Will the S&P go to 1000 or 1200 ?

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from MKTrader:

Yes, he's proud of that edumacation of his, so no spell checks, please (or grammar/logic/IQ/market knowledge/etc. checks).

He has made up his mind and will not be confused with the facts!

The facts are you are clueless. The proof of this would be easy. Simply post the majority of your posts on this site where there is any "commentary" concerning market direction or value. Cross reference this list by the S&P 500 closing balance that day.

Now note the sheer repetitiveness of your words and how you ignore news and earnings. Then you claim something about fundamentals you cannot deny.

 

[failed_trad3r]

Quote from MKTrader:

Again, the whole point of this thread is a poll. As for the first post, it says "To me, it appears the rally is overextended and on weak legs. I think there could be downside to 1000 as the september-october season arrives coupled with other factors favoring downside. What do you think?"

Sorry, there's no "call" there, only commentary. Learn basic reading comprehension. Learn to spell "definite" and "ad nauseum." You only dig yourself into a deeper hole whe you post.

I haven't made any predictions in my posts. I have simply shown how this rally has no fundamental support and is mostly a product of taxpayer-funded Fed manipulation. You can't argue with that. The data is out there.

This rally does have fundamental support. Taxpayer-funded Fed manipulation is a legitimate fundamental support. That you can't see that, is stupid. You're mixing opinion with reality. Stop dreaming and start seeing the reality!

 

[Humpy]

Any drop is likely to be a smallish pullback in my humble opinion

I can see it motoring on and on - 1250s - yup easily

 

[MKTrader]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

This rally does have fundamental support. Taxpayer-funded Fed manipulation is a legitimate fundamental support. That you can't see that, is stupid. You're mixing opinion with reality. Stop dreaming and start seeing the reality!

failed_trad3r / Rear Ender / All your other screen names:

Go get some pysch help. You need it. There's no point discussing this further. But I'll give it one last shot: manipulated rallies never last. See Japan's attempts at QE since 1990. Stocks can rally longer with hyperinflation (see Zimbabwe), but only with horrifying trade-offs.

"Strong earnings" are largely a product of cost-cutting/automation and "low-ball" estimates (I thought everyone understood that game, but I continually underestimate the ignorance here). Steady, long-term growth, especially the kind that will lead to job growth, isn't in the picture at all right now.

But don't just take my word. Here's a real money manager who has strongly outpeformed the S&P 500 for almost 10 years and has a Ph.D. in Economics (and isn't a Keynesian shill):

http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc101018.htm

Unemployment is hovering around 10% and is closer to 20% using early 1980s computations. Housing is still a huge mess. You can't have a booming economy in this situation, regardless of heavily-massaged, hedonically-adjusted gov't data.

Without the QE2 hype & the Fed coming in three times a week to dump billions in the system, this rally wouldn't have any legs. It doesn't hurt that the SEC selectively decides which short trades to cancel, either.

 

[failed_trad3r]

Quote from MKTrader:

failed_trad3r / Rear Ender / All your other screen names:

Go get some pysch help. You need it. There's no point discussing this further. But I'll give it one last shot: manipulated rallies never last. See Japan's attempts at QE since 1990. Stocks can rally longer with hyperinflation (see Zimbabwe), but only with horrifying trade-offs.

"Strong earnings" are largely a product of cost-cutting/automation and "low-ball" estimates (I thought everyone understood that game, but I continually underestimate the ignorance here). Steady, long-term growth, especially the kind that will lead to job growth, isn't in the picture at all right now.

But don't just take my word. Here's a real money manager who has strongly outpeformed the S&P 500 for almost 10 years and has a Ph.D. in Economics (and isn't a Keynesian shill):

http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc101018.htm

Unemployment is hovering around 10% and is closer to 20% using early 1980s computations. Housing is still a huge mess. You can't have a booming economy in this situation, regardless of heavily-massaged, hedonically-adjusted gov't data.

Without the QE2 hype & the Fed coming in three times a week to dump billions in the system, this rally wouldn't have any legs. It doesn't hurt that the SEC selectively decides which short trades to cancel, either.

were at S&P 1180 from 670. If you call that fake, then you're a lousy trader, and nobody should listen to you.

 

[MKTrader]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

were at S&P 1180 from 670. If you call that fake, then you're a lousy trader, and nobody should listen to you.

FWIW, I was long for the bulk of the rally since March '09. But good job not engaging any of the points. I figured it was all well above your pay grade.

As for the recovery and rally being "fake," the article I linked summed it up nicely:

"One of the arguments for quantitative easing is the notion that the Fed's purchase of $1.5 trillion of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt somehow 'pulled the U.S. economy back from the abyss' of a Depression. But a closer examination of the past 19 months suggests that a much more specific mechanism - suspension of truthful disclosure - was actually the key element. Unfortunately, the benefits of this suspension are also impermanent, because the underlying solvency problems have been left unaddressed."

 

[fly down]

Quote from MKTrader:

failed_trad3r / Rear Ender / All your other screen names:

Go get some pysch help. You need it.

Well said. What type of psycho needs 2 different aliases for the same thread ??!!

Quote from failed_trad3r:

you had the market go 20% against you on

Quote from Nine_Ender:

So you "only" missed by 17% on a

 

[volente_00]

Quote from fly down:

Well said. What type of psycho needs 2 different aliases for the same thread ??!!

The kind that has started 50 threads since 2004 about the S&P topping that have all been wrong under ever single alias they have ever used



jamestock
rubberbird
thorn
ghostzapper
browshan
flydown

 

[S2007S]

Once they get the dow into positive territory its all up from there straight into the close, within the next few hours all indexes should be close to .5%, they will not let this market close down on the week.

 

[S2007S]

Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule
Across all operations in the schedule listed below, the Desk plans to purchase approximately
$32 billion. This is the amount of principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS expected to be received between mid-October and mid-November.
Printer verions Printer version

Operation Date1

Settlement Date

Operation Type2

Maturity Range


October 15, 2010

October 18, 2010

Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase

10/31/2014 – 9/30/2016



October 18, 2010

October 19, 2010

Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase

10/31/2016 – 8/15/2020



October 20, 2010

October 21, 2010

Outright TIPS Purchase

1/15/2011 – 2/15/2040



October 22, 2010

October 25, 2010

Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase

4/15/2013 – 9/30/2014



October 26, 2010

October 27, 2010

Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase

2/15/2021 – 8/15/2040



October 28, 2010

October 29, 2010

Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase

4/15/2012 – 3/31/2013



November 1, 2010

November 2, 2010

Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase

4/15/2013 – 9/30/2014



November 4, 2010

November 5, 2010

Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase

10/31/2014 – 9/30/2016



November 8, 2010

November 9, 2010

Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase

10/31/2016 – 8/15/2020