in a series of flips. Could have been 0 out 5 for that matter, but the flip coin expectancy is still 50% overall.

true. your point?
 
My point is that trading is a probability game where 50% is likely the most accurate odd of any calls (volonte or yours) but that letting your profits run when you are right and cut your losses when you are wrong provides the best edge to make money. But maybe you have a better system with a better probability. The system I run right now, based on two days swing, generates a better probability betwen 50% and 58%, but even a year at 50% I make money because the winners are bigger.
 
Quote from ACM Trader:

My point is that trading is a probability game where 50% is likely the most accurate odd of any calls (volonte or yours) but that letting your profits run when you are right and cut your losses when you are wrong provides the best edge to make money.

that's nice. although it has nothing to do with what i'm referring to. 50% is the most likely odds of any call? really? I call that the S&P will get over 1300 by the end of June. is that 50/50 odds?

volote asked me to pick 6 numbers on the roulette wheel, while he takes the other 30, and then wants to make a 50/50 bet. no dice.

I ask volote to bet me on equal ground. I know more about statistics than volote ever will, and so i'm not afraid to make a 50/50 wager. as you can see, he ran like a scared chicken when I proposed a fair bet. he doesn't have the balls to make a fair bet, he needs the odds 4 to 1 in his favor to battle me.
 
Quote from rubberbird:

are you on drugs?? where do I say this?

looks to me like you're a chicken, weaseling your way out of a FAIR bet.







Quote from rubberbird:

there's a reason they trade at that price, it's 75% chance of the S&P topping 1300 by 3/17/06.

[/B]
 
Quote from rubberbird:

what's with you, psycho boy? Make a fair bet. What's the matter, you need to have the odds 4 to 1 in your favor to battle me on "even" ground?!

Battle me on even ground, 50/50 odds, I'm willing. Are you? And if you're not, get your loser arse off of this thread for good.

what part of this don't you understand, psycho boy ??
 
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