Will the election be the catalyst that pushes the market back down?

[Cuddles]

Market rallies under Biden. If Trump wins it will tank as he will go after Big Tech for being monopolies. The chaos was cute round one, but adults are needed now... not to mention historically markets outperform under democrats as a little icing on the cake.

As much as this country needs Biden to win, no way it rallies on his win. Your thesis on Trump going after tech is also suspect as Trump's only bell weather is keeping the market up.

I'd say it tanks and starts recovering on a Biden win eventually. It likely rallies slightly on a Trump win and crashes spectacularly who knows when. He'd probably go after tech as you mention eventually (already going after google).

 

[up300konngz]

The market will crash to whatever percentage and price I decide to close my single micro lot MNQ long trade at.

I have been doing this for some years now, first on the minis, and then on micros. My last one was on the microYM. That was a good one. I closed the position and that defined the bottom. I remember the price. 26,400 a few weeks ago. I created that recent bottom, because that is where I took the loss by selling 2 longs (exit).

So how far do you guys want this market to drop? Just let me know where you want the exit, because where I exit will become the bottom.

I think it will move back up this upcoming week. Crash comes closer to election time...IMO. Could be totally wrong b/c I am not a smart man when it comes to market moves. LOLL.

lmbaooo@last paragraph.

 

[Cuddles]

I think it will move back up this upcoming week. Crash comes closer to election time...IMO. Could be totally wrong b/c I am not a smart man when it comes to market moves. LOLL.

lmbaooo@last paragraph.

I do think the market may react prior to election (sell the rumor)

 

[up300konngz]

I do think the market may react prior to election (sell the rumor)

but historically...from my research...the election doesnt have any effect on the market. i dont think it did the last time either...that i can recall.

to be real....might have to be something bigger than the election to break the back of the market again. BUT WHAT? hmm...thats the question...

im even thinking we might have lots of runups and selloffs until the economy actually recovers. i heard some analysts say it will trade sideways for years...so...if theres not something that breaks the back of the market again.........then i guess that trading sideways makes sense.

but previous market crashes....do have a part ii. its the initial run up...then the crash...then the next run up...and then finally crash before trading sideways. please believe i got my stops set low. i wont make the mistake of not having those set again...

 

[yogi_trader]

As much as this country needs Biden to win, no way it rallies on his win. Your thesis on Trump going after tech is also suspect as Trump's only bell weather is keeping the market up.

I'd say it tanks and starts recovering on a Biden win eventually. It likely rallies slightly on a Trump win and crashes spectacularly who knows when. He'd probably go after tech as you mention eventually (already going after google).

Sell a straddle on SPY for maximum disappointment and emotional hedge with a +125 Trump win at your local online book?

 

[kroxobor]

Are you serious??

Where were you when the S&P500 went down 35% in a just a month after the Covid thing, for instance?

Do you think that maybe, just maybe, you could have profited ($$$) from that fantastic downtrend (what some traders call "crash")?

S&P 500 1h chart with a simple 250-period moving average:

It looked like a downtrend when it started but with hindsight, as the market fully recovered, we can say that it quickly turned into sharp bullish correction.

Downtrends have been never seen before they shape

 

[Market_Diver]

Trump cares about the market. He will never let the market to crash under his Presidency. Covid did give some impact but somehow the market broke all time high again. If Covid could barely make an impact on Trump's markets, then I don't know what will.

Trump will do whatever he can to keep the market going up.

 

[Tradex]

Downtrends have been never seen before they shape

What??

Downtrends do not usually appear out of nowhere, they give the trader plenty of clues on the smaller time frames.

For instance they:

1: form a bearish chart pattern of some kind (Head and Shoulders, double tops, etc...)
2: start printing shooting stars, bearish engulfing candles, wide-range exhaustion bars and other reversal candlesticks.
3: break up-trendlines.
4: break horizontal support levels.
5: print lower highs and lower lows on the chart.
6: force the price to close and stay under a moving average.
7: force the RSI (and other stochastic indicators) to turn from overbought to oversold.

And ...

8: 95% of ET members are bullish and screaming : "BUY, BUY, BUY!!!"

 

[KCalhoun]

looks like down lately SPY

 

[newwurldmn]

Trump cares about the market. He will never let the market to crash under his Presidency. Covid did give some impact but somehow the market broke all time high again. If Covid could barely make an impact on Trump's markets, then I don't know what will.

Trump will do whatever he can to keep the market going up.

the market rallied on Covid because of 4 trillion dollars of stimulus. Whose going to pay for that?