Most likely we're going into the recession, last news shows that capacity utilization rate fell more than 3% year-over-year and this is means that GDP is going down too.
Will the economy collapse in 2016?
- Thread starter Phill Twist
- Start date
http://www.seattleglobalist.com/201...r-buicks-shine-in-chinese-luxury-market/25116
Buick was always pretty popular in China and they cost more than in US. The article shows 2013 data, so not sure about current info:
"In 2013, Buick sold more than 809,918 cars in the Chinese market—nearly four times as many as it sold in the U.S. That year, more than 78 percent of total Buick sales came from China. In its press release on those sales figures, the company touted 2013 as “best in brand’s 110-year history.” And in the first quarter of 2014, according to Forbes, Buick posted a nearly 14-percent increase in sales globally.
Buicks generally cost more in China than in the U.S. For 2014, the Buick LaCrosse 3.0 L V-6 SIDI IntelliTech Flagship costs 369,900 RMB, according to Autoweek, about $59,300,based on current exchange rates."
Your debt.
That's shocking - and kinda funny. But why are they buying Buicks?
Are their domestic cars that bad? Or is it one of those things that got lost in translation and they think Buick is like an American Ferrari or something? I've heard a lot of them think NJ is paradise too.
I heard there was a Chinese emperor who owned several Buicks, and this is why they value the brand. But I forgot that they own a lot of our debt, and if they start to sell, we go down with them. Great insight.
The two major trends I am seeing is the oil price plunge and the problems with the Chinese economy. These two developments have kicked off 2016 with a shaky start.
Oil prices are at 12-year lows, currently at $30 a barrel. This has hurt market sentiment. Oil-industry margins have also been soured with BP shedding 4,000 workers. Brazil's state-owned oil company reduced its five-year investment programme by 25%.
The Chinese markets have experienced. The Chinese currency has also been a big topic of discussion with economic mismanagement leading to some severe issues. There appears to be a problem in China between market and state control.
Oil prices are at 12-year lows, currently at $30 a barrel. This has hurt market sentiment. Oil-industry margins have also been soured with BP shedding 4,000 workers. Brazil's state-owned oil company reduced its five-year investment programme by 25%.
The Chinese markets have experienced. The Chinese currency has also been a big topic of discussion with economic mismanagement leading to some severe issues. There appears to be a problem in China between market and state control.
Confidence in Central Banks is decreasing. FED and PBOC in focus at this time. FED seems out of touch with present conditions. Deflation seems the risk.
The mystique of highly competent Chinese management is broken combined with lack of transparancy where some guess that GDP is 3% and increasing NPL's will be managed as zombies in the shadows.
Expect currency battes in Asia and a stress test of FX reserves from lessons learned in late 90's. See if they can manage competitive devaluations with simultaneous capital flight.
Yen to the moon, Alice, and US dollar strength to follow despite fed walking back further 2016 hikes. Treasuries to the moon. Thats one/the bear scenario.
Lack of confidence in central banks need to be restored. How?
Oil is such a big deal and was brushed off as a positive thing for developed and their consumers with the effects transitory worse case. They really underestimated this.
At what level of credit stress, inflation break evens, stockmarket corrections
Would they resume debt purchases( what kind? Distressed?) to implement NIRP.
All this is "past and in the mirror" so means nothing but these conditions may persist in 2016.
The mystique of highly competent Chinese management is broken combined with lack of transparancy where some guess that GDP is 3% and increasing NPL's will be managed as zombies in the shadows.
Expect currency battes in Asia and a stress test of FX reserves from lessons learned in late 90's. See if they can manage competitive devaluations with simultaneous capital flight.
Yen to the moon, Alice, and US dollar strength to follow despite fed walking back further 2016 hikes. Treasuries to the moon. Thats one/the bear scenario.
Lack of confidence in central banks need to be restored. How?
Oil is such a big deal and was brushed off as a positive thing for developed and their consumers with the effects transitory worse case. They really underestimated this.
At what level of credit stress, inflation break evens, stockmarket corrections
Would they resume debt purchases( what kind? Distressed?) to implement NIRP.
All this is "past and in the mirror" so means nothing but these conditions may persist in 2016.
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