I didn't read the entire thread-so forgive me, but didn't ECB raise rates this week? If so that puts pressure on Ben. Heck a recession is long over due. We should have had a real one after 911. Get it on and over with.
Since this is such convoluted, unnecessarily complicated contract (underlying is an average of the ENTIRE month of august, instead of one specific day like it should be.), looking at the quote probably won't help you.
Leesman on CNBC said that the Fed Funds futures are pricing in (only) a 21% chance of a rate hike... so I guess we'll just have to take his word for it. Notice how greatly this figure diverges from the expectations of the great minds here on ET.