will the rally continue?

G

gharghur2

A nice kickoff to the week, which was forecasted by monday and tuesday's activity in europe: see "strong opening tomorrow".

All three indices registered 1+% gains. The COMPX 2166.86 closed within the lower end of the resistance zone 2165 - 2185. And, the INDU and INX closed within about 1% of their August closing highs: INDU 10,589.24 (10,697.59), INX 1233.39 (1245.04).

Yet I still believe this is a counter trend rally, in an ongoing correction from the August highs. And, the market leader COMPX is still nearly 3% from it's August closing high (2218.15). Thus, I feel most of the gains for the week have been had.

Looking for possibly a down day tomorrow, followed by a push into the COMPX 2170s to end this rally. And, then a resumption of the correction that started in early August.

COMMENTS?

Tony
 
some rally ...

Year to date : ( approx % up , down
up , down , yada , yada , yada )


Dow Jones Index ...

down 4 1/2 % , up 6 % down 9 % ,
up 6.5 % , down 6.5 % up 5 % down 3 1/3 %
and up since the last recent low a few %

no if someone out there has an ouiji board
and swing trades for the fences

then they have an over 40 % return YTD

:p
 
Quote from bladerunner:

follow the oil.
More...

Hi...Good point!

I have... after expecting oil to top in the $69 -$70 area ($70.85), I'm now expecting the decline to continue to the $60 - $61 zone over the next few weeks. Then another rally to new highs to end it.

Tony
 
Quote from SethArb:

some rally ...

now if someone out there has an ouiji board
and swing trades for the fences

then they have an over 40 % return YTD

:p
More...

Hi Seth...

I believe you have to have a game plan for each day to successfully trade the markets. If you don't you give them the advantage. Just sharing my game plan for this week.

If the markets move differently I'll know then to adjust, or just stand aside.

Aren't ouiji boards part of the occult :)

Tony
 
ROC...

You are exactly correct!

Not only has the NYSE made new highs but it has outperformed the INX and INDU since mid 2004. Definitely shows that the breath of the market is very strong.

Also, check RUT vs COMPX and then BBH vs them both.

Thank you for pointing that out.

Tony
 
If oil goes up to $100 per barrel and then "tumbles" !! to $98, market will cheer and push the indexes 30% higher :D
Just to remind you that oil today tumbled to $66 !!!.and I could fill my tank with cheap gas of $3.24:eek:
 
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