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Will the Fed pause on Tuesday?
- Thread starter Rearden Metal
- Start date
Quote from Bitstream:
me thinks u havent been tradin' for long; u are not after real odds but chasin' massive standard deviation one-in-a-lifetime-events. on a note, all these kinda trades that have been taken on this board have ended up disasterously.
one in a lifetime event? recessions are not once in a lifetime events.
I'm talking about buying puts to profit from a recession. If you DON'T think there's a recession coming, explain WHY you think that is so. Arguments like "the market looks healthy" don't cut it. Why will the market go up through 2nd half 06 and through 07, and not go down?
You're judging and reacting to the "contrarian-ness" of the idea, and not realizing it's based on fundamentals and results that have been occurring over the past year. Our economy is headed towards a recession, like it or not.
Quote from BrandNewTrader:
one in a lifetime event? recessions are not once in a lifetime events.
I'm talking about buying puts to profit from a recession. If you DON'T think there's a recession coming, explain WHY you think that is so. Arguments like "the market looks healthy" don't cut it. Why will the market go up through 2nd half 06 and through 07, and not go down?
You're judging and reacting to the "contrarian-ness" of the idea, and not realizing it's based on fundamentals and results that have been occurring over the past year. Our economy is headed towards a recession, like it or not.
i dont form opinions...deadly and detrimental; i just weight the odds and never look for sigma events that are unpredictable and need to happen exactly in your timeframe since u are purchasin' options; u are talkin' about a 50% drop in the next 6months for the major indexes. there's nothin' contrarian about your idea, is just another bearish trap mentality that has flooded the mkt and various boards recently, nobody knows if we are goin' into a recession, we could soft land and decline slowly makin' your deep otm worhtelss even if prices goes your way. fundamentals also are too complex for me and u to figure out and so uncorrelated to the mkt for long periods of time that any guess outside companies earnings and its short term effect for the mkt is just a gamble.
Quote from BrandNewTrader:
one in a lifetime event? recessions are not once in a lifetime events.
I'm talking about buying puts to profit from a recession. If you DON'T think there's a recession coming, explain WHY you think that is so. Arguments like "the market looks healthy" don't cut it. Why will the market go up through 2nd half 06 and through 07, and not go down?
You're judging and reacting to the "contrarian-ness" of the idea, and not realizing it's based on fundamentals and results that have been occurring over the past year. Our economy is headed towards a recession, like it or not.
you are attempting to call both magnitude >25% and direction
in a short time frame. That is a once in a lifetime call.
My advice is to have you unwind your options positions on spy.
Then place 1/10 of that in purchasing puts on the same strikes ES mini futures puts.
you can thank me later for saving your ass
Quote from Bitstream:
he needs the mkt to tank really fast in a precise point in time...i dont think the geezer really has a clue of how really things have to line up and if he has he's tradin' a vision...typical of noobers and gamblers.
yes well if you can't talk him out of the dream, at least point out the correct vehicle(IMHO)
Quote from hans37:
yes well if you can't talk him out of the dream, at least point out the correct vehicle(IMHO)
the problem is the choice of strike and exp; it just wont do if the mkt declines at a slow pace and even it will tank all of the sudden lets say a month before exp his lottery ticket would have suffered so much theta pressure that delta wont react enough to cover his costs.
Quote from hans37:
you are attempting to call both magnitude >25% and direction
in a short time frame. That is a once in a lifetime call.
My advice is to have you unwind your options positions on spy.
Then place 1/10 of that in purchasing puts on the same strikes ES mini futures puts.
you can thank me later for saving your ass
I agree with you & (especially) 'stream.
Just one question though: Besides the tax advantages if his lottery tickets were to pay off (they won't), why do you say ES puts are preferable over SPY?